Wednesday, November 23, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 12 Picks

Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh!

Go Pack Go!

On to the Picks.....

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The Dolphins have been playing some inspired football the last few weeks. I still do not trust their pass defense so much. But their overall defense has kept them in games, and Matt Moore has capitalized on them. The Cowboys remain this hot and cold team; just as all their counterparts in the NFC East. Which Cowboys team will show up on turkey Day?

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+7)

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

As much as I like the style of the 49ers and the way they will themselves to stay in games against good teams. I don't think they can overcome the combination of a short week and the Ravens that plays up (or down) to their competition.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-3) 

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets(-9)

Two horrid teams fighting each other for a chance to be relevant in the AFC. The Bills have officially lost their mojo. The Jets never really seemed to have it.Too many injuries for the Bills to cover this spread.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-9)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

The Browns have four wins. No, I'm not kidding. FOUR wins. But if you watch them play, you will understand how underwhelming they look on the field. The Bengals, on the other hand, have played toe to toe with the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks. This should be a piece of cake for them.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-7.5) 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

The Texans may not have Matt Schaub. But their running game has been clicking in all cylinders, it should not matter so much. And add the return of Andre Johnson to the mix. If Matt Leinart just doesn't turn the ball over, the Texans might be better than the last few weeks. The Jaguars are who they are. A team with a weak offense and sneaky good defense. But they are not going to sneak up on a division rival.

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-3.5) 

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Panthers finally get a game they can win in spite of that horrible defense. The Colts might get a few yards, but win a game? I just don't see it.

Outright Win: Panthers
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

The Titans have been inconsistent ever since Kenny Britt went down. But with the struggling Bucs in town, they might be able to hang with the Texans for at least one more week. The Bucs also give up a lot of yards on the ground. Hello Chris Johnson!

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (-3) 

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)

No Adrian Peterson. No problem for the Falcons.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-9.5)  

Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (-4) 

Cutler is out for a few weeks. The Bears will definitely miss him. Yes, the Bears anyways ran their offense through Forte the last few weeks. And their defense and special teams played a big part in their success. But with no Cutler, opposing defenses will load up the box to stop Forte and try make Caleb Hannie beat them through the air.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-4)

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The Redskins managed to almost pull off a win against the Cowboys last week. Only reason I think of for the redskins playing them Cowboys tough: divisional opponent. This time on the road at Seattle, its not going to be that easy.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)  

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5)

The Chiefs may start Tyler Palko or Kyle Orton (who they picked up on waivers today). Whoever they start, I like the Steelers to cover the spread here.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-10.5)

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Everybody is down on the Giants this week. Which means the good Giants team will show up. The problem is the Saints are at home and are incredibly tough to beat. Something's gotta give, right?

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Giants (+7) 

Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams (NL)

No line on this game because of the uncertainty on who will start as QB for the Cardinals. Like that matters? Oh no wait, its against the Rams, so it might matter.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: N/A 

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

Uncertainty about the availability of Mike Vick is the reason for no line here. This is an important game for the Eagles, if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their best chance to do it is if they had Mike Vick in to exploit the Patriots defense. Vince Young might be a "winner", but not when its a shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: N/A

Upset Special of the Week

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-6)

I'm a believer. Timmy Tebow will get it done on the road this time. And he has Norv Turner and Phillip Rivers to shoot themselves in their feet at crunch time to assist him. Tebow now also has added motivation given by his own boss, John Elway unintentionally!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+6) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6.5)

I'm loving this. All the pundits are picking the Lions in an upset here. Which is exactly where the Packers want public opinion to be.

At the same time, I'd be lying if I didn't say I am nervous. The Lions are freaking dangerous.

The Lions match up well against the strengths of the Packers: on offense. They can totally hang with the Packers. To help both teams, both defenses are below average and tend to give up a lot of yards. This is where I am hoping for the Packers to make just more enough game changing plays, maybe turnovers, to make the difference. Fingers crossed!

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6.5)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6.5) over LIONS
Panthers (-3) over COLTS
TITANS (-3) over Buccaneers
SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins
Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 11-3
v/s the Spread Record: 6-6-2

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 107-53
v/s the Spread Record: 80-68-8

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 30-23-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/23/2011

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