Wednesday, November 30, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 13 Picks


Week 13 Picks:

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

The Bills almost pulled off a win against the Jets. I will not read too much into it though. The Titans might have a chance here to close things a little in the AFC South. At the least, it might make the Texans sweat a little.

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (+1.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (-7)

Classic match up of marquee quarterbacks.... NOT! Not many in America will be excited to watch Tyler Palko (or Kyle Orton) take on the great Caleb Hannie. The Bears will win this easy as long as Hannie doesn't make too many plays for the Chiefs.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-7) 

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3)

The Raiders might have the inside track for the AFC West. But a loss here to Miami might bring them back to the pack in their division. The Dolphins have been playing some gutsy football of late. And the Raiders travel across the coast for this one.

Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-3) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

The Bengals need this game for sure if they want to keep their hopes high for a playoff spot. A loss here will put them in bad shape for any tie break rules that may apply among wild card teams. Then again, the Steelers play ugly, but somehow manage to pull out wins week after week.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+6.5) 

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (+3)

This game will be closer than people think it will be. The Jets are simply not good. Neither are the Redskins. Still, I'll take the Jets defense vs Grossman over the Redskins Defense vs Sanchez.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-3) 

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (+3)

TJ Yates? And with the Falcons run defense curtailing the Texans run game. Dare I say, the writing is on the wall? But the Falcons on the road does scare me a little.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-3) 

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Blount is going to have a huuuuuuuge day here, feasting on the Panthers run defense. The Panthers might able to keep it a little close for a while. But I see a easy Bucs win here.

Outright Win: Bucs
v/s the Spread: Bucs (-3) 

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-20.5)

The first time a line is more than 20 points in over 20 years! And I think that line is not high enough!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-20.5) 

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+6.5)

As tempting as it is to pick the Ravens to have a let down game, I just can't get myself to pick Colt McCoy and the Browns here, even though they are at home.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-6.5) 

St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

As much as I don't like the 49ers offense to cover a spread as high as high as this, they are playing the Rams! 49ers will want to pound the rock, the Rams have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Rams offense is centered upon Stephen Jackson and the run game. The 49ers will just shut down the run. It's like the perfect match up for the 49ers on offense and defense.

Outright Win: 49ers  
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-13.5) 

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

The Cowboys are on a four game win streak. Although the streak is impressive, each win by itself is not. Adding to it that the Cardinals always give the Cowboys a tough game, this could be a tricky game for the Cowboys. Still I don't see Skelton derailing the Cowboys' quest for the NFC East title.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-4.5) 

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Talking about derailing. A loss here could make the Lions tailspin official. Playing this game at New Orleans makes it all the more tougher. Especially against the red hot Saints team (at home).

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-9) 

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

The Chargers, with all their talent on their roster, got to win a game sometime, right?

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-3) 

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-2)

I guess the line on this game is assuming Adrian Peterson will not play. I think even if he plays, the Broncos got this one. Teeebowwwwwww!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+2)

Upset Special of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

The Eagles have Vince Young at QB. They got to play at Seattle! The Eagles are essentially out of the playoff race. They got to play at Seattle! There is the Desean Jackson fiasco. They got to play at Seattle! They can't stop the run. They got to play at Seattle! The shouts for firing Andy Reid is getting louder by the minute. The Eagles got to travel cross country to Seattle. And oh, it's also a short week. They got to play at Seattle!

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+3) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (+7.5)

The Packers are 11-0. But they are statistically not as dominant as 11-0 teams of past years. But the most important thing here is that they are getting it done week after week.

But I can't help but think about the perfect storm that could be brewing for the game against the Giants. The Packers offense has been so good; flawless at times; the first 11 weeks this season. They are due for a stinker sometime. As a fan, I would like that to happen sooner than later. The Packers current win streak of 17 games started with their win against the Giants in Week 15 last season. Could the Giants be the ones that put an end to this impressive streak? Although, there is not "recipe" to beat the Packers this season yet, one way to put pressure on this offense is to pressure Rodgers with only four pass rushers. The Giants have the personnel to do this as well as anybody else in the league. They do have enough weapons on offense to keep pace in a shoot out if need be, too.

But if the Giants show up like they did on Monday night, this game could be over real fast.

Nope, I am not willing to pick against the Packers.... just yet.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-7.5)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6.5) over GIANTS
PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts
FALCONS (-3) over Texans
SEAHAWKS (+3) over Eagles
Broncos (+2) over VIKINGS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 14-2
v/s the Spread Record: 9-5

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 121-55
v/s the Spread Record: 89-73-8

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 33-25-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/30/2011

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 12 Picks

Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh!

Go Pack Go!

On to the Picks.....

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The Dolphins have been playing some inspired football the last few weeks. I still do not trust their pass defense so much. But their overall defense has kept them in games, and Matt Moore has capitalized on them. The Cowboys remain this hot and cold team; just as all their counterparts in the NFC East. Which Cowboys team will show up on turkey Day?

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+7)

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

As much as I like the style of the 49ers and the way they will themselves to stay in games against good teams. I don't think they can overcome the combination of a short week and the Ravens that plays up (or down) to their competition.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-3) 

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets(-9)

Two horrid teams fighting each other for a chance to be relevant in the AFC. The Bills have officially lost their mojo. The Jets never really seemed to have it.Too many injuries for the Bills to cover this spread.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-9)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

The Browns have four wins. No, I'm not kidding. FOUR wins. But if you watch them play, you will understand how underwhelming they look on the field. The Bengals, on the other hand, have played toe to toe with the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks. This should be a piece of cake for them.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-7.5) 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

The Texans may not have Matt Schaub. But their running game has been clicking in all cylinders, it should not matter so much. And add the return of Andre Johnson to the mix. If Matt Leinart just doesn't turn the ball over, the Texans might be better than the last few weeks. The Jaguars are who they are. A team with a weak offense and sneaky good defense. But they are not going to sneak up on a division rival.

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-3.5) 

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Panthers finally get a game they can win in spite of that horrible defense. The Colts might get a few yards, but win a game? I just don't see it.

Outright Win: Panthers
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

The Titans have been inconsistent ever since Kenny Britt went down. But with the struggling Bucs in town, they might be able to hang with the Texans for at least one more week. The Bucs also give up a lot of yards on the ground. Hello Chris Johnson!

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (-3) 

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)

No Adrian Peterson. No problem for the Falcons.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-9.5)  

Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (-4) 

Cutler is out for a few weeks. The Bears will definitely miss him. Yes, the Bears anyways ran their offense through Forte the last few weeks. And their defense and special teams played a big part in their success. But with no Cutler, opposing defenses will load up the box to stop Forte and try make Caleb Hannie beat them through the air.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-4)

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The Redskins managed to almost pull off a win against the Cowboys last week. Only reason I think of for the redskins playing them Cowboys tough: divisional opponent. This time on the road at Seattle, its not going to be that easy.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)  

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5)

The Chiefs may start Tyler Palko or Kyle Orton (who they picked up on waivers today). Whoever they start, I like the Steelers to cover the spread here.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-10.5)

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Everybody is down on the Giants this week. Which means the good Giants team will show up. The problem is the Saints are at home and are incredibly tough to beat. Something's gotta give, right?

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Giants (+7) 

Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams (NL)

No line on this game because of the uncertainty on who will start as QB for the Cardinals. Like that matters? Oh no wait, its against the Rams, so it might matter.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: N/A 

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

Uncertainty about the availability of Mike Vick is the reason for no line here. This is an important game for the Eagles, if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their best chance to do it is if they had Mike Vick in to exploit the Patriots defense. Vince Young might be a "winner", but not when its a shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: N/A

Upset Special of the Week

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-6)

I'm a believer. Timmy Tebow will get it done on the road this time. And he has Norv Turner and Phillip Rivers to shoot themselves in their feet at crunch time to assist him. Tebow now also has added motivation given by his own boss, John Elway unintentionally!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+6) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6.5)

I'm loving this. All the pundits are picking the Lions in an upset here. Which is exactly where the Packers want public opinion to be.

At the same time, I'd be lying if I didn't say I am nervous. The Lions are freaking dangerous.

The Lions match up well against the strengths of the Packers: on offense. They can totally hang with the Packers. To help both teams, both defenses are below average and tend to give up a lot of yards. This is where I am hoping for the Packers to make just more enough game changing plays, maybe turnovers, to make the difference. Fingers crossed!

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6.5)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6.5) over LIONS
Panthers (-3) over COLTS
TITANS (-3) over Buccaneers
SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins
Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 11-3
v/s the Spread Record: 6-6-2

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 107-53
v/s the Spread Record: 80-68-8

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 30-23-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/23/2011

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 11 Picks

Nine-and-oh, baby! Yeah!!!!!

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2)

The hot up start Bills have now cooled down. The Dolphins on the other hand have been playing some good football. Their  two game win streak may not be against great teams, but they are good enough to beat mediocre ones; the Bills are one such team at this point.
Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals might have lost to the Steelers last week. But they did show some resolve in coming back from being down 14 points and keeping this close till the end. Unfortunately, the Ravens just lost to the Seahawks and are going to be hungry for another win. I still like the Bengals to keep this close.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+7) 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (0)

This game has snoozer written all over it. Both these teams have decent enough defenses. Good enough to stymie each other's offenses. I think I'm going to toss a coin to decide this. For real. (Heads - Jaguars and Tails - Browns. Tossing ..... Heads it is!)

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (0) 

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Could Carson Palmer really be as good as he seemed last Thursday? Or was it just a mirage? The Vikings were killed at Lambeau, but they are sneaky good especially if Adrian Peterson can get his legs going early in the game. Still, I think the Raiders have enough in them to pull this off on the road.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-1) 

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7) 

The Lions had their worst outing of the season last week at Soldier Field in Chicago. This will be the game that will show us if that was just a blip, or if the Lions are really spiraling  out of contention this season. They should win this game, but by how much is the question. Nothing says they are back on track than a blow out win against the lowly Panthers

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-7) 

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Cowboys are catching the Redskins at the right time. Or maybe this is how the Redskins are going to be rest of the season. They have NO offense. What so ever. A win here will keep Dallas in the NFC East title hunt, right behind the Giants. 

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-8) 

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The Cardinals suddenly find themselves with a two game win streak. Thanks to... wait for it... John Skelton? Ok, now that's not going to last. Not when you have the up start 49ers coming to town. Talking about the niners. They are done with the tough part of their schedule. 5 of their next 6 games are against he NFC West. Phew! The Packers better look out, a small slip up could see the 49ers taking the No.1 seed.

Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+9.5) 

Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams (-1)

Another NFC West match up. The Seahawks beat the Ravens last week. But this one is on the road. And the Rams are seem to be finding their footing. Bradford to Lloyd connection can only get better. In spite of the Seahawks being pretty good against the run, Stephen Jackson is a beast.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (-1) 

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The see saw ride for the Titans continues. Except for maybe the fact that Chris Johnson could be making a mid-season resurgence. The Falcons are not so hot either. Especially after that 4th down debacle in OT against the Saints. Still, they are at home again. I think they win a close one here

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Titans (+6) 

San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Chargers are just not good this year. Can we all accept that and stop acting surprised every time they goof up? Exact opposite for the Bears. Can we stop acting surprised when the Bears beat good teams? They are GOOD. Especially at home.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-3.5) 

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)

The Chiefs were not that good to begin with. And now with Tyler Palko playing QB, the question really is how big of a blow out this game is going to be.And oh by the way, the Patriots defense might be making a second half comeback this season. Only this time 2003-04 style (no name defensive players making plays all over the field... hello Julian Edleman!). Watch out folks!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-14.5) 

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5)

Mike Vick most probably won't play this game. The Giants after their loss last week will want to rebound real bad. Vince Young and the porous Eagles run defense will help the giants rack up a win here. But just for high drama's (and high comedy) sake, I would love to see Vince Young carry the Eagles to win here on the road. Will that brew up a QB controversy in Philly?

Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-3.5)

Upset Special of the Week

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+7)

Call me crazy. But I think the Broncos have more than a shot at winning this game. The Jets D is great at defending the pass. I'll give them that. Problem here is Timmy Tebow ain't gonna throw that much. The Jets run defense is nothing to sneeze at, but it's been sub par on the road so far this season. The big match up I'll be looking for here is how the Jets offense can do against the Broncos defense. If Von Miller and gang can torment Sanchez all day, the Broncos have a legit shot at this. Add to it the Jets had like three days to prepare for this game.

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+7) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)

The 9-0 Packers are due a let down game anytime now. Especially this week, coming off what people think was their first "complete" game of the season (offense, defense and special teams). Only problem: Aaron Rodgers remembers the last two times he played the Bucs, he had bad games. And knowing Rodger's penchant for keeping mental notes and getting motivation out of it. He is going to have a big game here.

And yeah, the Bucs kinda suck too.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers
Cowboys (-8) over REDSKINS
PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Chiefs
RAMS (-1) over Seahawks
PACKERS (-14) over Buccaneers

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-7

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 96-50
v/s the Spread Record: 74-62-6

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 28-20-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/16/2011

Thursday, November 10, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 10 Picks

Its Week 10. The Packers are 8-0. Life is good.

Now on to the picks:

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The AFC West seems to be a mess at the moment. Three teams are tied at 4-4 and the Broncos are right behind, trailing by just one game. This game is not only important for both teams to get ahead in the standings, but a tie breaker edge will go a long way especially in such a close division.

Outright Win: Chargers

v/s the Spread: Chargers (-7) 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

The Bengals finally get a quality opponent to prove to the rest of the league that they are for real. The Steelers on the other hand, get a chance to keep up with the Ravens in the AFC North. Although same can be said about the Bengals. This game will show us a lot more about the Bengals than the Steelers.

Outright Win:  Steelers

v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3) 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Tim Tebow fever was revived last week after they beat the Raiders in the black hole. But doing the same at Arrow Head will be harder. Still, never say never with Tebow. Especially after the Chiefs struggled last week against the win-less Dolphins. This might be the typical rebound game for the Chiefs after a tough loss.

Outright Win:  Chiefs

v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-3) 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Jaguars had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. That's way too much time for an opponent that seems to be tanking on purpose. Add to the equation that the Jaguars defense is sneaky good; especially their pass defense.

Outright Win:  Jaguars

v/s the Spread: Jaguars (-3) 

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bills had a tough loss against the Jets, who just shut their offense down. Period. The Cowboys might have a better front four than the Jets. But the Dallas secondary is weak. The Bills should score some, and the Cowboys should be able to score against the Bills too. That kid Demarco Murray seems to be for real. I think this will be a close game at the end.

Outright Win: Cowboys

v/s the Spread: Bills (+5.5) 

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

The Texans after a couple of weeks of facing bad teams, face an average to above average teams. Can their offense keep up the good work? The Bcus have their own problems. Josh Freeman seems to have regressed this season. And the Legarette Blount isn't the burner he shows glimpses of being.

Outright Win: Texans

v/s the Spread: Texans (-3) 

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Titans are really missing Kenny Britt to get their offense going. Chris Johnson had a decent game last week. If at all he is going to have a break out game, it would be this week against the Panthers. Cam Newton will have another good game to pad up his candidacy for the rookie of the year. This time, it might come with a Win.

Outright Win: Panthers

v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (-4)

The Redskins are bad. Really bad. They find it so hard to score any points these days. Miami is coming off their first win of the season. You might think that will lead to a let down game this week. But not against this Redskins team. And the Dolphins have a pretty good defense.

Outright Win: Dolphins

v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-4) 

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (PK)

This is a huge game for the NFC South race. The Falcons seem to getting back on track. I will be convinced of that only if they can show up and play this game tight. The Saints seem to struggle on the road this season. The dome in Atlanta will be loud and ready for them.

Outright Win: Falcons

v/s the Spread: Falcons (0) 

St Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Rams have a chance if Stephen Jackson carries this team on his back. They might need a little more from Sam Bradford and the WRs more as a decoy to clear lanes for Jackson. The Rams defense does not face a big challenge when facing the Browns. Still, the Brown might have just enough in them, if they can only keep it close in the first quarter.

Outright Win: Browns

v/s the Spread: Browns (-2.5) 

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

This is going to be a closely fought NFC North game. The Lions beat the Bears at home earlier in the year. This time, the Lions will not have their crowd noise that helped get so many Bears penalties at Soldier Field. Also, it is going to be cold in the mid-west this week. Advantage Bears.

Outright Win: Bears

v/s the Spread: Bears (-3) 

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The Giants managed to pull off another upset of the Patriots, this time at Foxboro. It felt so eerily like that Super Bowl game in 2008 (2007-08 season). Now the Giants are on the road against the up start 49ers. This could be a let down game for the Giants, except that the complacency might be mitigated by the fact that they are playing a team that has just one loss on the season. The 49ers on the other hand, have not played may teams this season which are as good as the Giants all round.

Outright Win: Giants 

v/s the Spread: Giants (+3.5) 

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1)

Patriot fans have their hands on the panic button. But they don't have to. Yup, their defense is in shambles, and Tom Brady has not been so hot last couple weeks. Still, they have Tom Brady! They will be alright. The Jets seem to be finding their identity again, especially on defense. This what makes this an interesting meeting this week.

Outright Win:  Patriots

v/s the Spread: Patriots (+1) 

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

The Cardinals secondary is the exact medicine this beaten up Eagles offense needs. I don't think this will be a 20+ point blowout. But the Eagles should have a comfortable victory under their belt here. Also, Skelton filling in for Kevin Kolb makes it a little easier for the Eagles on defense too.

Outright Win: Eagles

v/s the Spread: N/A

Upset Special of the Week

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+7)

The Ravens are coming of an emotional win against the Steelers. Recipe for a let down game? There is definitely a chance especially at Seattle. Joe Flacco won one last week. Don't think he can do it again. And Seattle has a sneaky good run defense to hold off Ray Rice.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+7) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

The Packers are 8-0..... (Pinching myself...) ... Yup, 8-and-freaking-0!

Still, there are a lot of concerns for this Packer team. The offense is alright. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, and that could be an understatement, if it is even possible. The problem is the Packers seem to be relying solely on the offense to carry them week in and week out. The defense seems to be making some big plays sporadically. But, they still rank near the very end on pass defense. And give up a ton of yards overall. Zeroing on specifics, they are not generating enough pass rush with their defensive front. Bringing in extra men, isn't helping much either. The new problem they had this week is communication breakdown in the secondary leading to big plays to the opponents. I would like to think these are all correctable issues. Fingers crossed.

This week will be a good time to correct some of those against the Vikings.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13.5) 

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3) over Lions
DOLPHINS (-4) over Redskins
Steelers (-3) over BENGALS
SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens
Jaguars (-3) over COLTS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 8-6
v/s the Spread Record: 8-6

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 87-43
v/s the Spread Record: 66-55-6

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 23-20-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/09/2011

Thursday, November 3, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 9 Picks

My lack of preparation time for last week showed up in my abysmal Week 8 picks against the spread. Hoping to do better this time around:

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Falcons have an easy date with the Colts coming off tehir bye week. They should be able to take care of business here; almost a second bye week in a row. On the other side, the hush hush "suck for luck" campaign by the Colts continues.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-7) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

The Saints' roller coaster ride will continue. They will dominate the Bucs at home this week. Josh Freeman suddenly seems to have lost that cool composure vibe he used to give out.

Outright Win:  Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-8.5) 

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-11)

The Browns seem to be losing their games in the first quarter, when they are heavily outscored. They can keep this close if they can just curtail the Texans offense in the begining. Easier said than done. The Texans have the inside track for the AFC South division. They would just like to sail through the rest of the games without the usual Kubiak floundering in the second half of the season.

Outright Win:  Texans
v/s the Spread: Browns (+11) 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

I am still not confident of the Jets. I think the Bills will end up being the 2nd best team in their division behind the Patriots (if they are not already). Expect this to be a low scoring game, with a lot of running from both teams.

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-1.5) 

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

The Chiefs are tied for first place in their division after that horrid start? Really got to give it up to the splendid coaching job there by the Chiefs' staff. With the Chargers barely able to stand by themselves and the Raiders going with the Palmer experiment, the Chiefs might have a good shot at winnign their division again. And what better way to rack up a win, than by playing the Dolphins at home.

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-4) 

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

The 49ers are probably not favored more in this game, just because they got to travel cross country and play in the Eastern time zone. The Redskins have nothing on offense with John Beck at QB and that slew of injuries. The 49ers are on pace to clich their division by Thanksgiving.

Outright Win: 49ers 
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-3.5) 

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-12)

The Cowboys are coming of a bad loss on the road. They should be able to get back on track with the futile Seattle offense coming to town. To me, this line should be higher, given that the Caowboys will play with more urgency after the Eagles loss.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-12) 

St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Its one of those NFC west showdowns that seems to be inconsequential given that the 49ers are almost a lock to win this division.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (+3)

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-8)

Tim Tebow vs Carson Palmer. This is the dream match up for people that love to watch efficient QB play.... NOT. There will be INTs. There will be tons of incompletions. There might even be a few pick 6s. But the Raiders running game might see them through this, especially at home. But I like the Broncos to keep it close and cover with some garbage time points.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+8) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Ttians (-3)

Andy Dalton! Dare I say, the under the radar front runner for the offensive Rookie of the year? Then Bengals are 5-2. And tied for 2nd place in the AFC North. They are also catching the Titans at the right time, when they are struggling on offense.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+3) 

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-8.5)

Bill Bellichick and Tom Brady are playing after a losing week. Enough Said! I expect this to be a closely fought shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Giants (+8.5) 

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers will want to avenge their  Week 1 humiliation at the hands of the Ravens. And this time, they know how the Ravens offense is not so hot under the always flustered Joe Flacco. I expect the Steelers to win big here.

Outright Win: Steelers 
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3.5) 

Upset Special of the Week

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)

Yeah, the Eagles beat hte Cowboys in a blowout. But if we know anything about this Eagles offense, its that they are very inconsistent under Vick. I would be eating my words if they let McCoy carry the team with the running game. But I don't see Andy Reid doing that. Moreover, the Bears are well known for surprising people when everyone thinks they are down.

Outright Win: Bears 
v/s the Spread: Bears (+8) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers (+6)

The Chargers just find a way to shoot themselves in their foot. They just do. And its no secret anymore. The Chargers have never been 6 point (or more) underdogs at home since 2003.

The Packers are coming of a bye, and are facing a banged up Chargers who may not have their best 3 running backs healthy for the game Sunday. But, this could be that obvious trap game for the Packers. Yes, they had 2 weeks to prepare for the Bolts, but the underwhelming Chargers performance on Monday could easily put complacency in the Packers. And that listless performance by the Chargers will only make them play harder this week. So, this game will be a challenge for the Packers. A possibility at an undefeated half season is on the line here. Will the Packers show up in the form they were before the bye week?

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6) 

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6) over CHARGERS
CHIEFS (-4) over Dolphins
STEELERS (-3.5) over Ravens
49ers (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Falcons (-7) over COLTS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 9-4
v/s the Spread Record: 5-8

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 79-37
v/s the Spread Record: 58-49-6

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 20-19-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/02/2011