Thursday, September 5, 2013

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 1

I'm back! After a long (really really long) hiatus, I'm back!

Thinking of easing myself into writing here again; and not throw myself back to the wolves right away. Let's see how it goes.

Instead of doing the weekly game-by-game picks this season (which almost everyone with access to a computer and the internet does these days), I'm going to try simulate making my Vegas Hilton SuperContest picks here. It is my experiment to see how I'd fare in the real contest and maybe enter it someday (soon... next year.. maybe!).

Also going to drop a few lines with the picks, trying to explain the reasoning behind my picks.

I will be using the odds given by LVH (released every Wednesday around 5PM). You can find them here.

Here are my Week 1 Picks (Home team in CAPS):

Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

Season opener at home for the Saints; they usually win those in the Superdome. Add to it that it's going to double up as a Sean Payton's welcome back party. Pretty strong feeling the Saints got this. The clincher for me is that, the probable regression to the mean for the Falcons (from last year's improbable good luck) is going to catch up to them.

Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are going to be bad. And that could easily be an understatement. The Buccaneers are expected to have an elite defense (especially their secondary) this year. Only if Josh Freeman from the first half of last season shows up, I'm sure I got this too. The under on this game will be a good bet too.

Pick 3: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It's week 1. I'm going to try feast on some tentative lines on games involving certain teams the wise guys (I think) do not seem to have a feel about yet. The Chiefs are one of them. I expect them to be good this year with new head coach Andy Reid and new QB Alex Smith. Weapons like a healthy Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe don't hurt. And did I mention they play the Jaguars this week?

Pick 4: NY Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Giants, of late, have had the Cowboys' number at Jerry World. I'm thinking that trend continues. The Cowboys have a talented roster. No question. But how much confidence can a Bill Callahan co-ordinated offense and a Monte Kiffin co-ordinated defense instill in you?    

Pick 5: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) over Miami Dolphins

The Browns are one of those teams that's expected to be taking a big step forward this year. Weeden has been good this pre-season (for whatever that's worth). Solid Defense coupled with Norv "the offensive co-ordinator" Turner's offense is gonna keep them in most games they play. The Dolphins are another team that's supposedly on an uptick; but I ain't buying that.

On the bubble:

* Was hard for me to leave out my homer pick, the Packers (+4.5) over the Niners. I just can't pick them Packers until I see their defense show some signs of containing the Niners with my own eyes, let alone stop them.

* The Seahawks (-3.5) over the Panthers seems like an easy pick on the surface. But I'm nervous to pick the Seahawks on the road. Maybe a few wins under their belt on the road early this season, and I might start riding them in this contest. Already plan on riding them at home a lot.

* Vikings (+5.5) over the Lions. Thinking.... Adrian Peterson on turf vs that Lions run D? .... Maybe I should have put this as one of my 5 supercontest picks!

* Patriots (-9.5) over the Bills. I need to see how explosive the Patriots offense will be this year with their new WRs and without their alleged felon TE.

* I also overcame the temptation to pick against the Raiders, even though they are given 9.5 points here. The Colts are another team that's expected to regress to the mean (along with the Falcons). I want to wait a week or two before involving these two teams in my final picks.

Contest Record last week: 0-0
Contest Record Year-to-date: 0-0

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