Wednesday, December 15, 2010

NFL 2010: Week 15 Picks

San Francisco 49ers (+9) at San Diego Chargers
Must win for the Chargers. Alex Smith starts for the 49ers after a big win against the Seahawks. How is this not a game where the 49ers are blown out to sink what little hopes they had of salvaging the season?
Outright Win:  Chargers 
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-9)
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals cannot be trusted to win close games, even at home. The Browns do just that. Keep games close. And if Mccoy can start for the Browns, they sure should get this.
Outright Win: Browns 
v/s the Spread: Browns (+1.5)

Washington Redskins (+6) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys were impressive in their loss against the Eagles. The Redskins should be cake walk when compared to that.
Outright Win: Cowboys  
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-6)

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) at Indianapolis Colts
If the Colts lose this game, they have an incredibly uphill path to the playoffs here on. But I don't think they cover the spread here.
Outright Win: Colts 
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+5)

Kansas City Chiefs at St Louis Rams (NL)
There's no line on this game. It is hard to imagine that questions about the health of Matt Cassel can cause so much of an issue in the heads of odd makers. Whatever the case, the Rams are a tough out at home.
Outright Win: Rams 
v/s the Spread: n/a

Houston Texans (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans
This turns out to be a meaningless AFC South battle this week. Both teams spiraling downwards. Both the coaches on the hot seat. The Texans at least seem to be playing hard for their coach.
Outright Win: Texans 
v/s the Spread: Texans (+1.5)

Detroit Lions (+6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coming off a big win over the Packers, the Lions have their work cut out against a very beatable Bucs team. But with the Lion's pathetic road record and the fact that the Bucs somehow manage to beat sub .500 teams, its hard to see the Lions win here.
Outright Win: Bucs
v/s the Spread: Lions (+6)

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals managed to win last weak with Skelton as their QB. But that said more about the mess the Broncos were in than what the Cardinals were made of. In spite of the Panthers' incentive to not win, they will not be able to give up on the opportunity to take a win here.
Outright Win: Panthers
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-2.5)

New Orleans Saints (+1) at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have a serious problem in closing out games. They managed to get it done against the Texans, but not sure if they can continue to live on the edge.
Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (+1)

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at NY Giants
The Giants have enough weapons on their D line to keep Vick in check. The key for a Giants win here will be how effectively they can run against the Eagles Defense, which is not that hard.
Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-3)

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Trap game for the Falcons here. The Seahawks will use their Jedi tricks on the Falcons, with the help of a couple Special Teams touch downs and other weird stuff. Don't also forget about their 12th man. Plus, they need this game real bad to stay in the NFC West Title hunt.
Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+6.5)

NY Jets (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets are now in serious jeopardy of falling out of the playoff map. Too bad they have a top 5 defense to play against this week, when they would like Sanchez to ease into his mid-season form.
Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Jets (+6)
Denver Broncos (+6.5) at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders would love to jump back into the AFC West Title conversation with a big win here.
Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-6.5)

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (NL)
"The Streak" might be over. But, as hard is it may be to believe, there is a chance Brett plays again Monday. It is an important game for the Bears, in terms of their playoff push. And no matter who plays at QB for the Vikings, the Bears will want this more.
Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: n/a

Upset Special of the Week

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at Miami Dolphins
There may not be a more regressed QB than Chad Henne in the league this season. To add to it, the Dolphins are at home, which, inexplicably, makes it harder for this team. The Bills under Fitzpatrick can really air it out and cause some probles here.
Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (+5.5)

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (NL)
As of today, there is a good chance that Aaron Rodgers does not play this game. Even if he is a go, the Packers have to not only topple this Patriots offense that is a juggernaut, but will also have to topple the Patriots 26-game home winning streak. I do not see that happening.

Also, a loss in this game for the Packers, combined with a Bears wins, eliminates the Packers from the NFC North title run this season. And to make the playoffs through the wild card spot, they will need a miraculous sequence of outcomes from other games to help them through. Bleak!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: n/a

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 13-3
v/s the Spread Record: 9-7

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 132-76
v/s the Spread Record: 98-98-8
Upset Picks Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 6-8
v/s the Spread Record: 10-4

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