Thursday, November 3, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 9 Picks

My lack of preparation time for last week showed up in my abysmal Week 8 picks against the spread. Hoping to do better this time around:

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Falcons have an easy date with the Colts coming off tehir bye week. They should be able to take care of business here; almost a second bye week in a row. On the other side, the hush hush "suck for luck" campaign by the Colts continues.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-7) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

The Saints' roller coaster ride will continue. They will dominate the Bucs at home this week. Josh Freeman suddenly seems to have lost that cool composure vibe he used to give out.

Outright Win:  Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-8.5) 

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-11)

The Browns seem to be losing their games in the first quarter, when they are heavily outscored. They can keep this close if they can just curtail the Texans offense in the begining. Easier said than done. The Texans have the inside track for the AFC South division. They would just like to sail through the rest of the games without the usual Kubiak floundering in the second half of the season.

Outright Win:  Texans
v/s the Spread: Browns (+11) 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

I am still not confident of the Jets. I think the Bills will end up being the 2nd best team in their division behind the Patriots (if they are not already). Expect this to be a low scoring game, with a lot of running from both teams.

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-1.5) 

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

The Chiefs are tied for first place in their division after that horrid start? Really got to give it up to the splendid coaching job there by the Chiefs' staff. With the Chargers barely able to stand by themselves and the Raiders going with the Palmer experiment, the Chiefs might have a good shot at winnign their division again. And what better way to rack up a win, than by playing the Dolphins at home.

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-4) 

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

The 49ers are probably not favored more in this game, just because they got to travel cross country and play in the Eastern time zone. The Redskins have nothing on offense with John Beck at QB and that slew of injuries. The 49ers are on pace to clich their division by Thanksgiving.

Outright Win: 49ers 
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-3.5) 

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-12)

The Cowboys are coming of a bad loss on the road. They should be able to get back on track with the futile Seattle offense coming to town. To me, this line should be higher, given that the Caowboys will play with more urgency after the Eagles loss.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-12) 

St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Its one of those NFC west showdowns that seems to be inconsequential given that the 49ers are almost a lock to win this division.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (+3)

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-8)

Tim Tebow vs Carson Palmer. This is the dream match up for people that love to watch efficient QB play.... NOT. There will be INTs. There will be tons of incompletions. There might even be a few pick 6s. But the Raiders running game might see them through this, especially at home. But I like the Broncos to keep it close and cover with some garbage time points.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+8) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Ttians (-3)

Andy Dalton! Dare I say, the under the radar front runner for the offensive Rookie of the year? Then Bengals are 5-2. And tied for 2nd place in the AFC North. They are also catching the Titans at the right time, when they are struggling on offense.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+3) 

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-8.5)

Bill Bellichick and Tom Brady are playing after a losing week. Enough Said! I expect this to be a closely fought shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Giants (+8.5) 

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers will want to avenge their  Week 1 humiliation at the hands of the Ravens. And this time, they know how the Ravens offense is not so hot under the always flustered Joe Flacco. I expect the Steelers to win big here.

Outright Win: Steelers 
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3.5) 

Upset Special of the Week

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)

Yeah, the Eagles beat hte Cowboys in a blowout. But if we know anything about this Eagles offense, its that they are very inconsistent under Vick. I would be eating my words if they let McCoy carry the team with the running game. But I don't see Andy Reid doing that. Moreover, the Bears are well known for surprising people when everyone thinks they are down.

Outright Win: Bears 
v/s the Spread: Bears (+8) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers (+6)

The Chargers just find a way to shoot themselves in their foot. They just do. And its no secret anymore. The Chargers have never been 6 point (or more) underdogs at home since 2003.

The Packers are coming of a bye, and are facing a banged up Chargers who may not have their best 3 running backs healthy for the game Sunday. But, this could be that obvious trap game for the Packers. Yes, they had 2 weeks to prepare for the Bolts, but the underwhelming Chargers performance on Monday could easily put complacency in the Packers. And that listless performance by the Chargers will only make them play harder this week. So, this game will be a challenge for the Packers. A possibility at an undefeated half season is on the line here. Will the Packers show up in the form they were before the bye week?

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6) 

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6) over CHARGERS
CHIEFS (-4) over Dolphins
STEELERS (-3.5) over Ravens
49ers (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Falcons (-7) over COLTS

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 9-4
v/s the Spread Record: 5-8

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 79-37
v/s the Spread Record: 58-49-6

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 20-19-1

* Odds as per "" on 11/02/2011

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