NFL 2010: Week 6 Picks

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Chicago Bears
Expect the Seahawks to be meek on the road. Cutler is back to start for the Bears. And they should have enough to cover a TD.
Outright Win:  Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-6.5)

Detroit Lions (+10) at New York Giants
The Lions have their first win of the season under their belt. People expect the Giants to dominate the Lions D by throwing the ball a lot. But that may not work against the improving Detroit secondary. The Giants will have to win this game running the ball efficiently.
Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Lions (+10)

Atlanta Falcons (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Falcons might just be the best team in the NFC. But Matt Ryan seems to struggle on the road. So expect this game to stay close, even though the Falcons are going against a not so formidable Eagles Defense.
Outright Win: Falcons 
v/s the Spread: Falcons (+3)

Cleveland Browns (+13.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Tale of two teams: The Browns are going to start rookie Colt McCoy at QB. On the other side, the Steelers get back their star QB after his suspension.
Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-13.5)

San Diego Chargers (-8.5) at St. Louis Rams
The Chargers should easily cover this if they do not give up points to careless turnovers and special teams mishap.
Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-8.5)

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Its no secret that the Saints are struggling on offense. And the Buccaneers are scrappy enough that they have just one loss, behind a solid defense and an effective young QB. I expect this game to go down to the wire, but the Saints should be able to pull this off.

A Giant Celebration!

The SF Giants might have only won the NLDS. Still miles to go if they were to achieve the ultimate goal in baseball. Yet, for this team of farm grown young guns, veteran cast-aways and the playoff deprived Giants fans, it means a lot just to be in the NLCS.

One reason this team, unlike the 2003 team that got here (and went on to the World Series), is very likable to everyone. The cool heads of veterans that have been there before: Burrell, Renteria, Rowand and Uribe. The excited veterans having their first playoff run: Freddy Sanchez, Huff and Ross. The exciting rookie crop: Mad Bumgarner and Buster Posey. The utility guys: Ishikawa, Scheiroltz, the Panda (his off-year has made him just a utility guy), Torres. And the awesome pitching staff: Timmy, Matt, Jonathan Sanchez, the Beardman Wilson and the bullpen.

These diverse types of persona in the club house have gelled together very well indeed. The chemistry in the club house is real loose and self-less. The guys are just happy to pick each other up. And that is the big reason why they can never be counted out against anyone. And of course, that awesome pitching has something to do with it. It's fun to watch these guys celebrate here after their NLDS win over the Atlanta Braves:



And the Giants fans have been unbelievable. Here's a video by a fan that has gone viral of late. It is a must watch and...... “Don’t Stop Believin'!!!!!!"



Game on Phillies!! ....its time you "Fear the Beard!"

NFL 2010: Week 5 Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
This could be that let down game for the Jaguars after beating the Colts last week. But hey, it's the Bills! MJD and Gerrard should be able to get it done.
Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Coming of the bye week, the Bucs will be prepared to take on the Bengals. Carson Palmer will try to throw a bunch of times to TO and Ochocinco, to try exploit the weak TB corners.
Outright Win:  Bengals
v/s the Spread:  Buccaneers (+6.5)

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Falcons might just underestimate the Browns here. If they do, they are in for a surprise. The Browns are a tough out this year.
Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Browns (+3.5)

St Louis Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
The Lions had another close game against the Packers last week. If they keep this one close, they just might get their first win of the year. The Rams will take away some valuable experience for their young players from this game.
Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Rams (+3.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (+8.5) at Indianapolis Colts
I am not going to bet against the Colts in a game after a loss to their divisional rivals. They do have to take care of their run defense, especially after losing Bullit this week.
Outright Win: Colts
v/s the Spread: Colts (-8.5)


Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Cutler is out this week because of the concussion from Sunday night. Matt Forte will have to carry the Bears on his back to give them a chance. The Panthers under Jimmy Clausen are not going to run away with the game. So Todd Collins will have a chance to win a close one at the end.
Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-2.5)

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have had a tough few weeks to open the season. They cannot afford to take a breather here, with Orton, on pace for 5600+ yds throwing this season, coming to town. Ray Lewis will have the defense ready.
Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (+7.5)

New York Giants (+3.5) at Houston Texans
The Giants Defense is coming off a high after dismantling the Bears last week. Houston will not make it as easy as they had it last week, although the Texans are without their starting Left Tackle. I expect the Texans to run a lot early in the game to counter the Giants' pass rush.

NFL Power Rankings

Here are my ranking of NFL teams after one quarter of the season.

1. Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Their only loss was against the Bengals. But that was a Sunday game after a short week following a Monday Night win vs the Jets in New Jersey. On top of that, them beating the Steelers (albeit a Big Ben less Steeler team) on the road was as impressive as it gets.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): The Steelers get Big Ben back. Even if he is not up to form, it will be a definite upgrade over the trio of QBs they tried the first 4 week. Scary eh?
3. NY Jets (3-1): The Jets' only loss: The Ravens on opening week by 1 point. And the re-emergence of the old LT.
4. New Orleans (3-1): The Saints have looked shaky on offense. But they should get back to rythm when all their injured players start coming back.
5. Houston Texans (3-1): Their only loss was to the desperate Cowboys, after two inspired performances (beating the Colts and then beating the Redskins in OT)
6. New England Patriots (3-1): Their secondary on defense is real suspect. But they just have so many weapons on offense that they can hang with anyone on offense. Their only loss: at Jets.
7. Green Bay Packers (3-1): The Packers have had their moments. But, an undisciplined MNF performance brought them their only loss. There are questions about how their defense can fare against an above average offense. Also a shaky special teams unit does not help their cause.
8. Atlanta Falcons (3-1): Their only loss was to the Steelers in OT. But on the flip side, they are a missed FG (by Saints) and a bone-head fumble (by Nate Clemens of the 49ers) away from being 1-3

The Miracle in Baton Rouge

The LSU-Tennessee game this weekend had a crazy ending. Likes of which we haven't seen for a while. Watch how LSU pulls this one off:

NFL 2010: Week 4 Picks

Monday Night Disaster

The Packers - Bears Monday nighter lived up to it's hype only in terms of how close the game was. It was a horrible display of professional football; more so by the Packers than the Bears. The Packers committed a franchise record 18 penalties, apart from other missed chances, special teams blunders and coaching gaffes.

Mike McCarthy has taken a lot of heat for some of those mistakes, and to be honest, deservedly so. First off, five years at the helm, and he still does not have a serviceable special teams unit? He is too red-flag friendly, to the team's detriment, especially in close games like on Monday. Although he is an offense guy, being the head coach, he has to take some blame for the Packers ineptitude on defense.

Monday Night also brought to light an interesting coaches situational dilemma. With 1:44 minutes left on the clock and the Bears having first-and-goal inside the Packers five yard line, should he have let the Bears score? Football purists are generally opposed to that strategy. Their reasoning being, by intentionally letting your opponent score, you are eliminating the possibilities of forcing a turnover and/or forcing a FG mis-hap (blocked FG or missed FG).

On the contrary, the odds of those happening within the 5 yard line would be like wishing for a fluky stroke of luck. With the new age, saber-metric guys around, statistical data has more validity than ever before to drive coaches decisions, or at least back them up. Statistically (based on reported simulations), the odds of Packers getting the ball back and taking the game to OT by not letting the opponent score was estimated at about 3%. Letting the Bears score a TD to save time for another game tying drive, increased those odds to only about 10%. Still, as a coach, isn't it a no-brainer to give your team the best chance to win? But, of course, it would have woken ghosts of Mike Holmgren's decision to let the Broncos score at the end of the Super Bowl XXXIII, which the Packers went on to lose.

But after giving it a few days to marinate in my head, I have come to the conclusion that the biggest reason for such a poor showing by the Packers was the Defense and Special Teams units. A good number of those 18 penalties was by the defense. And we all know how big of a game-changer are those pass interference penalties. Not to mention those dropped INTs and inability to create turnovers even though opportunities popped up right in front of them time after time. The Bears on the other hand, were killing the Packers on special teams, including a punt return TD by Hester. That was the biggest offensive threat posed by the Bears all night long. Yeah, we could blame the incidents of the last two plus minutes of the game.But, in my opinion, the Packers squandered chances to put away the game the previous 58 minutes. The defense and special teams units should take a big chink of the blame for this.

Bleeding Orange yet?

I know I am!

The San Francisco Giants are on the verge of clinching the NL West Division. It will be their first playoff appearance since 2003. As they say, it has been a marathon and looks like the Giants are going to have that strong sprint to finish it with style.

The Giants' season has had its ups and downs. Right after spring training, the make-up of the team was way different than it is now. The starting pitching rotation has been the only constant, except for Mad Bumgarner cementing the No.5 pitcher spot. The plan on offense was to have the lineup work around Pablo Sandoval, Mark Derosa, Bengie Molina and Freddy Sanchez, with some help from veterans Aaron Rowand and Juan Uribe, hoping that Travis Ishikawa and/or Nate Scheiroltz will have a break out season to help steady the ship.

The plan kept changing as the Giants kept adapting to what felt right all the way through, riding all the hot hands and streaks right through September. Aubrey Huff was their best signing of the off season, and the Buster Posey call-up was a godsend, right away upgrading the Bengie Molina spot in the batting order. Posey has also been an excellent catcher. the highlight of which being, calling 18 games in a row, where the Giants pitchers gave up 3 runs or less in each, a major league record since the 1920s. It would be a travesty if he doesn't win the Rookie of the Year award. I know its hard to imagine this kid is just a rookie.

NFL 2010: Week 3 Picks

Atlanta Falcons (+4) at New Orleans Saints
The Falcons proved with a big win over the Cardinals that they have a team that is ready to contend with the big boys of the NFL. The Saints managed to sneak out with a win Monday against the 49ers even though the Saints did not bring their game last Monday Night. But now they have to play a Falcons team after a short week. Gonna be another nail Biter.
Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (+4)

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The 49ers imploded against the Seahawks week 1 and then beat themselves to give away the Monday Night game. Still in a week NFC West, they are very much in it if they can pick themselves up and play efficiently. Although the Chiefs are 2-0, they are not favored over the 0-2 49ers. It will be hard to beat the Chiefs at loud arrow head stadium though.
Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-2.5)

Detroit Lions (+11) at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings need this one bad. The weak Lions secondary could very well be the spark that the dormant Vikings offense needs. Shaun Hill is a capable care-taker QB, who can have a spirited game or two. No way he can keep it going.
Outright Win: Vikings
v/s the Spread: Lions (+11)