Thursday, November 10, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 10 Picks

Its Week 10. The Packers are 8-0. Life is good.

Now on to the picks:

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The AFC West seems to be a mess at the moment. Three teams are tied at 4-4 and the Broncos are right behind, trailing by just one game. This game is not only important for both teams to get ahead in the standings, but a tie breaker edge will go a long way especially in such a close division.

Outright Win: Chargers

v/s the Spread: Chargers (-7) 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

The Bengals finally get a quality opponent to prove to the rest of the league that they are for real. The Steelers on the other hand, get a chance to keep up with the Ravens in the AFC North. Although same can be said about the Bengals. This game will show us a lot more about the Bengals than the Steelers.

Outright Win:  Steelers

v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3) 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Tim Tebow fever was revived last week after they beat the Raiders in the black hole. But doing the same at Arrow Head will be harder. Still, never say never with Tebow. Especially after the Chiefs struggled last week against the win-less Dolphins. This might be the typical rebound game for the Chiefs after a tough loss.

Outright Win:  Chiefs

v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-3) 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Jaguars had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. That's way too much time for an opponent that seems to be tanking on purpose. Add to the equation that the Jaguars defense is sneaky good; especially their pass defense.

Outright Win:  Jaguars

v/s the Spread: Jaguars (-3) 

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bills had a tough loss against the Jets, who just shut their offense down. Period. The Cowboys might have a better front four than the Jets. But the Dallas secondary is weak. The Bills should score some, and the Cowboys should be able to score against the Bills too. That kid Demarco Murray seems to be for real. I think this will be a close game at the end.

Outright Win: Cowboys

v/s the Spread: Bills (+5.5) 

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

The Texans after a couple of weeks of facing bad teams, face an average to above average teams. Can their offense keep up the good work? The Bcus have their own problems. Josh Freeman seems to have regressed this season. And the Legarette Blount isn't the burner he shows glimpses of being.

Outright Win: Texans

v/s the Spread: Texans (-3) 

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Titans are really missing Kenny Britt to get their offense going. Chris Johnson had a decent game last week. If at all he is going to have a break out game, it would be this week against the Panthers. Cam Newton will have another good game to pad up his candidacy for the rookie of the year. This time, it might come with a Win.

Outright Win: Panthers

v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (-4)

The Redskins are bad. Really bad. They find it so hard to score any points these days. Miami is coming off their first win of the season. You might think that will lead to a let down game this week. But not against this Redskins team. And the Dolphins have a pretty good defense.

Outright Win: Dolphins

v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-4) 

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (PK)

This is a huge game for the NFC South race. The Falcons seem to getting back on track. I will be convinced of that only if they can show up and play this game tight. The Saints seem to struggle on the road this season. The dome in Atlanta will be loud and ready for them.

Outright Win: Falcons

v/s the Spread: Falcons (0) 

St Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Rams have a chance if Stephen Jackson carries this team on his back. They might need a little more from Sam Bradford and the WRs more as a decoy to clear lanes for Jackson. The Rams defense does not face a big challenge when facing the Browns. Still, the Brown might have just enough in them, if they can only keep it close in the first quarter.

Outright Win: Browns

v/s the Spread: Browns (-2.5) 

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

This is going to be a closely fought NFC North game. The Lions beat the Bears at home earlier in the year. This time, the Lions will not have their crowd noise that helped get so many Bears penalties at Soldier Field. Also, it is going to be cold in the mid-west this week. Advantage Bears.

Outright Win: Bears

v/s the Spread: Bears (-3) 

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The Giants managed to pull off another upset of the Patriots, this time at Foxboro. It felt so eerily like that Super Bowl game in 2008 (2007-08 season). Now the Giants are on the road against the up start 49ers. This could be a let down game for the Giants, except that the complacency might be mitigated by the fact that they are playing a team that has just one loss on the season. The 49ers on the other hand, have not played may teams this season which are as good as the Giants all round.

Outright Win: Giants 

v/s the Spread: Giants (+3.5) 

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1)

Patriot fans have their hands on the panic button. But they don't have to. Yup, their defense is in shambles, and Tom Brady has not been so hot last couple weeks. Still, they have Tom Brady! They will be alright. The Jets seem to be finding their identity again, especially on defense. This what makes this an interesting meeting this week.

Outright Win:  Patriots

v/s the Spread: Patriots (+1) 

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

The Cardinals secondary is the exact medicine this beaten up Eagles offense needs. I don't think this will be a 20+ point blowout. But the Eagles should have a comfortable victory under their belt here. Also, Skelton filling in for Kevin Kolb makes it a little easier for the Eagles on defense too.

Outright Win: Eagles

v/s the Spread: N/A

Upset Special of the Week

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+7)

The Ravens are coming of an emotional win against the Steelers. Recipe for a let down game? There is definitely a chance especially at Seattle. Joe Flacco won one last week. Don't think he can do it again. And Seattle has a sneaky good run defense to hold off Ray Rice.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+7) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

The Packers are 8-0..... (Pinching myself...) ... Yup, 8-and-freaking-0!

Still, there are a lot of concerns for this Packer team. The offense is alright. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, and that could be an understatement, if it is even possible. The problem is the Packers seem to be relying solely on the offense to carry them week in and week out. The defense seems to be making some big plays sporadically. But, they still rank near the very end on pass defense. And give up a ton of yards overall. Zeroing on specifics, they are not generating enough pass rush with their defensive front. Bringing in extra men, isn't helping much either. The new problem they had this week is communication breakdown in the secondary leading to big plays to the opponents. I would like to think these are all correctable issues. Fingers crossed.

This week will be a good time to correct some of those against the Vikings.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13.5) 

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3) over Lions
DOLPHINS (-4) over Redskins
Steelers (-3) over BENGALS
SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens
Jaguars (-3) over COLTS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 8-6
v/s the Spread Record: 8-6

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 87-43
v/s the Spread Record: 66-55-6

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 23-20-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/09/2011

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