Wednesday, November 16, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 11 Picks

Nine-and-oh, baby! Yeah!!!!!

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2)

The hot up start Bills have now cooled down. The Dolphins on the other hand have been playing some good football. Their  two game win streak may not be against great teams, but they are good enough to beat mediocre ones; the Bills are one such team at this point.
Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals might have lost to the Steelers last week. But they did show some resolve in coming back from being down 14 points and keeping this close till the end. Unfortunately, the Ravens just lost to the Seahawks and are going to be hungry for another win. I still like the Bengals to keep this close.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+7) 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (0)

This game has snoozer written all over it. Both these teams have decent enough defenses. Good enough to stymie each other's offenses. I think I'm going to toss a coin to decide this. For real. (Heads - Jaguars and Tails - Browns. Tossing ..... Heads it is!)

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (0) 

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Could Carson Palmer really be as good as he seemed last Thursday? Or was it just a mirage? The Vikings were killed at Lambeau, but they are sneaky good especially if Adrian Peterson can get his legs going early in the game. Still, I think the Raiders have enough in them to pull this off on the road.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-1) 

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7) 

The Lions had their worst outing of the season last week at Soldier Field in Chicago. This will be the game that will show us if that was just a blip, or if the Lions are really spiraling  out of contention this season. They should win this game, but by how much is the question. Nothing says they are back on track than a blow out win against the lowly Panthers

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-7) 

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Cowboys are catching the Redskins at the right time. Or maybe this is how the Redskins are going to be rest of the season. They have NO offense. What so ever. A win here will keep Dallas in the NFC East title hunt, right behind the Giants. 

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-8) 

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The Cardinals suddenly find themselves with a two game win streak. Thanks to... wait for it... John Skelton? Ok, now that's not going to last. Not when you have the up start 49ers coming to town. Talking about the niners. They are done with the tough part of their schedule. 5 of their next 6 games are against he NFC West. Phew! The Packers better look out, a small slip up could see the 49ers taking the No.1 seed.

Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+9.5) 

Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams (-1)

Another NFC West match up. The Seahawks beat the Ravens last week. But this one is on the road. And the Rams are seem to be finding their footing. Bradford to Lloyd connection can only get better. In spite of the Seahawks being pretty good against the run, Stephen Jackson is a beast.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (-1) 

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The see saw ride for the Titans continues. Except for maybe the fact that Chris Johnson could be making a mid-season resurgence. The Falcons are not so hot either. Especially after that 4th down debacle in OT against the Saints. Still, they are at home again. I think they win a close one here

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Titans (+6) 

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Chargers are just not good this year. Can we all accept that and stop acting surprised every time they goof up? Exact opposite for the Bears. Can we stop acting surprised when the Bears beat good teams? They are GOOD. Especially at home.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-3.5) 

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)

The Chiefs were not that good to begin with. And now with Tyler Palko playing QB, the question really is how big of a blow out this game is going to be.And oh by the way, the Patriots defense might be making a second half comeback this season. Only this time 2003-04 style (no name defensive players making plays all over the field... hello Julian Edleman!). Watch out folks!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-14.5) 

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5)

Mike Vick most probably won't play this game. The Giants after their loss last week will want to rebound real bad. Vince Young and the porous Eagles run defense will help the giants rack up a win here. But just for high drama's (and high comedy) sake, I would love to see Vince Young carry the Eagles to win here on the road. Will that brew up a QB controversy in Philly?

Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-3.5)

Upset Special of the Week

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+7)

Call me crazy. But I think the Broncos have more than a shot at winning this game. The Jets D is great at defending the pass. I'll give them that. Problem here is Timmy Tebow ain't gonna throw that much. The Jets run defense is nothing to sneeze at, but it's been sub par on the road so far this season. The big match up I'll be looking for here is how the Jets offense can do against the Broncos defense. If Von Miller and gang can torment Sanchez all day, the Broncos have a legit shot at this. Add to it the Jets had like three days to prepare for this game.

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+7) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)

The 9-0 Packers are due a let down game anytime now. Especially this week, coming off what people think was their first "complete" game of the season (offense, defense and special teams). Only problem: Aaron Rodgers remembers the last two times he played the Bucs, he had bad games. And knowing Rodger's penchant for keeping mental notes and getting motivation out of it. He is going to have a big game here.

And yeah, the Bucs kinda suck too.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers
Cowboys (-8) over REDSKINS
PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Chiefs
RAMS (-1) over Seahawks
PACKERS (-14) over Buccaneers

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-7

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 96-50
v/s the Spread Record: 74-62-6

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 28-20-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/16/2011

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