Thursday, December 22, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 16 Picks

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

The Colts are not win-less no more. But Colt fans are concerned they may end up with a better record than the Vikings or the Rams. Not to worry Colts fans! Your No.1 pick is safe. The Texans had a let down loss last week after winning their division. Not happening this week. 

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-6.5)

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

The Raiders are in a free fall right now. Luckily for them, they get to play the Chiefs a week after the Chiefs beat the then undefeated Packers. Now this game has let down written all over it for the Chiefs. 

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+2.5)

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3)

The Broncos under Tebow have been solid on the road. I expect them to keep that streak going against the Bills who have suddenly turned putrid. A win by the Broncos here, will pretty much seal the AFC West. Sorry, Chargers and Raiders!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (-3)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-7)

The Jaguars are bad. On the road, they are horrible. If the Titans can handle MJD, this game will not even be close.  

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7) 

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)

The Dolphins have been hot of late. But not as hot as the Patriots. Especially coming of their win over Tebow...on the road. But I do see back door cover potential here.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+10)  

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Colt McCoy may not play this week. Not that it matters. It is the 'alternate game' for the Ravens where they play well and once again rope everyone into believing what a playoff threat they are to the entire league. Seen this act before.  

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-13) 

New York Giants at New York Jets (-3)

IMO.. too much of hype given to this game. It is all just because these are both teams from New York (although they play in Jersey... go figure!). How is this not the game where Eli plays brilliantly to keep the Giants playoffs hopes alive.

Outright Win: Gaints 
v/s the Spread: Giatns (+3) 

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

The Redskins should be able to take advantage of that Minnesota secondary to pull this one off, in spite of Rex Grossman. Unless he has one of his bad Rex days... not ruling that off.

Outright Win: Redskins
v/s the Spread: Redskins (-6.5) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

The Bucs are horrible. enough said.

Outright Win: Panthers 
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-7.5) 

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

This has the makings of a great game. Especially if the Broncos lose their early game. I am not going to pick against the chargers in December, though.

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (+2.5)  

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2)

Nice win for the 49ers on Monday Night. But this game, at Seattle, has tremendous 'let down' potential.

Outright Win: Seahwaks 
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+2) 

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

The Cowboys, in spite of their record, have played extremely well over the last few weeks. The Eagles have been hot the lost couple weeks. Something's gotta give here. I say it is the Eagles.

Outright Win: Cowboys 
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-1.5) 

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Great NFC South showdown. Saints will expose the poser Falcons at home.

Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7) 

Upset Special of the Week

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

The Cardinals are good. But how good will they be on the road is the question. Both these teams have their playoff hopes alive at this point. And they will both play hard. I like the Cardinals here though, looking at the way they have played the last few weeks.

Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+4)  

Homer Pick of the Week

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Not perfect no more! No problem! We get to play the Forte-less Bears with Josh McCown as their QB? At Lambeau! I'll take that any day of the week!

But for the long haul, the Packers need to do something about their defense. And try get their O line healthy for the playoffs.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

SEAHAWKS (+2) over 49ers
Raiders (+2.5) over CHIEFS
Texans (-6.5) over COLTS
Broncos (-3) over BILLS
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Bucs

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-8

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 153-71
v/s the Spread Record: 113-97-8

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 40-33-1

* Odds as per "" on 12/21/2011

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