Thursday, December 8, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 14 Picks

12-0! Phew!!

NFC North Champs! Go Pack Go!

on to the picks....

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

The Browns are going to get clobbered here. At Pitt, on a short week, with the Steelers rolling right now. Odds are stacked against you Cleveland. The Steelers are getting into that playoff gear and they scare me as a Packer fan.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-14)

Rest of the picks... later this week.....

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-16.5)

The Ravens will have to win to stay ahead of the Steelers in their division race. If that was not motivation enough, they face the Colts!

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-16.5)

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

TJ Yates has been impressive in his last two outings (for a rookie). But that streak of winning with backup QBs ends for the Texans here. The Bengals may not be a dominant team at home, but they might be just good enough to win this and hang around in the AFC North race.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-3)

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-9)

The Jets have not been impressive at all in their last few games, but have managed to win a few in unenviable fashion to keep their playoff hopes high. I think that trend continues here. Hello Palko!

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-9)

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Mike Vick might be back, and the Eagles maybe starting to get healthy. But I do not see how the Eagles stop the Dolphins running game. If the Dolphins can only contain Vick a little bit, they should be able to pull this off. And it helps that the Eagles are not that good after all.

Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-3)

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Patriots just suffered a backdoor cover against the Colts last week. They should have no problem covering this spread though. Even on the road at Washington.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-8)

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3)

The Panthers have been playing good of late on offense. Even if they turn this into a shoot out, I don't see them beating the Falcons. Expect Turner to have a monster game here. But then again, who knows what could happen in a divisional game.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-3)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2)

The Bucs are real bad.... and so are the Jaguars. But I trust the Jaguars defense, playing at home, and MJD will make that slight difference to take this snooze-fest.

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+2)

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-10)

The Lions just have to have this game, if they have any hopes of making the playoffs. The Vikings will try stop their losing streak here. But I don't see the latter happening.

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-10)

St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10)

Seattle is at home. No Bradford. The rest of the Rams seem to have already given up on the season. Unless Stephen Jackson wills his team here, its hard to even see them cover.

Outright Win: Seahwaks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (-10)

San Francisco 49ers  at Arizona Cardinals (+4)

The 49ers just clinched their division last week. The Cardinals are also hot, all of a sudden, especially at home. This has upset/letdown game written all over it, doesn't it? This will be the toughest test for Harbaugh to see if he can keep the minds of his players in it.

Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (-4)

Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Tebow-mania continues! Not much threat to be expected from Caleb Hannie and Marion Barber. Only hope for Chicago here is for their defense to score or Devin Hester to return a kick or two all the way home!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The Chargers have finally managed to pull together two good performances in a row. The Bills, coming into San Diego are in a funk of their own. I think the Chargers string another good game, but the Bills manage to keep it close and cover.

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Bills (+7)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Classic NFC East showdown! Or so it would seem. I have a feeling this is going to be a blow out one way or the other. Law of averages would suggest, the Cowboys are due a win over the Giants at their new stadium. (Cowboys are 0-2). But my money is on the Giants to build off their momentum from last week's almost upset of the Packers.

Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (+3)

Upset Special of the Week

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

The Saints have been prolific on offense the last couple weeks. But now, they are on the road! Not the same comfort level for Brees and his receiving group away from the Super-dome. And Chris Johnson is heating up. I see the Titans pulling off an upset here. A close one, none-the-less.

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (+3.5) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11)

The Raiders are banged up. The Packers are 12-0! The Raiders haven't won in the state of Wisconsin... for ever. The Packers are 12-0! The Raiders will have to hope their defense can keep the Packers scoring under control. The Packers are 12-0!

Also a win here will extend the Packers winning streak to 19 games, in sole possession of the second longest winning streak in the history of the league.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-11)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

PACKERS (-11) over Raiders
Patriots (-8) over Redskins
JAGUARS (+2) over Bucs
Falcons (-3) over PANTHERS
DOLPHINS (-3) over Eagles

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 12-4
v/s the Spread Record: 9-7

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 133-59
v/s the Spread Record: 98-80-8

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 35-28-1

* Odds as per "" on 12/07/2011

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