Wednesday, November 30, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 13 Picks


Week 13 Picks:

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

The Bills almost pulled off a win against the Jets. I will not read too much into it though. The Titans might have a chance here to close things a little in the AFC South. At the least, it might make the Texans sweat a little.

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (+1.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (-7)

Classic match up of marquee quarterbacks.... NOT! Not many in America will be excited to watch Tyler Palko (or Kyle Orton) take on the great Caleb Hannie. The Bears will win this easy as long as Hannie doesn't make too many plays for the Chiefs.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-7) 

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3)

The Raiders might have the inside track for the AFC West. But a loss here to Miami might bring them back to the pack in their division. The Dolphins have been playing some gutsy football of late. And the Raiders travel across the coast for this one.

Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-3) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

The Bengals need this game for sure if they want to keep their hopes high for a playoff spot. A loss here will put them in bad shape for any tie break rules that may apply among wild card teams. Then again, the Steelers play ugly, but somehow manage to pull out wins week after week.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+6.5) 

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (+3)

This game will be closer than people think it will be. The Jets are simply not good. Neither are the Redskins. Still, I'll take the Jets defense vs Grossman over the Redskins Defense vs Sanchez.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-3) 

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (+3)

TJ Yates? And with the Falcons run defense curtailing the Texans run game. Dare I say, the writing is on the wall? But the Falcons on the road does scare me a little.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-3) 

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Blount is going to have a huuuuuuuge day here, feasting on the Panthers run defense. The Panthers might able to keep it a little close for a while. But I see a easy Bucs win here.

Outright Win: Bucs
v/s the Spread: Bucs (-3) 

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-20.5)

The first time a line is more than 20 points in over 20 years! And I think that line is not high enough!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-20.5) 

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+6.5)

As tempting as it is to pick the Ravens to have a let down game, I just can't get myself to pick Colt McCoy and the Browns here, even though they are at home.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-6.5) 

St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

As much as I don't like the 49ers offense to cover a spread as high as high as this, they are playing the Rams! 49ers will want to pound the rock, the Rams have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Rams offense is centered upon Stephen Jackson and the run game. The 49ers will just shut down the run. It's like the perfect match up for the 49ers on offense and defense.

Outright Win: 49ers  
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-13.5) 

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

The Cowboys are on a four game win streak. Although the streak is impressive, each win by itself is not. Adding to it that the Cardinals always give the Cowboys a tough game, this could be a tricky game for the Cowboys. Still I don't see Skelton derailing the Cowboys' quest for the NFC East title.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-4.5) 

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Talking about derailing. A loss here could make the Lions tailspin official. Playing this game at New Orleans makes it all the more tougher. Especially against the red hot Saints team (at home).

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-9) 

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

The Chargers, with all their talent on their roster, got to win a game sometime, right?

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-3) 

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-2)

I guess the line on this game is assuming Adrian Peterson will not play. I think even if he plays, the Broncos got this one. Teeebowwwwwww!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+2)

Upset Special of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

The Eagles have Vince Young at QB. They got to play at Seattle! The Eagles are essentially out of the playoff race. They got to play at Seattle! There is the Desean Jackson fiasco. They got to play at Seattle! They can't stop the run. They got to play at Seattle! The shouts for firing Andy Reid is getting louder by the minute. The Eagles got to travel cross country to Seattle. And oh, it's also a short week. They got to play at Seattle!

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+3) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (+7.5)

The Packers are 11-0. But they are statistically not as dominant as 11-0 teams of past years. But the most important thing here is that they are getting it done week after week.

But I can't help but think about the perfect storm that could be brewing for the game against the Giants. The Packers offense has been so good; flawless at times; the first 11 weeks this season. They are due for a stinker sometime. As a fan, I would like that to happen sooner than later. The Packers current win streak of 17 games started with their win against the Giants in Week 15 last season. Could the Giants be the ones that put an end to this impressive streak? Although, there is not "recipe" to beat the Packers this season yet, one way to put pressure on this offense is to pressure Rodgers with only four pass rushers. The Giants have the personnel to do this as well as anybody else in the league. They do have enough weapons on offense to keep pace in a shoot out if need be, too.

But if the Giants show up like they did on Monday night, this game could be over real fast.

Nope, I am not willing to pick against the Packers.... just yet.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-7.5)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6.5) over GIANTS
PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts
FALCONS (-3) over Texans
SEAHAWKS (+3) over Eagles
Broncos (+2) over VIKINGS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 14-2
v/s the Spread Record: 9-5

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 121-55
v/s the Spread Record: 89-73-8

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 33-25-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/30/2011

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