Thursday, December 15, 2011

NFL 2011: Week 15 Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11)

The Falcons don't need added advantage of a shorter week to beat the Jaguars. They get it anyways. Still, this will be a closer game than people think. The Jaguars have a sneaky good defense and MJD has been on a roll of late.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+11) 

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) 

Must-win game for the Cowboys? You think? Lucky for them, they get a free-falling Buccaneers team. A Cowboys win here might mean the firing of Raheem Morris as the Head Coach of the Bucs. And I think the writing is on the wall. Unless of course the Cowboys find a way to lose again, as they do every December.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-7) 

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-7)

 The Giants are one of those teams that I would hate to face in the playoffs (Steelers and Patriots are the others). But the Giants also have the penchant, like the Ravens, to play down (or up) to the level of their opponents. Not happening this week. I can't see Rex Grossman having three good weeks in a row. Sorry. Still it will be a close game.

Outright Win: Giants 
v/s the Spread: Redskins (+7) 

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (+7)

The Saints are on the road again. But this time its the Vikings. If Adrian Peterson does not play, there is no way the Viking QBs play a flawless game. A couple turnovers by the Vikings will play into the strength of this Saints defense.

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7) 

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-6.5) 

The Texans are rolling with TJ Yates. Well, not exactly rolling, but, doing just enough to win. This week, the Panthers bring home a bad run defense, playing right into the strength of the Texans. Count another win for the Texans, who might end up winning a first round bye.

Outright Win: Texans 
v/s the Spread: Texans (-6.5) 

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Titans have lost their division, but have an outside chance of making the playoffs through the wild card route (far fetched as it may be). No way are they giving the Colts their first win. And I will be kicking myself if the Colts manage to get the back door cover in this game too.

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7) 

Cincinnati Bengals at St Louis Rams (+6.5)

The Rams are a mess. Enuf said.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-6.5) 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2)

The Bills are also a mess. And the Dolphins will be playing hard for their new/interim coach.

Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (+1.5)

The Raiders have not been the same since that Rolando McLain arrest. Then again, this is their first game at home since that incident. But I do not think it will make a difference.

Outright Win: Lions 
v/s the Spread: Lions (-1.5) 

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+6)

The Patriots against Tebow? What a ratings bonanza for the NFL? On paper, it seems ripe for an interesting match up. Tebow vs the bad Pats pass defense. The Patriots offense vs the solid Denver defense. But let's be real folks! No way Tom Brady is getting Tebow'ed. I don't even think Tebow covers here.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-6) 

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Eagles still have an outside shot at the playoffs. I'm not kidding. But that hope will be lost this week. The Jets should be able to pull this win, just like they have been doing the past few weeks. Also, Shonne Green could be running amok against the Eagles Defense.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (+3) 

Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are GOOD at home. Take them (giving the points) against the Browns that are anemic on offense.

Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (-6.5) 

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (+2.5)

The Ravens will want to take this. Playoff seeding at stake. But this is December and the Chargers peak around this time. Will be a good close game none the less. 

Outright Win: Ravens 
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-2.5) 

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Fransisco 49ers (-1) 

This will be a great game. The Steelers will want this to keep pace with the Ravens (assuming they win). The 49ers know that they can't afford to lose any game here on to protect their No.2 seed position. Looking at the match up, the Steelers can air it out (assuming Big Ben plays), and that is the Achilles's heel of the 49ers defense. And the Steelers D is no slouch against the run. Need I say more?

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (+1) 

Upset Special of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Bears kinda suck without Cutler and Forte on offense. And just got Tebow'ed. The Seahawks are not as daunting on the road as they are on the road. Still, I think the Seahawks have enough offense to score more than the Bears can. Unless, of course Devin Hester has his way.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+3.5) 

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+14)

The Packers are getting to play Kyle Orton (if he's healthy) for the second time this year, this time for the Chiefs. I have no doubt in my mind that the Packers should win this one. Only concern: hope they come out as healthy as they go into this game.

As much as I want the Packers to go for perfection, the thought that one hit could derail the whole season makes me cringe. All I can do is wait and see what happens.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)

My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-14) over CHIEFS
Patriots (-6) over BRONCOS
TEXANS (-6.5) over Panthers
Titans (-7) over COLTS
DOLPHINS (-2) over Bills

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 11-5

v/s the Spread Record: 7-9

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 144-64
v/s the Spread Record: 105-89-8

5 STAR Picks:
Overall Record: 38-30-1

* Odds as per "" on 12/14/2011

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