Thursday, October 20, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 7 Picks

Not so hot Week 6 picks against the spread. Hoping to do better here:

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) [* in London]

Too bad for the Bucs losing a home game to London. But they are coming of a nice road win against the Saints. Can they keep it up against the Bears? The Bears did their part in demolishing the Vikings. Finally, Mike Martz seems to have found out how to get most off that Chicago offensive arsenal he has. By "offensive arsenal", I mean Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.

Outright Win:  Bears 
v/s the Spread: Bears (-1) 

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

The Redskins finally got to see bad Rex and now John Beck will take over reigns in Washington. Mike Shanahan might just end up shuffling his QBs like he shuffles his RBs; just have that feeling. The Panthers finally get an uninspired game by Cam. Are defenses on him? Or was it just an off night? He is the only reason they have a chance of winning a few games this year. Their run game is nothing to boast of and their defense is just plain awful. I'd still take him and the Panthers this game over John Beck's Redskins.

Outright Win: Panthers  
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-2.5)

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (+2)

Rex Ryan and Norv Turner are already exchanging verbal barbs. Borrrring! Lets just get this game going. The over achieving Jets against the under achieving Chargers. The Chargers D might not be as dominant as in years past, but they are going against Sanchez and that anemic Jets offense. Something's gotta give here. My bet is on the Chargers D keeping the Jets offense in "struggle" mode. But this game will be closer than people think because the Jets D is for real.

Outright Win: Chargers 
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-2)

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3)

The Seahawks are on the road again. I am going on a limb here and saying their win against the flaky Giants on the road couple weeks ago was just an aberration. The Browns are better than people think they are. And the more time Colt McCoy plays under this west coast offense, the Browns are going to get better.

Outright Win:  Browns 
 v/s the Spread: Browns (-3)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

No Andre Johnson? I don't expect too much out of these Texans. Their defense already has taken a few steps back with the injury to Mario Williams. The Titans, coming off that bye, could take the inside track to this division with a win here. Matt Hasselbeck will get his team to play hard after that beating they took against the Steelers couple weeks ago.

Outright Win:  Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-3)

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The Falcons have finally figured that they have to win games the way they did last year. Run the ball and use Matt Ryan's arm just to move the chains. Can they stick to that plan, is the question. The Lions will be pissed after last weeks loss to the 49ers. They will come guns blazing at home this week. And their stadium will be LOUD. More penalties for the Falcons!

Outright Win:  Lions 
v/s the Spread: Lions (-3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4.5)

I really like the Carson Palmer trade for the Raiders. Yeah, steep prize to pay, but I think Palmer makes them an immediate contender this season. I am aware about the last couple years of futile performances of Palmer in Cincinnati. But, here in Oakland, he needs to just be slightly more than a reliable game manager, with that running game the raiders have. He's more than capable of doing it. Only question is, how accurate will his deep throws down field be?

Outright Win:  Raiders 
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-4.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

The Steelers were hell-bent on running the ball a lot against a good Jaguars pass defense last week. This week they will be airing it out a lot against the weak Cardinals secondary. No way the Cardinals can keep up with the Steelers, even though the Steelers defense is not so hot.

Outright Win:  Steelers 
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3.5)

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Sam Bradford might sit this one out. That's the good news for the Cowboys. The bad news is that they are 12.5 points favorites in this game. Not a good sign for Romo, who has a penchant for shrinking at the big stage. But against that depleted Rams secondary, assuming Jason Garett learnt his lesson from last week's NE game and puts the ball in Romo's hands to throw, Romo should get this done.

Outright Win: Cowboys 
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-12.5)

 Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-14)

Another front runner in the "Suck for Luck" campaign goes on the road against a Saints team that just got humiliated by Tampa Bay. The Saints will want to prove that they are better than that and also will have the emotional drive to get this one for their coach, who has a torn MCL. Not that the Saints need it against the Painter led Colts.

Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Saints (-14)

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)

The Ravens are looking dangerous. Not only are they dominant on defense. They are looking really good on offense too. I have no idea why the line hear is not higher in favor of the Ravens. The Jaguars have an above average pass defense, but they will have no answer to Ray Rice and the Ravens run game.

Outright Win: Ravens  
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-7.5)

Upset Special of the Week

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

Its Tebow time! Call me crazy, but there is something about this kid when he plays in a game situation. As underwhelming he (and his mechanics) might seem in practice, he really has the "it" factor to will his team to play hard. And they are going against the Dolphins who are the top dogs for the "Suck for Luck" campaign. Hello Matt Moore! I really like the Broncos to score an uplifting win here.

Outright Win: Broncos 
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+1.5)

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9)

The Packers had a rather quiet win against the Rams. People might think their defense is back to 2010 form after giving up just three points in the last six quarters. But it should be noted that four of those quarters was against a Rams team. Also, they did give up a lot of yards to the Rams. We may not know a whole lot about the defense until after the bye as the Vikings are going with their rookie QB, Ponder. While another rookie (Cam Newton) torched the Packer defense earlier in the year, I don't see Dom Capers letting it happen twice in six games.

The Packers O line may have a stiff test against Jared Allen and the other D linemen of the Vikings. Especially if Marshall Newhouse is starting. The Packers will most probably rest all their banged up players, if not anything, to make sure they go somewhat healthy into the bye week. So I do not expect, Zombo, Clifton etc to play this weekend. The rest of the offense is firing in all cylinders. Nitpicking though, I can say that the two main concerns on offense, other than the O line are the running game and the drops by Packer receivers.

Outright Win: Packers 
v/s the Spread: Packers (-9)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-9) over VIKINGS
Ravens (-7.5) over JAGUARS
Steelers (-3.5) over CARDINALS
Broncos (+1.5) over DOLPHINS
RAIDERS (-4.5) over Chiefs

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 9-4 
v/s the Spread Record: 5-6-2

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 62-28 
v/s the Spread Record: 47-35-5

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 17-12-1

* Odds as per "" on 10/19/2011

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