NFL 2011: Week 11 Picks

Nine-and-oh, baby! Yeah!!!!!

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2)

The hot up start Bills have now cooled down. The Dolphins on the other hand have been playing some good football. Their  two game win streak may not be against great teams, but they are good enough to beat mediocre ones; the Bills are one such team at this point.
 
Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals might have lost to the Steelers last week. But they did show some resolve in coming back from being down 14 points and keeping this close till the end. Unfortunately, the Ravens just lost to the Seahawks and are going to be hungry for another win. I still like the Bengals to keep this close.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+7) 


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (0)

This game has snoozer written all over it. Both these teams have decent enough defenses. Good enough to stymie each other's offenses. I think I'm going to toss a coin to decide this. For real. (Heads - Jaguars and Tails - Browns. Tossing ..... Heads it is!)

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (0) 


Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Could Carson Palmer really be as good as he seemed last Thursday? Or was it just a mirage? The Vikings were killed at Lambeau, but they are sneaky good especially if Adrian Peterson can get his legs going early in the game. Still, I think the Raiders have enough in them to pull this off on the road.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-1) 


Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7) 

The Lions had their worst outing of the season last week at Soldier Field in Chicago. This will be the game that will show us if that was just a blip, or if the Lions are really spiraling  out of contention this season. They should win this game, but by how much is the question. Nothing says they are back on track than a blow out win against the lowly Panthers

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-7) 


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Cowboys are catching the Redskins at the right time. Or maybe this is how the Redskins are going to be rest of the season. They have NO offense. What so ever. A win here will keep Dallas in the NFC East title hunt, right behind the Giants. 

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-8) 


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The Cardinals suddenly find themselves with a two game win streak. Thanks to... wait for it... John Skelton? Ok, now that's not going to last. Not when you have the up start 49ers coming to town. Talking about the niners. They are done with the tough part of their schedule. 5 of their next 6 games are against he NFC West. Phew! The Packers better look out, a small slip up could see the 49ers taking the No.1 seed.

Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+9.5) 


Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams (-1)

Another NFC West match up. The Seahawks beat the Ravens last week. But this one is on the road. And the Rams are seem to be finding their footing. Bradford to Lloyd connection can only get better. In spite of the Seahawks being pretty good against the run, Stephen Jackson is a beast.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (-1) 


Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The see saw ride for the Titans continues. Except for maybe the fact that Chris Johnson could be making a mid-season resurgence. The Falcons are not so hot either. Especially after that 4th down debacle in OT against the Saints. Still, they are at home again. I think they win a close one here

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Titans (+6) 


San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Chargers are just not good this year. Can we all accept that and stop acting surprised every time they goof up? Exact opposite for the Bears. Can we stop acting surprised when the Bears beat good teams? They are GOOD. Especially at home.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-3.5) 


Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)

The Chiefs were not that good to begin with. And now with Tyler Palko playing QB, the question really is how big of a blow out this game is going to be.And oh by the way, the Patriots defense might be making a second half comeback this season. Only this time 2003-04 style (no name defensive players making plays all over the field... hello Julian Edleman!). Watch out folks!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-14.5) 


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5)

Mike Vick most probably won't play this game. The Giants after their loss last week will want to rebound real bad. Vince Young and the porous Eagles run defense will help the giants rack up a win here. But just for high drama's (and high comedy) sake, I would love to see Vince Young carry the Eagles to win here on the road. Will that brew up a QB controversy in Philly?


Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-3.5)


Upset Special of the Week

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+7)

Call me crazy. But I think the Broncos have more than a shot at winning this game. The Jets D is great at defending the pass. I'll give them that. Problem here is Timmy Tebow ain't gonna throw that much. The Jets run defense is nothing to sneeze at, but it's been sub par on the road so far this season. The big match up I'll be looking for here is how the Jets offense can do against the Broncos defense. If Von Miller and gang can torment Sanchez all day, the Broncos have a legit shot at this. Add to it the Jets had like three days to prepare for this game.

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+7) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)

The 9-0 Packers are due a let down game anytime now. Especially this week, coming off what people think was their first "complete" game of the season (offense, defense and special teams). Only problem: Aaron Rodgers remembers the last two times he played the Bucs, he had bad games. And knowing Rodger's penchant for keeping mental notes and getting motivation out of it. He is going to have a big game here.

And yeah, the Bucs kinda suck too.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers
Cowboys (-8) over REDSKINS
PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Chiefs
RAMS (-1) over Seahawks
PACKERS (-14) over Buccaneers

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-7

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 96-50
v/s the Spread Record: 74-62-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 28-20-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/16/2011

NFL 2011: Week 10 Picks

Its Week 10. The Packers are 8-0. Life is good.

Now on to the picks:


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The AFC West seems to be a mess at the moment. Three teams are tied at 4-4 and the Broncos are right behind, trailing by just one game. This game is not only important for both teams to get ahead in the standings, but a tie breaker edge will go a long way especially in such a close division.

Outright Win: Chargers

v/s the Spread: Chargers (-7) 


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

The Bengals finally get a quality opponent to prove to the rest of the league that they are for real. The Steelers on the other hand, get a chance to keep up with the Ravens in the AFC North. Although same can be said about the Bengals. This game will show us a lot more about the Bengals than the Steelers.

Outright Win:  Steelers

v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3) 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Tim Tebow fever was revived last week after they beat the Raiders in the black hole. But doing the same at Arrow Head will be harder. Still, never say never with Tebow. Especially after the Chiefs struggled last week against the win-less Dolphins. This might be the typical rebound game for the Chiefs after a tough loss.

Outright Win:  Chiefs

v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-3) 


Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Jaguars had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. That's way too much time for an opponent that seems to be tanking on purpose. Add to the equation that the Jaguars defense is sneaky good; especially their pass defense.

Outright Win:  Jaguars

v/s the Spread: Jaguars (-3) 


Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bills had a tough loss against the Jets, who just shut their offense down. Period. The Cowboys might have a better front four than the Jets. But the Dallas secondary is weak. The Bills should score some, and the Cowboys should be able to score against the Bills too. That kid Demarco Murray seems to be for real. I think this will be a close game at the end.

Outright Win: Cowboys

v/s the Spread: Bills (+5.5) 



Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

The Texans after a couple of weeks of facing bad teams, face an average to above average teams. Can their offense keep up the good work? The Bcus have their own problems. Josh Freeman seems to have regressed this season. And the Legarette Blount isn't the burner he shows glimpses of being.

Outright Win: Texans

v/s the Spread: Texans (-3) 



Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Titans are really missing Kenny Britt to get their offense going. Chris Johnson had a decent game last week. If at all he is going to have a break out game, it would be this week against the Panthers. Cam Newton will have another good game to pad up his candidacy for the rookie of the year. This time, it might come with a Win.

Outright Win: Panthers

v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 


Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (-4)

The Redskins are bad. Really bad. They find it so hard to score any points these days. Miami is coming off their first win of the season. You might think that will lead to a let down game this week. But not against this Redskins team. And the Dolphins have a pretty good defense.

Outright Win: Dolphins

v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-4) 


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (PK)

This is a huge game for the NFC South race. The Falcons seem to getting back on track. I will be convinced of that only if they can show up and play this game tight. The Saints seem to struggle on the road this season. The dome in Atlanta will be loud and ready for them.

Outright Win: Falcons

v/s the Spread: Falcons (0) 


St Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Rams have a chance if Stephen Jackson carries this team on his back. They might need a little more from Sam Bradford and the WRs more as a decoy to clear lanes for Jackson. The Rams defense does not face a big challenge when facing the Browns. Still, the Brown might have just enough in them, if they can only keep it close in the first quarter.

Outright Win: Browns

v/s the Spread: Browns (-2.5) 



Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

This is going to be a closely fought NFC North game. The Lions beat the Bears at home earlier in the year. This time, the Lions will not have their crowd noise that helped get so many Bears penalties at Soldier Field. Also, it is going to be cold in the mid-west this week. Advantage Bears.

Outright Win: Bears

v/s the Spread: Bears (-3) 


New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The Giants managed to pull off another upset of the Patriots, this time at Foxboro. It felt so eerily like that Super Bowl game in 2008 (2007-08 season). Now the Giants are on the road against the up start 49ers. This could be a let down game for the Giants, except that the complacency might be mitigated by the fact that they are playing a team that has just one loss on the season. The 49ers on the other hand, have not played may teams this season which are as good as the Giants all round.

Outright Win: Giants 

v/s the Spread: Giants (+3.5) 


New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1)

Patriot fans have their hands on the panic button. But they don't have to. Yup, their defense is in shambles, and Tom Brady has not been so hot last couple weeks. Still, they have Tom Brady! They will be alright. The Jets seem to be finding their identity again, especially on defense. This what makes this an interesting meeting this week.

Outright Win:  Patriots

v/s the Spread: Patriots (+1) 


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

The Cardinals secondary is the exact medicine this beaten up Eagles offense needs. I don't think this will be a 20+ point blowout. But the Eagles should have a comfortable victory under their belt here. Also, Skelton filling in for Kevin Kolb makes it a little easier for the Eagles on defense too.

Outright Win: Eagles

v/s the Spread: N/A


Upset Special of the Week


Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+7)

The Ravens are coming of an emotional win against the Steelers. Recipe for a let down game? There is definitely a chance especially at Seattle. Joe Flacco won one last week. Don't think he can do it again. And Seattle has a sneaky good run defense to hold off Ray Rice.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+7) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

The Packers are 8-0..... (Pinching myself...) ... Yup, 8-and-freaking-0!

Still, there are a lot of concerns for this Packer team. The offense is alright. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, and that could be an understatement, if it is even possible. The problem is the Packers seem to be relying solely on the offense to carry them week in and week out. The defense seems to be making some big plays sporadically. But, they still rank near the very end on pass defense. And give up a ton of yards overall. Zeroing on specifics, they are not generating enough pass rush with their defensive front. Bringing in extra men, isn't helping much either. The new problem they had this week is communication breakdown in the secondary leading to big plays to the opponents. I would like to think these are all correctable issues. Fingers crossed.

This week will be a good time to correct some of those against the Vikings.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13.5) 


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3) over Lions
DOLPHINS (-4) over Redskins
Steelers (-3) over BENGALS
SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens
Jaguars (-3) over COLTS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 8-6
v/s the Spread Record: 8-6

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 87-43
v/s the Spread Record: 66-55-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 23-20-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/09/2011

NFL 2011: Week 9 Picks

My lack of preparation time for last week showed up in my abysmal Week 8 picks against the spread. Hoping to do better this time around:

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Falcons have an easy date with the Colts coming off tehir bye week. They should be able to take care of business here; almost a second bye week in a row. On the other side, the hush hush "suck for luck" campaign by the Colts continues.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-7) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

The Saints' roller coaster ride will continue. They will dominate the Bucs at home this week. Josh Freeman suddenly seems to have lost that cool composure vibe he used to give out.

Outright Win:  Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-8.5) 

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-11)

The Browns seem to be losing their games in the first quarter, when they are heavily outscored. They can keep this close if they can just curtail the Texans offense in the begining. Easier said than done. The Texans have the inside track for the AFC South division. They would just like to sail through the rest of the games without the usual Kubiak floundering in the second half of the season.

Outright Win:  Texans
v/s the Spread: Browns (+11) 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

I am still not confident of the Jets. I think the Bills will end up being the 2nd best team in their division behind the Patriots (if they are not already). Expect this to be a low scoring game, with a lot of running from both teams.

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-1.5) 

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

The Chiefs are tied for first place in their division after that horrid start? Really got to give it up to the splendid coaching job there by the Chiefs' staff. With the Chargers barely able to stand by themselves and the Raiders going with the Palmer experiment, the Chiefs might have a good shot at winnign their division again. And what better way to rack up a win, than by playing the Dolphins at home.

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-4) 

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

The 49ers are probably not favored more in this game, just because they got to travel cross country and play in the Eastern time zone. The Redskins have nothing on offense with John Beck at QB and that slew of injuries. The 49ers are on pace to clich their division by Thanksgiving.

Outright Win: 49ers 
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-3.5) 

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-12)

The Cowboys are coming of a bad loss on the road. They should be able to get back on track with the futile Seattle offense coming to town. To me, this line should be higher, given that the Caowboys will play with more urgency after the Eagles loss.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-12) 

St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Its one of those NFC west showdowns that seems to be inconsequential given that the 49ers are almost a lock to win this division.


Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (+3)

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-8)

Tim Tebow vs Carson Palmer. This is the dream match up for people that love to watch efficient QB play.... NOT. There will be INTs. There will be tons of incompletions. There might even be a few pick 6s. But the Raiders running game might see them through this, especially at home. But I like the Broncos to keep it close and cover with some garbage time points.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+8) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Ttians (-3)

Andy Dalton! Dare I say, the under the radar front runner for the offensive Rookie of the year? Then Bengals are 5-2. And tied for 2nd place in the AFC North. They are also catching the Titans at the right time, when they are struggling on offense.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+3) 

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-8.5)

Bill Bellichick and Tom Brady are playing after a losing week. Enough Said! I expect this to be a closely fought shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Giants (+8.5) 

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers will want to avenge their  Week 1 humiliation at the hands of the Ravens. And this time, they know how the Ravens offense is not so hot under the always flustered Joe Flacco. I expect the Steelers to win big here.

Outright Win: Steelers 
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3.5) 


Upset Special of the Week

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)

Yeah, the Eagles beat hte Cowboys in a blowout. But if we know anything about this Eagles offense, its that they are very inconsistent under Vick. I would be eating my words if they let McCoy carry the team with the running game. But I don't see Andy Reid doing that. Moreover, the Bears are well known for surprising people when everyone thinks they are down.

Outright Win: Bears 
v/s the Spread: Bears (+8) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers (+6)

The Chargers just find a way to shoot themselves in their foot. They just do. And its no secret anymore. The Chargers have never been 6 point (or more) underdogs at home since 2003.

The Packers are coming of a bye, and are facing a banged up Chargers who may not have their best 3 running backs healthy for the game Sunday. But, this could be that obvious trap game for the Packers. Yes, they had 2 weeks to prepare for the Bolts, but the underwhelming Chargers performance on Monday could easily put complacency in the Packers. And that listless performance by the Chargers will only make them play harder this week. So, this game will be a challenge for the Packers. A possibility at an undefeated half season is on the line here. Will the Packers show up in the form they were before the bye week?

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6) 


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6) over CHARGERS
CHIEFS (-4) over Dolphins
STEELERS (-3.5) over Ravens
49ers (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Falcons (-7) over COLTS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-4
v/s the Spread Record: 5-8

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 79-37
v/s the Spread Record: 58-49-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 20-19-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/02/2011

NFL 2011: Week 8 Picks

Due to lack of time, just the quick Picks:

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-9)

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (-9)


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5)

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+9.5)


Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Outright Win: Panthers
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3.5)


New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+14)

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-14)


Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-12.5)


Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-9.5)

Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-9.5)


Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-6)

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-6)


Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (+3)

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-3)


New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-3)


Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-9)

Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: Browns (+9)


Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-3)


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
 
Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (+3.5)


Upset Special of the Week


San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4)

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (+4)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

CHIEFS (+4) over Chargers
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Vikings
Patriots (-3) over STEELERS
GIANTS (-9.5) over Dolphins
Cowboys (+3.5) over EAGLES


Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 8-5
v/s the Spread Record: 6-6-1

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 70-33
v/s the Spread Record: 53-41-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 19-15-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 10/27/2011

NFL 2011: Week 7 Picks

Not so hot Week 6 picks against the spread. Hoping to do better here:


Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) [* in London]

Too bad for the Bucs losing a home game to London. But they are coming of a nice road win against the Saints. Can they keep it up against the Bears? The Bears did their part in demolishing the Vikings. Finally, Mike Martz seems to have found out how to get most off that Chicago offensive arsenal he has. By "offensive arsenal", I mean Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.

Outright Win:  Bears 
v/s the Spread: Bears (-1) 


Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

The Redskins finally got to see bad Rex and now John Beck will take over reigns in Washington. Mike Shanahan might just end up shuffling his QBs like he shuffles his RBs; just have that feeling. The Panthers finally get an uninspired game by Cam. Are defenses on him? Or was it just an off night? He is the only reason they have a chance of winning a few games this year. Their run game is nothing to boast of and their defense is just plain awful. I'd still take him and the Panthers this game over John Beck's Redskins.

Outright Win: Panthers  
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-2.5)


San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (+2)

Rex Ryan and Norv Turner are already exchanging verbal barbs. Borrrring! Lets just get this game going. The over achieving Jets against the under achieving Chargers. The Chargers D might not be as dominant as in years past, but they are going against Sanchez and that anemic Jets offense. Something's gotta give here. My bet is on the Chargers D keeping the Jets offense in "struggle" mode. But this game will be closer than people think because the Jets D is for real.

Outright Win: Chargers 
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-2)


Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3)

The Seahawks are on the road again. I am going on a limb here and saying their win against the flaky Giants on the road couple weeks ago was just an aberration. The Browns are better than people think they are. And the more time Colt McCoy plays under this west coast offense, the Browns are going to get better.

Outright Win:  Browns 
 v/s the Spread: Browns (-3)


Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

No Andre Johnson? I don't expect too much out of these Texans. Their defense already has taken a few steps back with the injury to Mario Williams. The Titans, coming off that bye, could take the inside track to this division with a win here. Matt Hasselbeck will get his team to play hard after that beating they took against the Steelers couple weeks ago.

Outright Win:  Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-3)


Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The Falcons have finally figured that they have to win games the way they did last year. Run the ball and use Matt Ryan's arm just to move the chains. Can they stick to that plan, is the question. The Lions will be pissed after last weeks loss to the 49ers. They will come guns blazing at home this week. And their stadium will be LOUD. More penalties for the Falcons!

Outright Win:  Lions 
v/s the Spread: Lions (-3.5)



Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-4.5)

I really like the Carson Palmer trade for the Raiders. Yeah, steep prize to pay, but I think Palmer makes them an immediate contender this season. I am aware about the last couple years of futile performances of Palmer in Cincinnati. But, here in Oakland, he needs to just be slightly more than a reliable game manager, with that running game the raiders have. He's more than capable of doing it. Only question is, how accurate will his deep throws down field be?

Outright Win:  Raiders 
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-4.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

The Steelers were hell-bent on running the ball a lot against a good Jaguars pass defense last week. This week they will be airing it out a lot against the weak Cardinals secondary. No way the Cardinals can keep up with the Steelers, even though the Steelers defense is not so hot.

Outright Win:  Steelers 
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3.5)


St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Sam Bradford might sit this one out. That's the good news for the Cowboys. The bad news is that they are 12.5 points favorites in this game. Not a good sign for Romo, who has a penchant for shrinking at the big stage. But against that depleted Rams secondary, assuming Jason Garett learnt his lesson from last week's NE game and puts the ball in Romo's hands to throw, Romo should get this done.

Outright Win: Cowboys 
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-12.5)


 Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-14)

Another front runner in the "Suck for Luck" campaign goes on the road against a Saints team that just got humiliated by Tampa Bay. The Saints will want to prove that they are better than that and also will have the emotional drive to get this one for their coach, who has a torn MCL. Not that the Saints need it against the Painter led Colts.

Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Saints (-14)


Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)

The Ravens are looking dangerous. Not only are they dominant on defense. They are looking really good on offense too. I have no idea why the line hear is not higher in favor of the Ravens. The Jaguars have an above average pass defense, but they will have no answer to Ray Rice and the Ravens run game.

Outright Win: Ravens  
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-7.5)


Upset Special of the Week

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

Its Tebow time! Call me crazy, but there is something about this kid when he plays in a game situation. As underwhelming he (and his mechanics) might seem in practice, he really has the "it" factor to will his team to play hard. And they are going against the Dolphins who are the top dogs for the "Suck for Luck" campaign. Hello Matt Moore! I really like the Broncos to score an uplifting win here.

Outright Win: Broncos 
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+1.5)

Homer Pick of the Week


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9)

The Packers had a rather quiet win against the Rams. People might think their defense is back to 2010 form after giving up just three points in the last six quarters. But it should be noted that four of those quarters was against a Rams team. Also, they did give up a lot of yards to the Rams. We may not know a whole lot about the defense until after the bye as the Vikings are going with their rookie QB, Ponder. While another rookie (Cam Newton) torched the Packer defense earlier in the year, I don't see Dom Capers letting it happen twice in six games.

The Packers O line may have a stiff test against Jared Allen and the other D linemen of the Vikings. Especially if Marshall Newhouse is starting. The Packers will most probably rest all their banged up players, if not anything, to make sure they go somewhat healthy into the bye week. So I do not expect, Zombo, Clifton etc to play this weekend. The rest of the offense is firing in all cylinders. Nitpicking though, I can say that the two main concerns on offense, other than the O line are the running game and the drops by Packer receivers.

Outright Win: Packers 
v/s the Spread: Packers (-9)

 
My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-9) over VIKINGS
Ravens (-7.5) over JAGUARS
Steelers (-3.5) over CARDINALS
Broncos (+1.5) over DOLPHINS
RAIDERS (-4.5) over Chiefs

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-4 
v/s the Spread Record: 5-6-2

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 62-28 
v/s the Spread Record: 47-35-5

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 17-12-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 10/19/2011

NFL 2011: Week 6 Picks

Week 5 was my best in terms of picking overall. Went 10-3 straight up and 9-3-1 against the spread. Hope to continue that trend:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12)

The Jaguars, in spite of not being win-less, are definitely in the conversation of being the worst team in the league. They will have a hard time keeping this close. The Steelers keep surprising everyone by showing up big just when people start writing them off. Mark of a veteran, well coached team. Classic.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-12)

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+1.5)

The "Dream Team" is not so dreamy no more with a 1-4 record through five weeks. And they have way too many glaring flaws to fix overnight. Still, their best hope will be to reduce mental mistakes and take care of the football. That might win them a few games by outscoring marginal teams on their schedule. To be a contender though, they will have to do something to fix their defense; especially their run defense and tackling. This team, in general, seems to take on the reckless playing style of Mike Vick, trying to emulate his highlight reel type plays, making far too many mistakes and turning the ball too many times in the process. Then again, if Vick was given a 100 million dollar contract just to do that. What a mess!

The Redskins are one of the NFC East teams that should be laughing inside watching the Eagles implode. This gives them one less team to worry about in their quest for the divisional title. But, for them to be considered serious contenders, they have to take care of business at home, putting away a struggling Eagles team. Mike Shanahan's run game is a good recipe to match up against the Eagles run defense. Question is if the Redskins can hold off Mike Vick and the explosive Eagles offense that is desperate to have that break out game.

Outright Win: Eagles
v/s the Spread: Eagles (-1.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions (-4.5)

Who would have thought a 49ers - Lions game in Week 6 will be a match up between division leaders having just one loss vetween them? The 49ers have had a solid last six quarters. The Lions are going to try hard to put a dent on that. The 49ers secondary will be tested this week. Their run defense is stout, but I'd like to see how it fares against a shifty back like Best. On the flip side, the Lions D line will be licking their chops at facing this 49ers offensive line. Yes, the 49ers have a boatload of high draft picks on that O line. Still, I would like to give the edge to the Detroit D line here. This game will show us if the 2011 Alex Smith for real or just a mirage.

Outright Win: Lions 
v/s the Spread: Lions (-4.5)

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

The Colts blew a big lead against Kansas City last week. this could mean two things: the Chiefs are suddenly playing hard and/or the Colts are intentionally botching this season leading the pack of bad teams in the "suck for luck" campaign. I'd like to give them the benefit of doubt and assume its the former for now. This will be a low scoring game. The Colts offense won't have as much success as it has had the last two weeks against this Mike Zimmer defense of the Bengals. The same way, Andy Dalton will realize that the Colts defense is way faster than the Jaguars defense he faced last week.

Outright Win: Bengals 
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-7)

Buffalo Bills at New York Giants (-3)

This is a tough game to call. The Bills have a great offense, but are not so hot on defense. The Giants have a solid offense, that gets lucky at times and that implodes at times. The Giants defense is strong on the front seven, but their secondary is a big question mark. I am tempted to pick the Giants to have a comeback game here after last week's debacle against Seattle. The Bills will have to lose a few games some time or the other. This will be one.

Outright Win: Giants 
v/s the Spread: Giants (-3)

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

It should be no surprise that the Texans offense is not the same without Andre Johnson. Now with Matt Schaub banged up and with Mario Williams out on Defense, the Texans are not looking all that hot anymore. Good for them the AFC South stinks. But if they are not careful, the Titans could steal this division from under their feet. The Ravens have had two weeks to prepare for this battered Texan team. I expect the Ravens defense to dominate this one.

Outright Win: Ravens 
v/s the Spread: Ravens (+3.5)

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-7)

The Raiders had a nice win against the Texans on the road last week. It was the "Al Davis" game. They had to have it, didn't they? With the Browns in town, the Raiders have a chance at that rare chance at consecutive wins. The Browns though, will bea tougher out than the Raiders think. I expect this game to be close, but the Raiders will have just enough to pull off a W at the end.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Browns (+7)

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-7)

This game has the potential to be the "Game of the Week". The key to Brady spreading out and tearing apart opposing defenses is the time he gets from his O line protection. He might not be so safe facing the Dallas D linemen. The Patriots will have to mix it up with some running plays to keep the dallas defensive line off balance. The skinny though, is that if the Cowboys don't get any pressure up front, Brady could rip apart that Cowboys defense and this could be over before we know it. The Cowboys offense should be able to throw for a ton of yards against the Patriots Defense, unless Romo decides to do his "thing".

Outright Win: Patriots 
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-7)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5)

The NFC South is the Saints to lose. the Falcons and the Bucs (to a certain extent) are reeling. The Saints could cement their position atop this division with a win here. What more? They are well poised to do so. The Bucs are going to have a hard time stopping the Saints offense when they could not hold off the Alex Smith led 49ers.

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-4.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

The Vikings finally managed to hold off an opponent after taking a lead into the second half. If McNaab can be decent, they stand a good chance here against the Bears. The Bears have a pathetic offensive line as witnessed on Monday Night Football. Jared Allen is already licking his chops thinking about going against htat unit this Sunday. The Bears are also missing their Defensive End, Julius Peppers with an MCL Sprain, which is going to hurt them a lot. I like how the Viking offense matches up well against hte Tampa 2 defense here.

Outright Win: Vikings 
v/s the Spread: Vikings (+3)

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-7)

The Jets finally get a weak opponent they can feast on... that too at home. The Jets will like to also accomplish two things here. Keep their running game going with Shonn Green. And also try get Sanchez to throw a bit to build some of his confidence, which seems lost. The Jets D will be just fine against the anaemic Dolphins offense.

Outright Win: Jets 
v/s the Spread: Jets (-7)


Upset Special of the Week

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) 
I just don't think these Falcons are any good. This is the game I think Cam Newton takes the next step from being a back door cover guy to the straight up winner. The Falcons pass defense is subpar. Other facets of their team are not that great either. They have also lost that invincibility aura at home. And they are going against a team that is hungry for a win.

Outright Win: Panthers 
v/s the Spread: Panthers (+3.5)


Homer Pick of the Week

St Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers (-15)

The Packers somehow eeked out a win against the Falcons last week. It had the feel of the Packers' 2010 season all over it. They were down 14-0. Then, their Left Tackle, Chad Clifton goes down. Their starting Right Tackle Bulaga didn't even start this game. They suddenly found themselves with two first year starters, both considered marginal at best coming out of training camp. Surprisingly, the two youngsters: Marshall Newhouse (make shift LT) and Derek Sherod (RT) held their own, while Rodgers took over the game and willed the Packers to an unlikely victory. and hey, they even covered the spread!

This week, they are going against one of the worst pass rushes in the league this year in the Rams. So, if last week was any indication, that should not pose a problem for hte Packers offense. But on the other side of the ball, the Packers defense, seemed to have gotten its mojo back second half of the Falcon's game. Was that for real? Or was it just that the inept Falcons offense made it seem that way. After all, the Packers are still ranked near the bottom in the league on defense. That is what I will be looking for in this game. Is the Packers defense back?

Outright Win: Packers 
v/s the Spread: Packers (-15)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

PACKERS (-15) over Rams
JETS (-7) over Dolphins
PATRIOTS (-7) over Cowboys
RAVENS (-7.5) over Texans
STEELERS (-12) over Jaguars

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 10-3

v/s the Spread Record: 9-3-1

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 53-24 

v/s the Spread Record: 42-29-3 

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 14-10-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 10/12/2011

NFL 2011: Week 5 Picks

With a quarter of the 2011 NFL season done, we have a clearer picture of who are the contenders and pretenders this year. Still, we might need a couple more weeks to get a better read. Some things that I would like to keep an eye on: Are the Titans for real with Matt Hasselbeck under Center? Will the Eagles and the Cowboys recover from their botched starts? Are the fast starts by the 49ers, Bills and Lions sustainable? Can the Packers and the Patriots continue dominating opponents with this weird combination of an explosive offense and a porous defense? (Both these teams are on pace to shatter the NFL record for most yards allowed by a team in a year). Will the NFC West have a above 0.500 division winner this year? Are the Jets and Steelers just going to fade away or will they make a late push to contend?

With a decent week of picking games against the spread last week, I'm going to try keep that going here:


Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

People who tune into this game: Snoozer Alert! Just because the Colts played the Steelers and the Bucs tough in two National TV games, does not warrant all the Curtis Painter pandering. The Chiefs have definitely shown some spirit to play hard the last couple weeks. It might end up being a closely fought game. But it WILL be a snoozer.

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (+2.5)


Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Every week I watch Kevin Kolb play, I get more convinced that the Cardinals got the raw end of that trade giving up so much for an average QB. Lucky for him, he has Larry Fitzgerald, who catches anything thrown within his vicinity. While the Cardinals running game does not look so good on the surface, the numbers indicate that it is pretty effective. The Vikings need more out of their QB to keep their running game effective. Adrian Peterson is great. But there is only so much he can do against 8 men in the box. Maybe this is the week McNaab gets things moving a bit, against the weak Cardinals secondary.

Outright Win: Vikings 
v/s the Spread: Vikings (-3)


Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (+3)

The "Dream Team" just had a gut check. They are 1-3 and only about 14% of teams that have started 1-3 in the NFL have gone on to make the playoffs. That makes this pretty much a must-win game for the Eagles. Too bad they are going against the Bills, who just fell victim to a typical trap game. They will be able to score a bunch and keep up with the offensive pace of Mike Vick and the Eagles. What worries me about the Bills is their lack of pass rush. But that might also be a good thing for the Bills, because it makes Vick a typical pocket passer and will take out all those electrifying plays out of the game. I also like the matchup of the Bills running game against the weak Eagles run defense.

Outright Win: Bills 
v/s the Spread: Bills (+3)


Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)

The Texans showed they are for real against the Steelers. But they are yet to prove if they can be consistently that good. They face a stiff test against the Raiders, who just might be for real. The absence of Andre Johnson will hurt them in the passing game. Arian Foster was his 2010 self last week. But it might be a little harder to run amok against that Raiders defensive front. The best chance for the Raiders is if they can keep the ball in the hands of McFadden and out of the hands of Jason Campbell.

Outright Win: Texans 
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+6)


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)

Cam Newton's middle name should be "Backdoor". He seems to find a way to do just enough to cover the spread. This week, people should like his chances of doing just that at home. But I am confident that Brees led Saints will find a way to win this on the road.


Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Panthers (+6.5)


Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)

The Bengals, as I expected, are a tough out. Andy Dalton just does enough to not lose the game for them, while their defense keeps them in every game. The Jaguars are tough to figure out. They have been in games the last two weeks, but no one seemed to take note of that.

Outright Win: Bengals 
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+2.5)


Seattle Sehawks at New York Giants (-9.5)

You might say the Giants pile up wins by being lucky. I say better be lucky than good.Talk about being lucky, they have the Seahawks coming in to play them this week.Yes, the Seahawks are on the road again. Which means, they are going to suck again.

Outright Win: Giants 
v/s the Spread: Giants (-9.5)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The 49ers are 3-1 and have a 2 game lead in their division through 4 games? Who would have thought? They now face, a Tampa Bay team, that many people think under achieved against the Colts on Monday Night. Adding to the equation that the 49ers are stout against the run and the Bucs have a short week flying across the coast.

Outright Win: 49ers 
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-3)

 
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9)

The Jets are just not so good. Normally, I would not hesitate to pick against them this week. But, Rex Ryan always conjures up his best schemes against Tom Brady. So that just made me pause for a few seconds before I pick .....

Outright Win: Patriots 
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-9)


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+4)

The Chargers are slowly getting better. But they have been having problems of late with their AFC West opponents. Especially on the road. I don't expect Denver to give them much resistance though. As the public clamor for Tebow increases, the pressure on Orton also increases. Which is not good for the Broncos.

Outright Win: Chargers 
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-4)


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

The Lions made an improbable comeback to beat the Cowboys. And now, are favored by 5.5 points against the Bears? This has trap game written all over it. I still expect Megatron to pull down a TD or two to get the win, but the Bears should cover.

Outright Win: Lions 
v/s the Spread: Bears (+5.5)


Upset Special of the Week

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

The Steelers say Big Ben will play this week. But Mendenhall is pretty much out. Their defense, uncharacteristically, seems to be not so strong against the run. Could this be the day Chris Johnson breaks out? Talking about the Titans, if Hasselbeck is not the revelation of the year so far (Sorry, Cam), not sure who is.

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (+3)


Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+6)

This is a monster game for especially for fans of  both the Packers and the Falcons. There is some kind of a rivalry brewing here. The Packers lost in over time to the Falcons last year during the regular season. But then, got their revenge in the divisional round of the playoffs, whipping the Falcons in their house, 48-21; and the game was not even as close as that lop sided score indicates. To add to the rivalry, Roddy White mouthed off during the off season about how the Falcons were the better team in spite of that loss. This has got to motivate the Packers to do them one more time; again, in their own house. No wonder NBC decided to feature this as their Sunday Night game of the week.

Leaving all the story lines aside, the Packers will have to work hard in holding back the Falcons pass rush. If they can manage to do that, Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against the Falcons secondary. And yeah, Rodgers loves playing in domes. Mike Turner may not be a big factor with the Packer's strong run defense. The problem for the Packers, as has been every week thus far, will be on pass defense. The Falcons might be able to hang in the game making this a shoot out. Although a shootout probably favors a pass-happy Packer team, letting teams hanging around in the game will someday come back to bite you. Ask the Patriots (vs the Bills in Week 3).

Outright Win: Packers 
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6) over FALCONS
BILLS (+3) over Eagles
PATRIOTS (-9) over Jets
Chargers (-4) over BRONCOS
Titans (+3) over STEELERS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 11-5

v/s the Spread Record: 10-5

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 43-21 

v/s the Spread Record: 33-26-2 

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 11-9

* Odds as per "Sportsbook.com" on 10/05/2011

NFL 2011: Week 4 Picks

What an exciting Week 3 of NFL we just had? At one point, all eight early games were one score games in the 4th quarter. Thanks to DIERCTV Game Mix, I had a very exciting morning of football on Sunday, although overwhelming at times. Later in the afternoon, the Packers' trouncing of the Bears made my day. YOTTO ("Year of the Take Over") indeed!

Wish I had done a little better on my picks against the spread, but hey, you can't have it all. I am going to try do a better job this week:


New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)

Drew Brees carried the Saints on his back to make an improbable comeback against Houston last week. As predicted by many, including yours truly, this game was a shootout. And that always favors the Saints at home, especially when they are going against a Wade Phillips coached defense.

The Jaguars managed to keep the game against the Panthers close in the monsoon game last week. Blaine Gabbert looked raw. But can you blame him after being forced into the starting QB role in Jacksonville? Even though the Jaguars are given 7 points at home, it's hard to pick them against the Saints.

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7)


Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (PK)

The Redskins defense is deceivingly good. Except for the fact that they keep getting burnt when they go on all out blitzes time after time, especially on 3rd and long situations. A little conservative approach might go a long way in making the defense more effective. Bad Rex Grossman showed up last week when he faced pressure from the Dallas D line. The pressure up front won't be as good this week.

The Rams are in a 0-3 hole now. Still, not to anyone's surprise, they are still more than alive in the NFC West. But a loss here might get them closer to the edge of the cliff. They will have to play a disciplined game and learn not to shoot themselves in the foot. A lot will also depend on how much load Stephen Jackson can carry. I'm not going against a team that has its back to the wall.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (0)


Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Kenny Britt's injury is a huge loss for the Titans. Especially with Chris Johnson not taking off; at least not yet. Matt Hasselbeck should now find a new favorite target to keep the Titans offense going. The Browns offense seem to be better than their stats indicate. Their defense is also pretty solid. This will be a close game.

Outright Win: Browns
v/s the Spread: Browns (-1)


Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)

Are the Bills are for real? A come from behind win after being down 21 points against the Patriots does make a strong case. But the caveat here is that it was against the Patriots defense. Playing the Bengals on the road should be walk in the park for a 3-0 Bills team, you would think. But this has all the makings of a trap game, with the Bills still basking in the limelight after beating the Patriots. A let down is likely.

Then again, they are going against Andy Dalton and the Bengals, who might not even have Cedric Benson to pound the rock. So I think the Bills will survive this one.

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-3.5)


Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)

The Vikings seem to have a split personality. The "first half" Vikings seem to be able to score some points and also keep opponents from scoring a whole lot. The "second half" Vikings find a way to give up the lead built up over the first half and some more. Why they don't let Adrian Peterson carry the team on his back in the second half of every game, I will never understand.

The Chiefs played the Chargers hard, almost pulling off an upset there. But I wouldn't read too much into it. The Chargers under Norv Turner, as usual, get creative in making things harder for themselves every September.

Outright Win: Vikings
v/s the Spread: Vikings (-1.5)


Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6)