LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 16

Week 16 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: CINCINNATI BENGALS  (-7) over Minnesota Vikings

Pick 2: DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) over Houston Texans

Pick 3:  SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Arizona Cardinals

Pick 4: New Orleans Saints (+3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Pick 5: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-12.5) over Atlanta Falcons


ON THE BUBBLE:

* Dolphins (-2.5) over BILLS

* Cowboys (-3) over REDSKINS

* Buccaneers (+5) over RAMS

* JETS (-2.5) over Browns

* Colts (+7) over CHIEFS

Contest Record last week: 4-1
Contest Record Year-to-date: 42-31-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 39-35-1

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 15

Week 15 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) over St. Louis Rams

Pick 2: Seattle Seahawks (-7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Pick 3:  INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5.5) over Houston Texans

Pick 4: Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Pick 5: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* 49ers (-5.5) over BUCCANEERS

* Packers (+7.5) over COWBOYS

* Jets (+11) over PANTHERS

* Bears (+1) over BROWNS

* Eagles (+5) over VIKINGS

Contest Record last week: 4-1
Contest Record Year-to-date: 38-30-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 35-34-1

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 14

Skipped posting Week 13 picks. I went 4-1 last week (1-4 in "On the Bubble" picks)

Week 14 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Miami Dolphins

Pick 2: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over New York Giants

Pick 3: ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams

Pick 4: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills

Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS



ON THE BUBBLE:

* BENGALS (-6) over Colts

* FALCONS (+3.5) over Packers

* Cowboys (+1) over BEARS

* SAINTS (-3.5) over Panthers

* Chiefs (-3.5) over REDSKINS

Contest Record last week: 4-1
Contest Record Year-to-date: 34-29-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 31-33-1

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 12

Skipped posting another week of picks. I went 3-2 last week (1-4 in "On the Bubble" picks)

Week 12 Super Contest odds.

Week 12 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+9) over Detroit Lions

Pick 2: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+10) over Houston Texans

Pick 3: ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Pick 4: NY GIANTS (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Pick 5: OAKLAND RAIDERS (+1) over Tennessee Titans





ON THE BUBBLE:

* Chargers (+4.5) over CHIEFS

* Panthers (-4) over DOLPHINS

* PACKERS (-5) over Vikings

* Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS

* RAMS (-1) over Bears

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 27-26-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 28-27

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 10

I took a bye last week from picks to recover from all the beating I'm taking here. Kidding. I just forgot to post my picks. Went 3-2 in my picks, 2-3 in "On the Bubble" picks.

Week 10 Super Contest odds.

Week 10 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: TENNESSEE TITANS (-11.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick 2: Seattle Seahawks (-6) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Pick 3: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Pick 4: Denver Broncos (-7) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Pick 5: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* Panthers (+6) over 49ERS

* CARDINALS (-2.5) over Texans

* PACKERS (-1.5) over Eagles

* Redskins (-2.5) over Vikings

* Lions (-2.5) over Bears

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 21-22-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 25-20

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 8

I'm not even gonna try give an excuse... maybe I'm just not cut out for this.... arghhhhh!

Week 8 Super Contest odds.

And just my picks today with no explanation: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins

Pick 2: CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over NY Jets

Pick 3: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Pick 4: Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* 49ers (-16.5) over Jaguars (played in London)

* EAGLES (-5.5) over NY Giants

* PACKERS (-9.5) over Vikings

* BROWNS (+7.5) over Chiefs

* Cowboys (+3.5) over Lions

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 16-18-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 19-16

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 7

Time to pick up my slack... gonna dig in real deep here....

Week 7 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: Denver Broncos (-6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I'm riding this Broncos offense to cover "less than a TD" spreads as long as .... well... it gets cold out there!

Pick 2: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2) over Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are just not so good. Especially on the road. The Steelers might get on a roll here to be a player in the AFC North. Watch out!

Pick 3: Chicago Bears (+1) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
High scoring game here. The Redskins will keep this close. The Bears have a deceivingly bad secondary that depends far too much on turnovers. Will be a fun game!

Pick 4: San Francisco 49ers (-4) over TENNESSEE TITANS
The 49ers against Ryan Fitzpatrick? And Chris Johnson is going against that run D? I really like the 49ers here... even on the road

Pick 5: San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This spread is so attractive to pass up on. The Chargers are entering that sneaky good team zone. And the Jaguars .... meh!

ON THE BUBBLE:

* CHIEFS (-6.5) over Texans: Chiefs D vs those Texans D! Over/under on number of pick-6s this game?

* EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys: Going to be another high scoring game here. Wow these NFC East teams just hat to play D, uh?

* Patriots (-4) over JETS: Gronk or no Gronk, The Pats own the Jets. Plucky Jets might score a bit against this decimated Pats D, but Brady is not going to lose to the Jets.

* Bengals (+2.5) over LIONS: The Bengals D had a bad game against the Bills. Guess, they were just not prepared to defend the read option. Not much read option this week with the Lions. Riding the Bengals D here.

* Seahawks (-6.5) over CARDINALS: The Seahawks should win this low scoring game. Still think they win by more than a touchdown with the help of a defensive score. Hello Carson Palmer!

Contest Record last week: 1-4 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 13-16-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 16-14

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 6

Yikes!! A weekend of picks to forget.... lotta catching up to do.....

Here are the Week 5 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: CHICAGO BEARS (-7.5) over NY Giants
The Bears seem to be motivated to get back on track after last week's loss to the Saints. Could there be a better opponent to get back on track than the Giants this year. Even if it's on a Thursday night.

Pick 2: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Homer pick here. But I think the Packers should beat a slightly above average Ravens team. The Packers D are very under rated at this point. Might end up being a fairly low scoring game here.

Pick 3: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) over Detroit Lions
Yeah yeah...i know.. Brandon Weeden is starting for the Browns. But I am also betting that Detroit is not going to have Calvin Johnson this game. The Browns D might shutdown a Calvin-less Lions offense. Possibly a shut out!

Pick 4: Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Bengals D should be able to torment Thad Lewis. Yep, I said Thad Lewis!

Pick 5: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Taking the Chargers at home vs a mid-west team travelling out west for a night game, with a let-down game possibility added to the equation

ON THE BUBBLE:

* JETS (-2) over Steelers: This is more of a pick against the Steelers than me liking the Jets

* Eagles (-1.5) over Bucs: Mike Glennon anybody?

* Saints (+2.5) over Patriots: The Saints are IMO the best team in the league. Give them the edge over the Broncos just because they play D.

* COWBOYS (-5.5) over Redskins: The Redskins suck!

* 49ERS (-11) over Cardinals: The Cardinals D is really good. But Carson Palmer might give the niners a few short fields to work with.

Contest Record last week: 1-4 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 12-12-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 13-12

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 5

Hanging by a thread here... at least I'm not regressing... allegedly like the Colts were supposed to.

Here are the Week 5 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) over Buffalo Bills
The Browns are on fire. Well.... relative to way they were (0-2) and considering their spark plugs have been Brian Hoyer and Josh Gordon; yep, they are on fire. The Bills on the road? No thank you!

Pick 2: New England Patriots (+2) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Tom Brady vs Andy Dalton! Yeah... i know my sorry ass packers (at least for that week) lost to this Bengals group on the road. Not happening against Brady and his unheralded group of plucky unrestricted free agents.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I'm going to ride these Seahawks on the road 'less than a FG' lines. Let down game for the Colts comes a week later than everyone expected.

Pick 4: Denver Broncos (-7.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Broncos offense can't be run any more efficiently than how Peyton Manning is doing it at the moment. Easy cover freight train!

Pick 5: San Diego Chargers (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Can't believe this line is so low. Tyrell Pryor might start. But he's just a glorified fantasy star. Not someone that can beat even an average NFL team. Plus, these Chargers might be more than half decent. Well, at least on offense they are.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* FALCONS (-9.5) over Jets: Must win game for the Falcons at home against a rookie QB.

* PACKERS (-7) over Lions: Same logic as for the Falcons. And oh yeah, the Lions haven't won at Lambeau since 1991.

* Saints (PK) over BEARS: The Saints might in fact be the best team in teh NFC (sorry Seattle). We'll know in a few weeks.

* RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars: I have to pick against the Jaguars. Even if it means I'm betting on Sam Bradford! Yikes!!!!

* Panthers (-2) over CARDINALS: Sneaky good Panthers. Watch out for them along with the Titans (when Locker is back) to be the sneaky good surprises this year.

Contest Record last week: 3-1-1 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 11-8-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 10-10

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 4

Another mediocre 3-2 week for me. Hey, at least it's not getting worse... not yet anyways!

Here are the Week 4 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns did the opposite of what I thought they would do. They rallied together for a statement win. The statement being: "Management might want us to tank. But we are going to fight!". Well... that rally has run it's course. They usually don't last that long. Especially if you face a solid solid team like the Bengals.

Pick 2: Baltimore Ravens (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Ravens offense is going to have that high scoring aberration game against that sorry Bills defense.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
I know the Seahawks are on the road. And the Texans are not an easy out. But the Seahwaks defense should keep this game close. And there are very few QBs in this league that I trust more in close games than Russel Wilson.

Pick 4: DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles
Peyton Manning is going to carve up that Eagles D..... yep... the Eagles have a D... i know it is hard to notice... unless of course they play Alex Smith. Even he was able to find Donnie Avery for large chunks of yards. Good Lord! Pay your mortgage, folks!

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over New York Jets
Yes. I'm still on the Titans' D train. They are going to feast on the rookie QB, who just played one of the worst defenses in the league (Bills). Welcome to the NFL moment for the rook!

ON THE BUBBLE:

* RAMS (+3) over 49ers: I expect this division game to be close and decided by a FG or less. Taking the home team that is given 3 points. duh! Plus, this is the Thursday Night game. Pay your mortgage with the under!

* Colts (-7.5) over  JAGUARS: The Colts will have to play really really bad to blow this one. This Jaguars team might get some garbage points to keep this close. But I expect a double digits Colts win.

* CHIEFS (-4) over Giants: Yep, I'm thinking the Giants are going to start 0-4. I know that old narrative of these cornered Giants. But I don't see anything in this team that suggests they have any semblance of fight left.

* Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCS: The Bucs are benching Josh Freeman. This is probably going to help them couple weeks down the line. But throwing that Glennon kid to the wolves not going to be pretty this week. The Cardinals have their own woes, but they should be alright this week.

* Dolphins (+6.5) over SAINTS: The Dolphins are for real? Let's see them prove it in prime time on MNF!

Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 8-7

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 7-8

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 3

Making some progress here. I'm probably going to be out of contention if I don't get a few 5-0 weeks now.

Here are the Week 3 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns
The Browns just traded away their best player on offense. Benched their QB for Bryan Hoyer (And yeah, sugar coat it all you want, but he was benched!). The players are either going to pull together and play hard or, do just the opposite - crumble from the feeling that the management brass has given up on the year. I'm betting the later. The Vikings have their own QB controversy brewing, but may take a couple weeks before that's going to pop it's ugly head.

Pick 2: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS 
Yep. My homer pick. I think the Packers will win this game on the road. They are too good a team to start 1-2. Bengals are going to be a tough out though. Hoping the Packers O line can hold it's own against that dreaded Bengal's D-Line. Fingers crossed!

Pick 3: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots are giving only 7 points at home against teh 0-2 Bucs? Only 7 freaking points?!?! As Jason Whitlock would say ..... "Y'all ready to pay your mortgages?". And oh, the Gronk might be back too.

Pick 4: Indianapolis Colts (+10) over the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Nope. This ain't a hater pick. I just think with Trent Richardson now carrying the rock for the Colts, they should be able to cover this easy. Still expect the 49ers to win though.

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) over San Diego Chargers
I'm riding the Titans' D-Train. They seem to be legit. Like them a lot this game, especially at home.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Lions (+2) over REDSKINS: Not sure the Redskins can beat anyone with that Defense.

* Jaguars (+19) over SEAHAWKS: I know! I'm probably the only one that's picking the Jags to cover. I just think 19 points are too much to leave on the table.

* SAINTS (-7) over Cardinals: The Saints D seems under rated. They might be sneaky good. Like the year they won the Super Bowl. Well... good enough to beat Carson Palmer and his hobbled offense anyway.

* COWBOYS (-4) over Rams: Expect this to be a shoot out. Cowboys gonna get this at home.

* Bears (-2.5) over STEELERS: Just picking against the Steelers here. Can't see them beating an average team, let alone a good Bears team.

And yeah... it feels like a " lotta favorites cover" kinda week!


Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 5-5

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 3-7

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 2

Ok, so that was not a hot start for me. Not by a long shot. Went just 2-3 last week. The silver lining is that two of the lines I didn't cover were because of: (1) a dumb late hit penalty by Tampa Bay and (2) a dumb pick 6 by Eli.

So, I'm going to delude myself to thinking I'm onto something here. Here are the Week 2 SuperContest picks.

On to my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: New York Jets (+11.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are a little beat up at WR and RB (Amendola and Vereen are mostly out). Rookie WRs are going to have growing pains. Divisional games are bound to be close more often than not. The Jets D might be legit too. I don't believe the Jets will win this game, but 11.5 is too many points to leave on the table.

Pick 2: CHICAGO BEARS (-6) over Minnesota Vikings
Coach Trestman has this offense humming. The O line looked surprisingly good. Cutler was sharp (except for one throw). Peanut Tillman in the secondary is still that good ol' ball hawk we know him to be. The Vikings looked awful against the Lions. With the Lions loading up defenders in the box, Ponder still couldn't throw much. Recipe for disaster if he can't even throw enough to keep defenses honest and give Adrian Peterson a chance to do his thing.

Pick 3: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) over San Francisco 49ers 
The Seahawks at home. Enough said!
........... And one more thing......... Clearly the Game of the Week! Can't wait!

Pick 4: Carolina Panthers (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Panthers held their own on D against the Seahawks. EJ manual is not going to be any better than Russell Wilson. And the Bills Defense is not as scary as the Seahawks Defense.

Pick 5: Tennessee Titans (+9) over HOUSTON TEXANS
The Titans Defense looked stout. This game will tell me if that was more the ineptitude of the Steelers' offense, or if the Titans indeed are that good. I'm betting on the later.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Once again leaving out my homer pick: PACKERS (-7.5) over Redskins. Just about 4.5 points more than what I'm comfortable with, given the Redskins could pile up garbage points.

* Jaguars (+5.5) over RAIDERS: I'm taking the points in this bottom feeder match up. Pretty confident neither of these two can win a game by over 5 points. Against anybody!

* Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS: The Bucs had a stinker last week. Not putting this in my top 5, because I want to see if the Bucs have a strong rebound. Or they might just be THAT bad!?!

* Lions (-1.5) over CARDINALS: The Lions just might be good. Definitely better than the Cardinals on paper. But can they avoid those dumb plays and put it together?

* Broncos (-4.5) over NY GIANTS: I'm taking Peyton Manning in this match up. But this also has some Giants' "rebound from a stinker" potential.


Contest Record last week: 2-3 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 2-3

"ON THE BUBBE" Record Year-to-date: 1-4

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 1

I'm back! After a long (really really long) hiatus, I'm back!

Thinking of easing myself into writing here again; and not throw myself back to the wolves right away. Let's see how it goes.

Instead of doing the weekly game-by-game picks this season (which almost everyone with access to a computer and the internet does these days), I'm going to try simulate making my Vegas Hilton SuperContest picks here. It is my experiment to see how I'd fare in the real contest and maybe enter it someday (soon... next year.. maybe!).

Also going to drop a few lines with the picks, trying to explain the reasoning behind my picks.

I will be using the odds given by LVH (released every Wednesday around 5PM). You can find them here.

Here are my Week 1 Picks (Home team in CAPS):

Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

Season opener at home for the Saints; they usually win those in the Superdome. Add to it that it's going to double up as a Sean Payton's welcome back party. Pretty strong feeling the Saints got this. The clincher for me is that, the probable regression to the mean for the Falcons (from last year's improbable good luck) is going to catch up to them.

Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are going to be bad. And that could easily be an understatement. The Buccaneers are expected to have an elite defense (especially their secondary) this year. Only if Josh Freeman from the first half of last season shows up, I'm sure I got this too. The under on this game will be a good bet too.

Pick 3: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It's week 1. I'm going to try feast on some tentative lines on games involving certain teams the wise guys (I think) do not seem to have a feel about yet. The Chiefs are one of them. I expect them to be good this year with new head coach Andy Reid and new QB Alex Smith. Weapons like a healthy Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe don't hurt. And did I mention they play the Jaguars this week?

Pick 4: NY Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Giants, of late, have had the Cowboys' number at Jerry World. I'm thinking that trend continues. The Cowboys have a talented roster. No question. But how much confidence can a Bill Callahan co-ordinated offense and a Monte Kiffin co-ordinated defense instill in you?    

Pick 5: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) over Miami Dolphins

The Browns are one of those teams that's expected to be taking a big step forward this year. Weeden has been good this pre-season (for whatever that's worth). Solid Defense coupled with Norv "the offensive co-ordinator" Turner's offense is gonna keep them in most games they play. The Dolphins are another team that's supposedly on an uptick; but I ain't buying that.


On the bubble:

* Was hard for me to leave out my homer pick, the Packers (+4.5) over the Niners. I just can't pick them Packers until I see their defense show some signs of containing the Niners with my own eyes, let alone stop them.

* The Seahawks (-3.5) over the Panthers seems like an easy pick on the surface. But I'm nervous to pick the Seahawks on the road. Maybe a few wins under their belt on the road early this season, and I might start riding them in this contest. Already plan on riding them at home a lot.

* Vikings (+5.5) over the Lions. Thinking.... Adrian Peterson on turf vs that Lions run D? .... Maybe I should have put this as one of my 5 supercontest picks!

* Patriots (-9.5) over the Bills. I need to see how explosive the Patriots offense will be this year with their new WRs and without their alleged felon TE.

* I also overcame the temptation to pick against the Raiders, even though they are given 9.5 points here. The Colts are another team that's expected to regress to the mean (along with the Falcons). I want to wait a week or two before involving these two teams in my final picks.


Contest Record last week: 0-0
Contest Record Year-to-date: 0-0