Thursday, November 19, 2009

NFL 2009: Week 11 Picks

Dolphins (+3) at Panthers
With Ronnie Brown out for the season, the Dolphins will have a tough time running the wild cat through Ricky Williams. Maybe try out Pat White too. The Panthers meanwhile are surging, thanks to their two headed running attack of Williams and Stewart, and of course with Jake evading INTs.
My Pick: Panthers

Redskins (+11) at Cowboys
The Cowboys had their 4 game-win streak snapped at Lambeau. They possibly could start another win-streak with the Redskins and the Raiders coming up the next 2 weeks. But then comes December, which of late has been a tough time for the Cowboys to stack up wins.
My Pick: Cowboys

Browns (+3.5) at Lions
The QB situation of the Browns is ironically such a mess that you cannot call it a controversy. A controversy is when you are not sure which QB gives you the best chance to win. With the Browns, it is: who will be the less likely to cause a loss?
My Pick: Lions

Steelers (-10) at Chiefs
Palamalu is likely out this week. Still, the Steelers defense sans-Troy should be good enough to hold up the Chiefs offense.
My Pick: Steelers

Seahawks (+11) at Vikings
The Seahawks just added Julius Jones to their long injury list. While, unexpectedly, Favre seems to be showing no signs of slowing down as we go deeper into the season.
My Pick: Vikings

Falcons (+6.5) at Giants
Matt Ryan seems to be slumping a bit. The only other person who could have shared his load, Micheal "the burner" Turner is doubtful for this game with a high ankle sprain. The Giants must have used the bye to prepare for snapping this 4 game losing streak they are in. The word out is that they are practicing with a 6'6" rookie for red zone snaps to try re-create that Eli-Plax connection.
My Pick: Giants

Saints (-11.5) at Bucs
The Saints let the Rams get too close for comfort last week. If complacency had anything to do with it, which I think did, there will be none this week against the Bucs after last week's wake-up call.
My Pick: Saints

Bills (+9) at Jaguars
The Jaguars are one-dimensional on offense. But that is good enough against a team that just had its head coach fired. Add to it that they are going to start Fitzpatrick over Trent Edwards! What is the over/under in number of weeks before which TO's mouth causes the Bills to cut him? I say 3 weeks.
My Pick: Jaguars

Colts (-1) at Ravens
The Colts have had 3 weeks of football that they could have easily lost: but for the TD throw by Joseph Adai against the 49ers, the missed FG by the Texans at the waning seconds, and a failed 4th and 2 by the Patriots giving the Colts a short field to work with. In spite of the close games, its testament to Manning and the Colts' experience that they manage to pull it off. And that should continue against a slowing down Ravens team whose number the Colts have had of late.
My Pick: Colts

Cardinals (-9.5) at Rams
The Cardinals will be in trouble if they do not show that sense of urgency they sometimes lack, against these Rams, who gave the Saints a run for their money last week.
My Pick: Cardinals

Chargers (NL) at Broncos
It's official: The Broncos are slumping! And this week, with Orton likely out, they have a huge mountain to climb to try hold off the Chargers. This game could be the division-clincher for either team.
My Pick: Chargers

Bengals (-9.5) at Raiders
Benson is hurt? No problem, let's sign Larry Johnson. And the march continues.....
My Pick: Bengals

Jets (+10) at Patriots
I pity the Jets. All their thrash talking might come back to bite them this week. The Patriots are angry!! angry at the Jets for beating the m earlier this season. Angry at the world because they failed a 4th and 2 conversion to let the Colts win last week. Do not under-estimate Bill Belichik's ability to motivate his team with the "we against the world" routine.
My Pick: Patriots

Eagles (-3) at Bears
The Eagles have a potentially explosive offense that will be aided by the ailing Bears secondary. Also, this game is on prime-time (Sunday Night), where Cutler seems to try do too much throwing 11 of his 17 INTs in 3 prime-time games this year.
My Pick: Eagles

Titans (+4.5) at Texans
The Texans offense is definitely hampered by the absence of Owen Daniels. Still, they have a good enough defense to hold Chris Johnson and VY within reach. And of course there is Andre Johnson.
My Pick: Texans

49ers (+6.5) at Packers
We will see two similarly built 3-4 defenses face each other. On the offensive side, the story of the game will be the 2 2005 first round draft picks, Alex Smith (No1 overall) and Aaron Rodgers (No.24 overall) face each other for the first time. At the time of the draft, Rodgers felt he must have gone first overall, but at the moment, he finds himself in a better position than Alex Smith.
My Pick: Packers

Last Week: 10-5
Year to date: 101-43

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