LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 15

Week 15 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) over St. Louis Rams

Pick 2: Seattle Seahawks (-7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Pick 3:  INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5.5) over Houston Texans

Pick 4: Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Pick 5: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* 49ers (-5.5) over BUCCANEERS

* Packers (+7.5) over COWBOYS

* Jets (+11) over PANTHERS

* Bears (+1) over BROWNS

* Eagles (+5) over VIKINGS

Contest Record last week: 4-1
Contest Record Year-to-date: 38-30-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 35-34-1

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 14

Skipped posting Week 13 picks. I went 4-1 last week (1-4 in "On the Bubble" picks)

Week 14 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Miami Dolphins

Pick 2: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over New York Giants

Pick 3: ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams

Pick 4: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills

Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS



ON THE BUBBLE:

* BENGALS (-6) over Colts

* FALCONS (+3.5) over Packers

* Cowboys (+1) over BEARS

* SAINTS (-3.5) over Panthers

* Chiefs (-3.5) over REDSKINS

Contest Record last week: 4-1
Contest Record Year-to-date: 34-29-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 31-33-1

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 12

Skipped posting another week of picks. I went 3-2 last week (1-4 in "On the Bubble" picks)

Week 12 Super Contest odds.

Week 12 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+9) over Detroit Lions

Pick 2: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+10) over Houston Texans

Pick 3: ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Pick 4: NY GIANTS (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Pick 5: OAKLAND RAIDERS (+1) over Tennessee Titans





ON THE BUBBLE:

* Chargers (+4.5) over CHIEFS

* Panthers (-4) over DOLPHINS

* PACKERS (-5) over Vikings

* Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS

* RAMS (-1) over Bears

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 27-26-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 28-27

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 10

I took a bye last week from picks to recover from all the beating I'm taking here. Kidding. I just forgot to post my picks. Went 3-2 in my picks, 2-3 in "On the Bubble" picks.

Week 10 Super Contest odds.

Week 10 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: TENNESSEE TITANS (-11.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick 2: Seattle Seahawks (-6) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Pick 3: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Pick 4: Denver Broncos (-7) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Pick 5: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* Panthers (+6) over 49ERS

* CARDINALS (-2.5) over Texans

* PACKERS (-1.5) over Eagles

* Redskins (-2.5) over Vikings

* Lions (-2.5) over Bears

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 21-22-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 25-20

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 8

I'm not even gonna try give an excuse... maybe I'm just not cut out for this.... arghhhhh!

Week 8 Super Contest odds.

And just my picks today with no explanation: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins

Pick 2: CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over NY Jets

Pick 3: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Pick 4: Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* 49ers (-16.5) over Jaguars (played in London)

* EAGLES (-5.5) over NY Giants

* PACKERS (-9.5) over Vikings

* BROWNS (+7.5) over Chiefs

* Cowboys (+3.5) over Lions

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 16-18-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 19-16

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 7

Time to pick up my slack... gonna dig in real deep here....

Week 7 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: Denver Broncos (-6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I'm riding this Broncos offense to cover "less than a TD" spreads as long as .... well... it gets cold out there!

Pick 2: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2) over Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are just not so good. Especially on the road. The Steelers might get on a roll here to be a player in the AFC North. Watch out!

Pick 3: Chicago Bears (+1) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
High scoring game here. The Redskins will keep this close. The Bears have a deceivingly bad secondary that depends far too much on turnovers. Will be a fun game!

Pick 4: San Francisco 49ers (-4) over TENNESSEE TITANS
The 49ers against Ryan Fitzpatrick? And Chris Johnson is going against that run D? I really like the 49ers here... even on the road

Pick 5: San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This spread is so attractive to pass up on. The Chargers are entering that sneaky good team zone. And the Jaguars .... meh!

ON THE BUBBLE:

* CHIEFS (-6.5) over Texans: Chiefs D vs those Texans D! Over/under on number of pick-6s this game?

* EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys: Going to be another high scoring game here. Wow these NFC East teams just hat to play D, uh?

* Patriots (-4) over JETS: Gronk or no Gronk, The Pats own the Jets. Plucky Jets might score a bit against this decimated Pats D, but Brady is not going to lose to the Jets.

* Bengals (+2.5) over LIONS: The Bengals D had a bad game against the Bills. Guess, they were just not prepared to defend the read option. Not much read option this week with the Lions. Riding the Bengals D here.

* Seahawks (-6.5) over CARDINALS: The Seahawks should win this low scoring game. Still think they win by more than a touchdown with the help of a defensive score. Hello Carson Palmer!

Contest Record last week: 1-4 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 13-16-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 16-14

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 6

Yikes!! A weekend of picks to forget.... lotta catching up to do.....

Here are the Week 5 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: CHICAGO BEARS (-7.5) over NY Giants
The Bears seem to be motivated to get back on track after last week's loss to the Saints. Could there be a better opponent to get back on track than the Giants this year. Even if it's on a Thursday night.

Pick 2: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Homer pick here. But I think the Packers should beat a slightly above average Ravens team. The Packers D are very under rated at this point. Might end up being a fairly low scoring game here.

Pick 3: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) over Detroit Lions
Yeah yeah...i know.. Brandon Weeden is starting for the Browns. But I am also betting that Detroit is not going to have Calvin Johnson this game. The Browns D might shutdown a Calvin-less Lions offense. Possibly a shut out!

Pick 4: Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Bengals D should be able to torment Thad Lewis. Yep, I said Thad Lewis!

Pick 5: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Taking the Chargers at home vs a mid-west team travelling out west for a night game, with a let-down game possibility added to the equation

ON THE BUBBLE:

* JETS (-2) over Steelers: This is more of a pick against the Steelers than me liking the Jets

* Eagles (-1.5) over Bucs: Mike Glennon anybody?

* Saints (+2.5) over Patriots: The Saints are IMO the best team in the league. Give them the edge over the Broncos just because they play D.

* COWBOYS (-5.5) over Redskins: The Redskins suck!

* 49ERS (-11) over Cardinals: The Cardinals D is really good. But Carson Palmer might give the niners a few short fields to work with.

Contest Record last week: 1-4 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 12-12-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 13-12

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 5

Hanging by a thread here... at least I'm not regressing... allegedly like the Colts were supposed to.

Here are the Week 5 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) over Buffalo Bills
The Browns are on fire. Well.... relative to way they were (0-2) and considering their spark plugs have been Brian Hoyer and Josh Gordon; yep, they are on fire. The Bills on the road? No thank you!

Pick 2: New England Patriots (+2) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Tom Brady vs Andy Dalton! Yeah... i know my sorry ass packers (at least for that week) lost to this Bengals group on the road. Not happening against Brady and his unheralded group of plucky unrestricted free agents.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I'm going to ride these Seahawks on the road 'less than a FG' lines. Let down game for the Colts comes a week later than everyone expected.

Pick 4: Denver Broncos (-7.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Broncos offense can't be run any more efficiently than how Peyton Manning is doing it at the moment. Easy cover freight train!

Pick 5: San Diego Chargers (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Can't believe this line is so low. Tyrell Pryor might start. But he's just a glorified fantasy star. Not someone that can beat even an average NFL team. Plus, these Chargers might be more than half decent. Well, at least on offense they are.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* FALCONS (-9.5) over Jets: Must win game for the Falcons at home against a rookie QB.

* PACKERS (-7) over Lions: Same logic as for the Falcons. And oh yeah, the Lions haven't won at Lambeau since 1991.

* Saints (PK) over BEARS: The Saints might in fact be the best team in teh NFC (sorry Seattle). We'll know in a few weeks.

* RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars: I have to pick against the Jaguars. Even if it means I'm betting on Sam Bradford! Yikes!!!!

* Panthers (-2) over CARDINALS: Sneaky good Panthers. Watch out for them along with the Titans (when Locker is back) to be the sneaky good surprises this year.

Contest Record last week: 3-1-1 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 11-8-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 10-10

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 4

Another mediocre 3-2 week for me. Hey, at least it's not getting worse... not yet anyways!

Here are the Week 4 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns did the opposite of what I thought they would do. They rallied together for a statement win. The statement being: "Management might want us to tank. But we are going to fight!". Well... that rally has run it's course. They usually don't last that long. Especially if you face a solid solid team like the Bengals.

Pick 2: Baltimore Ravens (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Ravens offense is going to have that high scoring aberration game against that sorry Bills defense.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
I know the Seahawks are on the road. And the Texans are not an easy out. But the Seahwaks defense should keep this game close. And there are very few QBs in this league that I trust more in close games than Russel Wilson.

Pick 4: DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles
Peyton Manning is going to carve up that Eagles D..... yep... the Eagles have a D... i know it is hard to notice... unless of course they play Alex Smith. Even he was able to find Donnie Avery for large chunks of yards. Good Lord! Pay your mortgage, folks!

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over New York Jets
Yes. I'm still on the Titans' D train. They are going to feast on the rookie QB, who just played one of the worst defenses in the league (Bills). Welcome to the NFL moment for the rook!

ON THE BUBBLE:

* RAMS (+3) over 49ers: I expect this division game to be close and decided by a FG or less. Taking the home team that is given 3 points. duh! Plus, this is the Thursday Night game. Pay your mortgage with the under!

* Colts (-7.5) over  JAGUARS: The Colts will have to play really really bad to blow this one. This Jaguars team might get some garbage points to keep this close. But I expect a double digits Colts win.

* CHIEFS (-4) over Giants: Yep, I'm thinking the Giants are going to start 0-4. I know that old narrative of these cornered Giants. But I don't see anything in this team that suggests they have any semblance of fight left.

* Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCS: The Bucs are benching Josh Freeman. This is probably going to help them couple weeks down the line. But throwing that Glennon kid to the wolves not going to be pretty this week. The Cardinals have their own woes, but they should be alright this week.

* Dolphins (+6.5) over SAINTS: The Dolphins are for real? Let's see them prove it in prime time on MNF!

Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 8-7

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 7-8

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 3

Making some progress here. I'm probably going to be out of contention if I don't get a few 5-0 weeks now.

Here are the Week 3 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns
The Browns just traded away their best player on offense. Benched their QB for Bryan Hoyer (And yeah, sugar coat it all you want, but he was benched!). The players are either going to pull together and play hard or, do just the opposite - crumble from the feeling that the management brass has given up on the year. I'm betting the later. The Vikings have their own QB controversy brewing, but may take a couple weeks before that's going to pop it's ugly head.

Pick 2: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS 
Yep. My homer pick. I think the Packers will win this game on the road. They are too good a team to start 1-2. Bengals are going to be a tough out though. Hoping the Packers O line can hold it's own against that dreaded Bengal's D-Line. Fingers crossed!

Pick 3: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots are giving only 7 points at home against teh 0-2 Bucs? Only 7 freaking points?!?! As Jason Whitlock would say ..... "Y'all ready to pay your mortgages?". And oh, the Gronk might be back too.

Pick 4: Indianapolis Colts (+10) over the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Nope. This ain't a hater pick. I just think with Trent Richardson now carrying the rock for the Colts, they should be able to cover this easy. Still expect the 49ers to win though.

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) over San Diego Chargers
I'm riding the Titans' D-Train. They seem to be legit. Like them a lot this game, especially at home.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Lions (+2) over REDSKINS: Not sure the Redskins can beat anyone with that Defense.

* Jaguars (+19) over SEAHAWKS: I know! I'm probably the only one that's picking the Jags to cover. I just think 19 points are too much to leave on the table.

* SAINTS (-7) over Cardinals: The Saints D seems under rated. They might be sneaky good. Like the year they won the Super Bowl. Well... good enough to beat Carson Palmer and his hobbled offense anyway.

* COWBOYS (-4) over Rams: Expect this to be a shoot out. Cowboys gonna get this at home.

* Bears (-2.5) over STEELERS: Just picking against the Steelers here. Can't see them beating an average team, let alone a good Bears team.

And yeah... it feels like a " lotta favorites cover" kinda week!


Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 5-5

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 3-7

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 2

Ok, so that was not a hot start for me. Not by a long shot. Went just 2-3 last week. The silver lining is that two of the lines I didn't cover were because of: (1) a dumb late hit penalty by Tampa Bay and (2) a dumb pick 6 by Eli.

So, I'm going to delude myself to thinking I'm onto something here. Here are the Week 2 SuperContest picks.

On to my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: New York Jets (+11.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are a little beat up at WR and RB (Amendola and Vereen are mostly out). Rookie WRs are going to have growing pains. Divisional games are bound to be close more often than not. The Jets D might be legit too. I don't believe the Jets will win this game, but 11.5 is too many points to leave on the table.

Pick 2: CHICAGO BEARS (-6) over Minnesota Vikings
Coach Trestman has this offense humming. The O line looked surprisingly good. Cutler was sharp (except for one throw). Peanut Tillman in the secondary is still that good ol' ball hawk we know him to be. The Vikings looked awful against the Lions. With the Lions loading up defenders in the box, Ponder still couldn't throw much. Recipe for disaster if he can't even throw enough to keep defenses honest and give Adrian Peterson a chance to do his thing.

Pick 3: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) over San Francisco 49ers 
The Seahawks at home. Enough said!
........... And one more thing......... Clearly the Game of the Week! Can't wait!

Pick 4: Carolina Panthers (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Panthers held their own on D against the Seahawks. EJ manual is not going to be any better than Russell Wilson. And the Bills Defense is not as scary as the Seahawks Defense.

Pick 5: Tennessee Titans (+9) over HOUSTON TEXANS
The Titans Defense looked stout. This game will tell me if that was more the ineptitude of the Steelers' offense, or if the Titans indeed are that good. I'm betting on the later.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Once again leaving out my homer pick: PACKERS (-7.5) over Redskins. Just about 4.5 points more than what I'm comfortable with, given the Redskins could pile up garbage points.

* Jaguars (+5.5) over RAIDERS: I'm taking the points in this bottom feeder match up. Pretty confident neither of these two can win a game by over 5 points. Against anybody!

* Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS: The Bucs had a stinker last week. Not putting this in my top 5, because I want to see if the Bucs have a strong rebound. Or they might just be THAT bad!?!

* Lions (-1.5) over CARDINALS: The Lions just might be good. Definitely better than the Cardinals on paper. But can they avoid those dumb plays and put it together?

* Broncos (-4.5) over NY GIANTS: I'm taking Peyton Manning in this match up. But this also has some Giants' "rebound from a stinker" potential.


Contest Record last week: 2-3 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 2-3

"ON THE BUBBE" Record Year-to-date: 1-4

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 1

I'm back! After a long (really really long) hiatus, I'm back!

Thinking of easing myself into writing here again; and not throw myself back to the wolves right away. Let's see how it goes.

Instead of doing the weekly game-by-game picks this season (which almost everyone with access to a computer and the internet does these days), I'm going to try simulate making my Vegas Hilton SuperContest picks here. It is my experiment to see how I'd fare in the real contest and maybe enter it someday (soon... next year.. maybe!).

Also going to drop a few lines with the picks, trying to explain the reasoning behind my picks.

I will be using the odds given by LVH (released every Wednesday around 5PM). You can find them here.

Here are my Week 1 Picks (Home team in CAPS):

Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

Season opener at home for the Saints; they usually win those in the Superdome. Add to it that it's going to double up as a Sean Payton's welcome back party. Pretty strong feeling the Saints got this. The clincher for me is that, the probable regression to the mean for the Falcons (from last year's improbable good luck) is going to catch up to them.

Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are going to be bad. And that could easily be an understatement. The Buccaneers are expected to have an elite defense (especially their secondary) this year. Only if Josh Freeman from the first half of last season shows up, I'm sure I got this too. The under on this game will be a good bet too.

Pick 3: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It's week 1. I'm going to try feast on some tentative lines on games involving certain teams the wise guys (I think) do not seem to have a feel about yet. The Chiefs are one of them. I expect them to be good this year with new head coach Andy Reid and new QB Alex Smith. Weapons like a healthy Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe don't hurt. And did I mention they play the Jaguars this week?

Pick 4: NY Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Giants, of late, have had the Cowboys' number at Jerry World. I'm thinking that trend continues. The Cowboys have a talented roster. No question. But how much confidence can a Bill Callahan co-ordinated offense and a Monte Kiffin co-ordinated defense instill in you?    

Pick 5: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) over Miami Dolphins

The Browns are one of those teams that's expected to be taking a big step forward this year. Weeden has been good this pre-season (for whatever that's worth). Solid Defense coupled with Norv "the offensive co-ordinator" Turner's offense is gonna keep them in most games they play. The Dolphins are another team that's supposedly on an uptick; but I ain't buying that.


On the bubble:

* Was hard for me to leave out my homer pick, the Packers (+4.5) over the Niners. I just can't pick them Packers until I see their defense show some signs of containing the Niners with my own eyes, let alone stop them.

* The Seahawks (-3.5) over the Panthers seems like an easy pick on the surface. But I'm nervous to pick the Seahawks on the road. Maybe a few wins under their belt on the road early this season, and I might start riding them in this contest. Already plan on riding them at home a lot.

* Vikings (+5.5) over the Lions. Thinking.... Adrian Peterson on turf vs that Lions run D? .... Maybe I should have put this as one of my 5 supercontest picks!

* Patriots (-9.5) over the Bills. I need to see how explosive the Patriots offense will be this year with their new WRs and without their alleged felon TE.

* I also overcame the temptation to pick against the Raiders, even though they are given 9.5 points here. The Colts are another team that's expected to regress to the mean (along with the Falcons). I want to wait a week or two before involving these two teams in my final picks.


Contest Record last week: 0-0
Contest Record Year-to-date: 0-0

NFL 2011: Week 16 Picks

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

The Colts are not win-less no more. But Colt fans are concerned they may end up with a better record than the Vikings or the Rams. Not to worry Colts fans! Your No.1 pick is safe. The Texans had a let down loss last week after winning their division. Not happening this week. 

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-6.5)


Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

The Raiders are in a free fall right now. Luckily for them, they get to play the Chiefs a week after the Chiefs beat the then undefeated Packers. Now this game has let down written all over it for the Chiefs. 

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+2.5)
  

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3)


The Broncos under Tebow have been solid on the road. I expect them to keep that streak going against the Bills who have suddenly turned putrid. A win by the Broncos here, will pretty much seal the AFC West. Sorry, Chargers and Raiders!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (-3)
  

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-7)


The Jaguars are bad. On the road, they are horrible. If the Titans can handle MJD, this game will not even be close.  

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7) 


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)

The Dolphins have been hot of late. But not as hot as the Patriots. Especially coming of their win over Tebow...on the road. But I do see back door cover potential here.


Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+10)  


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Colt McCoy may not play this week. Not that it matters. It is the 'alternate game' for the Ravens where they play well and once again rope everyone into believing what a playoff threat they are to the entire league. Seen this act before.  

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-13) 


New York Giants at New York Jets (-3)

IMO.. too much of hype given to this game. It is all just because these are both teams from New York (although they play in Jersey... go figure!). How is this not the game where Eli plays brilliantly to keep the Giants playoffs hopes alive.

Outright Win: Gaints 
v/s the Spread: Giatns (+3) 


Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

The Redskins should be able to take advantage of that Minnesota secondary to pull this one off, in spite of Rex Grossman. Unless he has one of his bad Rex days... not ruling that off.

Outright Win: Redskins
v/s the Spread: Redskins (-6.5) 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

The Bucs are horrible. enough said.

Outright Win: Panthers 
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-7.5) 


San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

This has the makings of a great game. Especially if the Broncos lose their early game. I am not going to pick against the chargers in December, though.

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (+2.5)  


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2)

Nice win for the 49ers on Monday Night. But this game, at Seattle, has tremendous 'let down' potential.

Outright Win: Seahwaks 
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+2) 


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

The Cowboys, in spite of their record, have played extremely well over the last few weeks. The Eagles have been hot the lost couple weeks. Something's gotta give here. I say it is the Eagles.

Outright Win: Cowboys 
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-1.5) 


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Great NFC South showdown. Saints will expose the poser Falcons at home.

Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7) 



Upset Special of the Week


Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

The Cardinals are good. But how good will they be on the road is the question. Both these teams have their playoff hopes alive at this point. And they will both play hard. I like the Cardinals here though, looking at the way they have played the last few weeks.


Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+4)  


Homer Pick of the Week


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Not perfect no more! No problem! We get to play the Forte-less Bears with Josh McCown as their QB? At Lambeau! I'll take that any day of the week!

But for the long haul, the Packers need to do something about their defense. And try get their O line healthy for the playoffs.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

SEAHAWKS (+2) over 49ers
Raiders (+2.5) over CHIEFS
Texans (-6.5) over COLTS
Broncos (-3) over BILLS
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Bucs


Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-8

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 153-71
v/s the Spread Record: 113-97-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 40-33-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 12/21/2011

NFL 2011: Week 12 Picks

Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh!

Go Pack Go!

On to the Picks.....

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The Dolphins have been playing some inspired football the last few weeks. I still do not trust their pass defense so much. But their overall defense has kept them in games, and Matt Moore has capitalized on them. The Cowboys remain this hot and cold team; just as all their counterparts in the NFC East. Which Cowboys team will show up on turkey Day?

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+7)
 

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

As much as I like the style of the 49ers and the way they will themselves to stay in games against good teams. I don't think they can overcome the combination of a short week and the Ravens that plays up (or down) to their competition.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-3) 


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets(-9)

Two horrid teams fighting each other for a chance to be relevant in the AFC. The Bills have officially lost their mojo. The Jets never really seemed to have it.Too many injuries for the Bills to cover this spread.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-9)


Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

The Browns have four wins. No, I'm not kidding. FOUR wins. But if you watch them play, you will understand how underwhelming they look on the field. The Bengals, on the other hand, have played toe to toe with the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks. This should be a piece of cake for them.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-7.5) 


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

The Texans may not have Matt Schaub. But their running game has been clicking in all cylinders, it should not matter so much. And add the return of Andre Johnson to the mix. If Matt Leinart just doesn't turn the ball over, the Texans might be better than the last few weeks. The Jaguars are who they are. A team with a weak offense and sneaky good defense. But they are not going to sneak up on a division rival.

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-3.5) 


Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Panthers finally get a game they can win in spite of that horrible defense. The Colts might get a few yards, but win a game? I just don't see it.

Outright Win: Panthers
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

The Titans have been inconsistent ever since Kenny Britt went down. But with the struggling Bucs in town, they might be able to hang with the Texans for at least one more week. The Bucs also give up a lot of yards on the ground. Hello Chris Johnson!

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (-3) 


Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)

No Adrian Peterson. No problem for the Falcons.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-9.5)  


Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (-4) 

Cutler is out for a few weeks. The Bears will definitely miss him. Yes, the Bears anyways ran their offense through Forte the last few weeks. And their defense and special teams played a big part in their success. But with no Cutler, opposing defenses will load up the box to stop Forte and try make Caleb Hannie beat them through the air.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-4)
  

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The Redskins managed to almost pull off a win against the Cowboys last week. Only reason I think of for the redskins playing them Cowboys tough: divisional opponent. This time on the road at Seattle, its not going to be that easy.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)  


Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5)

The Chiefs may start Tyler Palko or Kyle Orton (who they picked up on waivers today). Whoever they start, I like the Steelers to cover the spread here.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-10.5)
  

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Everybody is down on the Giants this week. Which means the good Giants team will show up. The problem is the Saints are at home and are incredibly tough to beat. Something's gotta give, right?

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Giants (+7) 


Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams (NL)

No line on this game because of the uncertainty on who will start as QB for the Cardinals. Like that matters? Oh no wait, its against the Rams, so it might matter.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: N/A 


New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

Uncertainty about the availability of Mike Vick is the reason for no line here. This is an important game for the Eagles, if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their best chance to do it is if they had Mike Vick in to exploit the Patriots defense. Vince Young might be a "winner", but not when its a shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: N/A


Upset Special of the Week

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-6)

I'm a believer. Timmy Tebow will get it done on the road this time. And he has Norv Turner and Phillip Rivers to shoot themselves in their feet at crunch time to assist him. Tebow now also has added motivation given by his own boss, John Elway unintentionally!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+6) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6.5)

I'm loving this. All the pundits are picking the Lions in an upset here. Which is exactly where the Packers want public opinion to be.

At the same time, I'd be lying if I didn't say I am nervous. The Lions are freaking dangerous.

The Lions match up well against the strengths of the Packers: on offense. They can totally hang with the Packers. To help both teams, both defenses are below average and tend to give up a lot of yards. This is where I am hoping for the Packers to make just more enough game changing plays, maybe turnovers, to make the difference. Fingers crossed!

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6.5)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6.5) over LIONS
Panthers (-3) over COLTS
TITANS (-3) over Buccaneers
SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins
Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 11-3
v/s the Spread Record: 6-6-2

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 107-53
v/s the Spread Record: 80-68-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 30-23-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/23/2011

NFL 2011: Week 11 Picks

Nine-and-oh, baby! Yeah!!!!!

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2)

The hot up start Bills have now cooled down. The Dolphins on the other hand have been playing some good football. Their  two game win streak may not be against great teams, but they are good enough to beat mediocre ones; the Bills are one such team at this point.
 
Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals might have lost to the Steelers last week. But they did show some resolve in coming back from being down 14 points and keeping this close till the end. Unfortunately, the Ravens just lost to the Seahawks and are going to be hungry for another win. I still like the Bengals to keep this close.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+7) 


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (0)

This game has snoozer written all over it. Both these teams have decent enough defenses. Good enough to stymie each other's offenses. I think I'm going to toss a coin to decide this. For real. (Heads - Jaguars and Tails - Browns. Tossing ..... Heads it is!)

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (0) 


Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Could Carson Palmer really be as good as he seemed last Thursday? Or was it just a mirage? The Vikings were killed at Lambeau, but they are sneaky good especially if Adrian Peterson can get his legs going early in the game. Still, I think the Raiders have enough in them to pull this off on the road.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-1) 


Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7) 

The Lions had their worst outing of the season last week at Soldier Field in Chicago. This will be the game that will show us if that was just a blip, or if the Lions are really spiraling  out of contention this season. They should win this game, but by how much is the question. Nothing says they are back on track than a blow out win against the lowly Panthers

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-7) 


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Cowboys are catching the Redskins at the right time. Or maybe this is how the Redskins are going to be rest of the season. They have NO offense. What so ever. A win here will keep Dallas in the NFC East title hunt, right behind the Giants. 

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-8) 


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The Cardinals suddenly find themselves with a two game win streak. Thanks to... wait for it... John Skelton? Ok, now that's not going to last. Not when you have the up start 49ers coming to town. Talking about the niners. They are done with the tough part of their schedule. 5 of their next 6 games are against he NFC West. Phew! The Packers better look out, a small slip up could see the 49ers taking the No.1 seed.

Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+9.5) 


Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams (-1)

Another NFC West match up. The Seahawks beat the Ravens last week. But this one is on the road. And the Rams are seem to be finding their footing. Bradford to Lloyd connection can only get better. In spite of the Seahawks being pretty good against the run, Stephen Jackson is a beast.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (-1) 


Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The see saw ride for the Titans continues. Except for maybe the fact that Chris Johnson could be making a mid-season resurgence. The Falcons are not so hot either. Especially after that 4th down debacle in OT against the Saints. Still, they are at home again. I think they win a close one here

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Titans (+6) 


San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Chargers are just not good this year. Can we all accept that and stop acting surprised every time they goof up? Exact opposite for the Bears. Can we stop acting surprised when the Bears beat good teams? They are GOOD. Especially at home.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-3.5) 


Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)

The Chiefs were not that good to begin with. And now with Tyler Palko playing QB, the question really is how big of a blow out this game is going to be.And oh by the way, the Patriots defense might be making a second half comeback this season. Only this time 2003-04 style (no name defensive players making plays all over the field... hello Julian Edleman!). Watch out folks!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-14.5) 


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5)

Mike Vick most probably won't play this game. The Giants after their loss last week will want to rebound real bad. Vince Young and the porous Eagles run defense will help the giants rack up a win here. But just for high drama's (and high comedy) sake, I would love to see Vince Young carry the Eagles to win here on the road. Will that brew up a QB controversy in Philly?


Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-3.5)


Upset Special of the Week

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+7)

Call me crazy. But I think the Broncos have more than a shot at winning this game. The Jets D is great at defending the pass. I'll give them that. Problem here is Timmy Tebow ain't gonna throw that much. The Jets run defense is nothing to sneeze at, but it's been sub par on the road so far this season. The big match up I'll be looking for here is how the Jets offense can do against the Broncos defense. If Von Miller and gang can torment Sanchez all day, the Broncos have a legit shot at this. Add to it the Jets had like three days to prepare for this game.

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+7) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)

The 9-0 Packers are due a let down game anytime now. Especially this week, coming off what people think was their first "complete" game of the season (offense, defense and special teams). Only problem: Aaron Rodgers remembers the last two times he played the Bucs, he had bad games. And knowing Rodger's penchant for keeping mental notes and getting motivation out of it. He is going to have a big game here.

And yeah, the Bucs kinda suck too.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers
Cowboys (-8) over REDSKINS
PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Chiefs
RAMS (-1) over Seahawks
PACKERS (-14) over Buccaneers

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-7

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 96-50
v/s the Spread Record: 74-62-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 28-20-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/16/2011

NFL 2011: Week 10 Picks

Its Week 10. The Packers are 8-0. Life is good.

Now on to the picks:


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The AFC West seems to be a mess at the moment. Three teams are tied at 4-4 and the Broncos are right behind, trailing by just one game. This game is not only important for both teams to get ahead in the standings, but a tie breaker edge will go a long way especially in such a close division.

Outright Win: Chargers

v/s the Spread: Chargers (-7) 


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

The Bengals finally get a quality opponent to prove to the rest of the league that they are for real. The Steelers on the other hand, get a chance to keep up with the Ravens in the AFC North. Although same can be said about the Bengals. This game will show us a lot more about the Bengals than the Steelers.

Outright Win:  Steelers

v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3) 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Tim Tebow fever was revived last week after they beat the Raiders in the black hole. But doing the same at Arrow Head will be harder. Still, never say never with Tebow. Especially after the Chiefs struggled last week against the win-less Dolphins. This might be the typical rebound game for the Chiefs after a tough loss.

Outright Win:  Chiefs

v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-3) 


Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Jaguars had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. That's way too much time for an opponent that seems to be tanking on purpose. Add to the equation that the Jaguars defense is sneaky good; especially their pass defense.

Outright Win:  Jaguars

v/s the Spread: Jaguars (-3) 


Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bills had a tough loss against the Jets, who just shut their offense down. Period. The Cowboys might have a better front four than the Jets. But the Dallas secondary is weak. The Bills should score some, and the Cowboys should be able to score against the Bills too. That kid Demarco Murray seems to be for real. I think this will be a close game at the end.

Outright Win: Cowboys

v/s the Spread: Bills (+5.5) 



Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

The Texans after a couple of weeks of facing bad teams, face an average to above average teams. Can their offense keep up the good work? The Bcus have their own problems. Josh Freeman seems to have regressed this season. And the Legarette Blount isn't the burner he shows glimpses of being.

Outright Win: Texans

v/s the Spread: Texans (-3) 



Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Titans are really missing Kenny Britt to get their offense going. Chris Johnson had a decent game last week. If at all he is going to have a break out game, it would be this week against the Panthers. Cam Newton will have another good game to pad up his candidacy for the rookie of the year. This time, it might come with a Win.

Outright Win: Panthers

v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 


Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (-4)

The Redskins are bad. Really bad. They find it so hard to score any points these days. Miami is coming off their first win of the season. You might think that will lead to a let down game this week. But not against this Redskins team. And the Dolphins have a pretty good defense.

Outright Win: Dolphins

v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-4) 


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (PK)

This is a huge game for the NFC South race. The Falcons seem to getting back on track. I will be convinced of that only if they can show up and play this game tight. The Saints seem to struggle on the road this season. The dome in Atlanta will be loud and ready for them.

Outright Win: Falcons

v/s the Spread: Falcons (0) 


St Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Rams have a chance if Stephen Jackson carries this team on his back. They might need a little more from Sam Bradford and the WRs more as a decoy to clear lanes for Jackson. The Rams defense does not face a big challenge when facing the Browns. Still, the Brown might have just enough in them, if they can only keep it close in the first quarter.

Outright Win: Browns

v/s the Spread: Browns (-2.5) 



Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

This is going to be a closely fought NFC North game. The Lions beat the Bears at home earlier in the year. This time, the Lions will not have their crowd noise that helped get so many Bears penalties at Soldier Field. Also, it is going to be cold in the mid-west this week. Advantage Bears.

Outright Win: Bears

v/s the Spread: Bears (-3) 


New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The Giants managed to pull off another upset of the Patriots, this time at Foxboro. It felt so eerily like that Super Bowl game in 2008 (2007-08 season). Now the Giants are on the road against the up start 49ers. This could be a let down game for the Giants, except that the complacency might be mitigated by the fact that they are playing a team that has just one loss on the season. The 49ers on the other hand, have not played may teams this season which are as good as the Giants all round.

Outright Win: Giants 

v/s the Spread: Giants (+3.5) 


New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1)

Patriot fans have their hands on the panic button. But they don't have to. Yup, their defense is in shambles, and Tom Brady has not been so hot last couple weeks. Still, they have Tom Brady! They will be alright. The Jets seem to be finding their identity again, especially on defense. This what makes this an interesting meeting this week.

Outright Win:  Patriots

v/s the Spread: Patriots (+1) 


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

The Cardinals secondary is the exact medicine this beaten up Eagles offense needs. I don't think this will be a 20+ point blowout. But the Eagles should have a comfortable victory under their belt here. Also, Skelton filling in for Kevin Kolb makes it a little easier for the Eagles on defense too.

Outright Win: Eagles

v/s the Spread: N/A


Upset Special of the Week


Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+7)

The Ravens are coming of an emotional win against the Steelers. Recipe for a let down game? There is definitely a chance especially at Seattle. Joe Flacco won one last week. Don't think he can do it again. And Seattle has a sneaky good run defense to hold off Ray Rice.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+7) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

The Packers are 8-0..... (Pinching myself...) ... Yup, 8-and-freaking-0!

Still, there are a lot of concerns for this Packer team. The offense is alright. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, and that could be an understatement, if it is even possible. The problem is the Packers seem to be relying solely on the offense to carry them week in and week out. The defense seems to be making some big plays sporadically. But, they still rank near the very end on pass defense. And give up a ton of yards overall. Zeroing on specifics, they are not generating enough pass rush with their defensive front. Bringing in extra men, isn't helping much either. The new problem they had this week is communication breakdown in the secondary leading to big plays to the opponents. I would like to think these are all correctable issues. Fingers crossed.

This week will be a good time to correct some of those against the Vikings.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13.5) 


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3) over Lions
DOLPHINS (-4) over Redskins
Steelers (-3) over BENGALS
SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens
Jaguars (-3) over COLTS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 8-6
v/s the Spread Record: 8-6

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 87-43
v/s the Spread Record: 66-55-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 23-20-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/09/2011

NFL 2011: Week 8 Picks

Due to lack of time, just the quick Picks:

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-9)

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (-9)


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5)

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+9.5)


Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Outright Win: Panthers
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3.5)


New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+14)

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-14)


Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-12.5)


Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-9.5)

Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-9.5)


Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-6)

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-6)


Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (+3)

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-3)


New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-3)


Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-9)

Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: Browns (+9)


Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-3)


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
 
Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (+3.5)


Upset Special of the Week


San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4)

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (+4)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS (+4) over Chargers
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Vikings
Patriots (-3) over STEELERS
GIANTS (-9.5) over Dolphins
Cowboys (+3.5) over EAGLES


Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 8-5
v/s the Spread Record: 6-6-1

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 70-33
v/s the Spread Record: 53-41-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 19-15-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 10/27/2011

NFL 2011: Week 7 Picks

Not so hot Week 6 picks against the spread. Hoping to do better here:


Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) [* in London]

Too bad for the Bucs losing a home game to London. But they are coming of a nice road win against the Saints. Can they keep it up against the Bears? The Bears did their part in demolishing the Vikings. Finally, Mike Martz seems to have found out how to get most off that Chicago offensive arsenal he has. By "offensive arsenal", I mean Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.

Outright Win:  Bears 
v/s the Spread: Bears (-1) 


Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

The Redskins finally got to see bad Rex and now John Beck will take over reigns in Washington. Mike Shanahan might just end up shuffling his QBs like he shuffles his RBs; just have that feeling. The Panthers finally get an uninspired game by Cam. Are defenses on him? Or was it just an off night? He is the only reason they have a chance of winning a few games this year. Their run game is nothing to boast of and their defense is just plain awful. I'd still take him and the Panthers this game over John Beck's Redskins.

Outright Win: Panthers  
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-2.5)


San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (+2)

Rex Ryan and Norv Turner are already exchanging verbal barbs. Borrrring! Lets just get this game going. The over achieving Jets against the under achieving Chargers. The Chargers D might not be as dominant as in years past, but they are going against Sanchez and that anemic Jets offense. Something's gotta give here. My bet is on the Chargers D keeping the Jets offense in "struggle" mode. But this game will be closer than people think because the Jets D is for real.

Outright Win: Chargers 
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-2)


Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3)

The Seahawks are on the road again. I am going on a limb here and saying their win against the flaky Giants on the road couple weeks ago was just an aberration. The Browns are better than people think they are. And the more time Colt McCoy plays under this west coast offense, the Browns are going to get better.

Outright Win:  Browns 
 v/s the Spread: Browns (-3)


Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

No Andre Johnson? I don't expect too much out of these Texans. Their defense already has taken a few steps back with the injury to Mario Williams. The Titans, coming off that bye, could take the inside track to this division with a win here. Matt Hasselbeck will get his team to play hard after that beating they took against the Steelers couple weeks ago.

Outright Win:  Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-3)


Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The Falcons have finally figured that they have to win games the way they did last year. Run the ball and use Matt Ryan's arm just to move the chains. Can they stick to that plan, is the question. The Lions will be pissed after last weeks loss to the 49ers. They will come guns blazing at home this week. And their stadium will be LOUD. More penalties for the Falcons!

Outright Win:  Lions 
v/s the Spread: Lions (-3.5)



Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4.5)

I really like the Carson Palmer trade for the Raiders. Yeah, steep prize to pay, but I think Palmer makes them an immediate contender this season. I am aware about the last couple years of futile performances of Palmer in Cincinnati. But, here in Oakland, he needs to just be slightly more than a reliable game manager, with that running game the raiders have. He's more than capable of doing it. Only question is, how accurate will his deep throws down field be?

Outright Win:  Raiders 
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-4.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

The Steelers were hell-bent on running the ball a lot against a good Jaguars pass defense last week. This week they will be airing it out a lot against the weak Cardinals secondary. No way the Cardinals can keep up with the Steelers, even though the Steelers defense is not so hot.

Outright Win:  Steelers 
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3.5)


St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Sam Bradford might sit this one out. That's the good news for the Cowboys. The bad news is that they are 12.5 points favorites in this game. Not a good sign for Romo, who has a penchant for shrinking at the big stage. But against that depleted Rams secondary, assuming Jason Garett learnt his lesson from last week's NE game and puts the ball in Romo's hands to throw, Romo should get this done.

Outright Win: Cowboys 
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-12.5)


 Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-14)

Another front runner in the "Suck for Luck" campaign goes on the road against a Saints team that just got humiliated by Tampa Bay. The Saints will want to prove that they are better than that and also will have the emotional drive to get this one for their coach, who has a torn MCL. Not that the Saints need it against the Painter led Colts.

Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Saints (-14)


Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)

The Ravens are looking dangerous. Not only are they dominant on defense. They are looking really good on offense too. I have no idea why the line hear is not higher in favor of the Ravens. The Jaguars have an above average pass defense, but they will have no answer to Ray Rice and the Ravens run game.

Outright Win: Ravens  
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-7.5)


Upset Special of the Week

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

Its Tebow time! Call me crazy, but there is something about this kid when he plays in a game situation. As underwhelming he (and his mechanics) might seem in practice, he really has the "it" factor to will his team to play hard. And they are going against the Dolphins who are the top dogs for the "Suck for Luck" campaign. Hello Matt Moore! I really like the Broncos to score an uplifting win here.

Outright Win: Broncos 
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+1.5)

Homer Pick of the Week


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9)

The Packers had a rather quiet win against the Rams. People might think their defense is back to 2010 form after giving up just three points in the last six quarters. But it should be noted that four of those quarters was against a Rams team. Also, they did give up a lot of yards to the Rams. We may not know a whole lot about the defense until after the bye as the Vikings are going with their rookie QB, Ponder. While another rookie (Cam Newton) torched the Packer defense earlier in the year, I don't see Dom Capers letting it happen twice in six games.

The Packers O line may have a stiff test against Jared Allen and the other D linemen of the Vikings. Especially if Marshall Newhouse is starting. The Packers will most probably rest all their banged up players, if not anything, to make sure they go somewhat healthy into the bye week. So I do not expect, Zombo, Clifton etc to play this weekend. The rest of the offense is firing in all cylinders. Nitpicking though, I can say that the two main concerns on offense, other than the O line are the running game and the drops by Packer receivers.

Outright Win: Packers 
v/s the Spread: Packers (-9)

 
My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-9) over VIKINGS
Ravens (-7.5) over JAGUARS
Steelers (-3.5) over CARDINALS
Broncos (+1.5) over DOLPHINS
RAIDERS (-4.5) over Chiefs

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-4 
v/s the Spread Record: 5-6-2

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 62-28 
v/s the Spread Record: 47-35-5

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 17-12-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 10/19/2011

NFL 2011: Week 5 Picks

With a quarter of the 2011 NFL season done, we have a clearer picture of who are the contenders and pretenders this year. Still, we might need a couple more weeks to get a better read. Some things that I would like to keep an eye on: Are the Titans for real with Matt Hasselbeck under Center? Will the Eagles and the Cowboys recover from their botched starts? Are the fast starts by the 49ers, Bills and Lions sustainable? Can the Packers and the Patriots continue dominating opponents with this weird combination of an explosive offense and a porous defense? (Both these teams are on pace to shatter the NFL record for most yards allowed by a team in a year). Will the NFC West have a above 0.500 division winner this year? Are the Jets and Steelers just going to fade away or will they make a late push to contend?

With a decent week of picking games against the spread last week, I'm going to try keep that going here:


Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

People who tune into this game: Snoozer Alert! Just because the Colts played the Steelers and the Bucs tough in two National TV games, does not warrant all the Curtis Painter pandering. The Chiefs have definitely shown some spirit to play hard the last couple weeks. It might end up being a closely fought game. But it WILL be a snoozer.

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (+2.5)


Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Every week I watch Kevin Kolb play, I get more convinced that the Cardinals got the raw end of that trade giving up so much for an average QB. Lucky for him, he has Larry Fitzgerald, who catches anything thrown within his vicinity. While the Cardinals running game does not look so good on the surface, the numbers indicate that it is pretty effective. The Vikings need more out of their QB to keep their running game effective. Adrian Peterson is great. But there is only so much he can do against 8 men in the box. Maybe this is the week McNaab gets things moving a bit, against the weak Cardinals secondary.

Outright Win: Vikings 
v/s the Spread: Vikings (-3)


Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (+3)

The "Dream Team" just had a gut check. They are 1-3 and only about 14% of teams that have started 1-3 in the NFL have gone on to make the playoffs. That makes this pretty much a must-win game for the Eagles. Too bad they are going against the Bills, who just fell victim to a typical trap game. They will be able to score a bunch and keep up with the offensive pace of Mike Vick and the Eagles. What worries me about the Bills is their lack of pass rush. But that might also be a good thing for the Bills, because it makes Vick a typical pocket passer and will take out all those electrifying plays out of the game. I also like the matchup of the Bills running game against the weak Eagles run defense.

Outright Win: Bills 
v/s the Spread: Bills (+3)


Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)

The Texans showed they are for real against the Steelers. But they are yet to prove if they can be consistently that good. They face a stiff test against the Raiders, who just might be for real. The absence of Andre Johnson will hurt them in the passing game. Arian Foster was his 2010 self last week. But it might be a little harder to run amok against that Raiders defensive front. The best chance for the Raiders is if they can keep the ball in the hands of McFadden and out of the hands of Jason Campbell.

Outright Win: Texans 
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+6)


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)

Cam Newton's middle name should be "Backdoor". He seems to find a way to do just enough to cover the spread. This week, people should like his chances of doing just that at home. But I am confident that Brees led Saints will find a way to win this on the road.


Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Panthers (+6.5)


Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

The Bengals, as I expected, are a tough out. Andy Dalton just does enough to not lose the game for them, while their defense keeps them in every game. The Jaguars are tough to figure out. They have been in games the last two weeks, but no one seemed to take note of that.

Outright Win: Bengals 
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+2.5)


Seattle Sehawks at New York Giants (-9.5)

You might say the Giants pile up wins by being lucky. I say better be lucky than good.Talk about being lucky, they have the Seahawks coming in to play them this week.Yes, the Seahawks are on the road again. Which means, they are going to suck again.

Outright Win: Giants 
v/s the Spread: Giants (-9.5)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The 49ers are 3-1 and have a 2 game lead in their division through 4 games? Who would have thought? They now face, a Tampa Bay team, that many people think under achieved against the Colts on Monday Night. Adding to the equation that the 49ers are stout against the run and the Bucs have a short week flying across the coast.

Outright Win: 49ers 
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-3)

 
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)

The Jets are just not so good. Normally, I would not hesitate to pick against them this week. But, Rex Ryan always conjures up his best schemes against Tom Brady. So that just made me pause for a few seconds before I pick .....

Outright Win: Patriots 
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-9)


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+4)

The Chargers are slowly getting better. But they have been having problems of late with their AFC West opponents. Especially on the road. I don't expect Denver to give them much resistance though. As the public clamor for Tebow increases, the pressure on Orton also increases. Which is not good for the Broncos.

Outright Win: Chargers 
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-4)


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

The Lions made an improbable comeback to beat the Cowboys. And now, are favored by 5.5 points against the Bears? This has trap game written all over it. I still expect Megatron to pull down a TD or two to get the win, but the Bears should cover.

Outright Win: Lions 
v/s the Spread: Bears (+5.5)


Upset Special of the Week

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

The Steelers say Big Ben will play this week. But Mendenhall is pretty much out. Their defense, uncharacteristically, seems to be not so strong against the run. Could this be the day Chris Johnson breaks out? Talking about the Titans, if Hasselbeck is not the revelation of the year so far (Sorry, Cam), not sure who is.

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (+3)


Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+6)

This is a monster game for especially for fans of  both the Packers and the Falcons. There is some kind of a rivalry brewing here. The Packers lost in over time to the Falcons last year during the regular season. But then, got their revenge in the divisional round of the playoffs, whipping the Falcons in their house, 48-21; and the game was not even as close as that lop sided score indicates. To add to the rivalry, Roddy White mouthed off during the off season about how the Falcons were the better team in spite of that loss. This has got to motivate the Packers to do them one more time; again, in their own house. No wonder NBC decided to feature this as their Sunday Night game of the week.

Leaving all the story lines aside, the Packers will have to work hard in holding back the Falcons pass rush. If they can manage to do that, Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against the Falcons secondary. And yeah, Rodgers loves playing in domes. Mike Turner may not be a big factor with the Packer's strong run defense. The problem for the Packers, as has been every week thus far, will be on pass defense. The Falcons might be able to hang in the game making this a shoot out. Although a shootout probably favors a pass-happy Packer team, letting teams hanging around in the game will someday come back to bite you. Ask the Patriots (vs the Bills in Week 3).

Outright Win: Packers 
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6) over FALCONS
BILLS (+3) over Eagles
PATRIOTS (-9) over Jets
Chargers (-4) over BRONCOS
Titans (+3) over STEELERS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 11-5

v/s the Spread Record: 10-5

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 43-21 

v/s the Spread Record: 33-26-2 

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 11-9

* Odds as per "Sportsbook.com" on 10/05/2011

NFL 2011: Week 4 Picks

What an exciting Week 3 of NFL we just had? At one point, all eight early games were one score games in the 4th quarter. Thanks to DIERCTV Game Mix, I had a very exciting morning of football on Sunday, although overwhelming at times. Later in the afternoon, the Packers' trouncing of the Bears made my day. YOTTO ("Year of the Take Over") indeed!

Wish I had done a little better on my picks against the spread, but hey, you can't have it all. I am going to try do a better job this week:


New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)

Drew Brees carried the Saints on his back to make an improbable comeback against Houston last week. As predicted by many, including yours truly, this game was a shootout. And that always favors the Saints at home, especially when they are going against a Wade Phillips coached defense.

The Jaguars managed to keep the game against the Panthers close in the monsoon game last week. Blaine Gabbert looked raw. But can you blame him after being forced into the starting QB role in Jacksonville? Even though the Jaguars are given 7 points at home, it's hard to pick them against the Saints.

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7)


Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (PK)

The Redskins defense is deceivingly good. Except for the fact that they keep getting burnt when they go on all out blitzes time after time, especially on 3rd and long situations. A little conservative approach might go a long way in making the defense more effective. Bad Rex Grossman showed up last week when he faced pressure from the Dallas D line. The pressure up front won't be as good this week.

The Rams are in a 0-3 hole now. Still, not to anyone's surprise, they are still more than alive in the NFC West. But a loss here might get them closer to the edge of the cliff. They will have to play a disciplined game and learn not to shoot themselves in the foot. A lot will also depend on how much load Stephen Jackson can carry. I'm not going against a team that has its back to the wall.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (0)


Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Kenny Britt's injury is a huge loss for the Titans. Especially with Chris Johnson not taking off; at least not yet. Matt Hasselbeck should now find a new favorite target to keep the Titans offense going. The Browns offense seem to be better than their stats indicate. Their defense is also pretty solid. This will be a close game.

Outright Win: Browns
v/s the Spread: Browns (-1)


Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)

Are the Bills are for real? A come from behind win after being down 21 points against the Patriots does make a strong case. But the caveat here is that it was against the Patriots defense. Playing the Bengals on the road should be walk in the park for a 3-0 Bills team, you would think. But this has all the makings of a trap game, with the Bills still basking in the limelight after beating the Patriots. A let down is likely.

Then again, they are going against Andy Dalton and the Bengals, who might not even have Cedric Benson to pound the rock. So I think the Bills will survive this one.

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-3.5)


Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)

The Vikings seem to have a split personality. The "first half" Vikings seem to be able to score some points and also keep opponents from scoring a whole lot. The "second half" Vikings find a way to give up the lead built up over the first half and some more. Why they don't let Adrian Peterson carry the team on his back in the second half of every game, I will never understand.

The Chiefs played the Chargers hard, almost pulling off an upset there. But I wouldn't read too much into it. The Chargers under Norv Turner, as usual, get creative in making things harder for themselves every September.

Outright Win: Vikings
v/s the Spread: Vikings (-1.5)


Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6)