Wednesday, December 22, 2010

NFL 2010: Week 16 Picks

Carolina Panthers (+15) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The line for this game can just not be high enough. Only thing holding it this low is that Troy Palamalu might not play and he is THAT important to the Steelers team. Even without him, if the Steelers should cover this if they really want to be considered contenders this season.
Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-15)

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Arizona Cardinals
This is one of those inconsequential games of Week 16. Still, the Cowboys would like to pad up their season record. More pride at stake for the Cowboys here.
Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-7)

Washington Redskins (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
As hard as it is to believe, the Redskins seem better with Rex Grossman at QB than with McNaab. Here again, the Jaguars are facing a must-win situation and that trumps the new QB jolt to a team.
Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (-7)

Detroit Lions (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins would really love to play all their games on the road. That seems to give them their best chance to win. The Lions may not be with their best option at QB. Still they are gritty enough on defense to hang with the big boys. And just might pull off their third win in a row.
Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (+3.5)

San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at St Louis Rams
How in the world are the 49ers in position to make the playoffs? NFC West! yuck! Just going with the home team here without much analysis.
Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (-2.5)

Seattle Seahawks (+6) at Tampa Bay Bucs
How in the world are the Seahawks in a position to win out to make the playoffs? NFC West, again! yuck! And these Seahawks on the road? yuck! yuck!
Outright Win: Bucs
v/s the Spread: Bucs (-6)

Tennessee Titans (+5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are formidable at home. At least, formidable enough to take care of business against this flaky Titans team. Matt Cassel will be healthier than last week; which only helps.
Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-5)

NY Jets (+1) at Chicago Bears
The Bears have clinched the NFC North. But they still have the bye week in the playoffs to play for. The Jets might be just a little bit more motivated though as they have not even clinched a playoff spot yet. Also, they are a better team on the road than their new home.
Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (+1)

New England Patriots (-8.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots could have clinched the No.1 seed by the time this game is played. Even if that happens, they are going to play hard. Because that's the Patriot way.
Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-8.5)

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
The AFC North rivalries are arguably the most evenly fought games of all other divisional rivalries. The Browns will give the Ravens a run for their money.
Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-3.5)

Houston Texans (-3) at Denver Broncos
Tim Tebow gave the Broncos a shot in the arm, which lasted one whole half against the Raiders last week. Will he have enough to carry that broken team to victory? Seriously doubt it.
Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-3)

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Another one of those must-win teams (Chargers) against a team with nothing to play for (Bengals). Add to it the impeccable December record for the Rivers-Turner combo.
Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-7.5)

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Oakland Raiders
The Colts have their playoff destiny in their own hands. They win out, they are in. But this is going to be more than a stern test for them against he Raiders on the road. The Raiders are capable of running the ball and generating some serious pass rush. Just the things that are effective against this Colts team.
Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+3)

Minnesota Vikings (+14.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
No Favre! Mike Vick against that slow and old Vikings defense. Enough said.
Outright Win: Eagles
v/s the Spread: Eagles (-14.5)

Upset Special of the Week

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The NFC South has such a good record, in part, because they all get to play the NFC West teams. And now this game will go a long way in determining who will win this division. The Falcons are on a long winning streak and that is bound to break sometime. Why not against these Saints?
Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (+2.5)

Homer Pick of the Week

NY Giants (+3) at Green Bay Packers
For the Packers, the playoffs start right NOW. Their next two games are against he Giants and then against the Bears; both at home. They win out, they are in the playoffs. Not the ideal situation one would like, but hey, they carry their playoff destiny in their own hands; what more could you ask.

The Giants may be a little flustered after blowing a 21 point lead against the Eagles last week in the last 8 minutes of the game. Their aim in preparation this week would be to come back from that shock and get back to their winning ways. Not going to be easy against the Packers, especially with Aaron Rodgers playing.

The Packers passing game is a big time mis-match against the weak secondary of the Giants. So the only hope for the Giants to hold off the Packers passing game is to constantly get the pass rush to Rodgers. The Packers O line had a good game against the Patriots overall, and would want to carry that same level into this game. This is where the game will be won or lost. The Packers defense will also want to keep the Giants run game in check, as that is another area where they can get beat by these Giants.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-3)

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 8-8
v/s the Spread Record: 6-7

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 140-84
v/s the Spread Record: 104-105-8
Upset Picks Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 7-8
v/s the Spread Record: 11-4

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