Friday, September 25, 2009

NFL 2009: Week 3 Picks

Here's my review for Week 2

Hopefully order is restored this week after all the upsets last week. Here how I see it going down:

Redskins (-6) at Lions:
For all my talk of wishing no more upsets, my first pick is just that. So this is it, this is where the Lions snap their 572 game losing record (actually only 19 game losing streak - but it feels that long). But seriously, I do not see a better chance for the Lions for a while after this game, when the Redskins are struggling on offense. Matt Stafford has not been too bad despite what his numbers have shown. Most of his picks have been from trying to force things. But that was necessary against the Saints and the Vikings. To beat the Redskins, a more conservative approach should do the job.

My Pick: Lions (they definitely cover the spread)

Packers (-6.5) at Rams:
The Packers have too many problems to fix: their struggling O line, their depleted secondary due to injuries, absence of a running game. What better opponent to clean up those things than the Rams?
My Pick: Packers

49ers (+7.0) at Vikings:
This looks easy on paper, but based on the teams on the field this past 2 weeks, it is a toughie. Both teams like to run the ball more than pass. Vikings are usually good on run defense, but have struggled in that regard the last 2 weeks allowing 100+ yards rushing each game. The niners on the other hand have been stingy against the run allowing only about 58 yards a game. The wild card here is going to be Favre. If Peterson cannot make enough plays, the onus will be on Favre to make some plays downfield. I like the Vikings as of now, but I think the niners will cover the spread.
My pick: Vikings

Falcons (+4) at Patriots:
My money would be on Tom Brady and Bill Belichik coming back with a vengeance to get back to winning ways. But something makes me nervous about this pick.... a trap game??. I am going against my guts and picking against the Patriots here. Even though they have Wes Welker playing this week, which helps, the Pats D has to contain Matt Ryan and Mike Turner. It probably takes a week or 2 more for Brady to shake of his rust and get the Pats on track.
My Pick: Falcons

Titans (+1) at Jets:
The biggest question I have right now is: Are the Jets for real? Their defense sure feels that way. But how long can Mark Sanchez go without throwing his first pick and then some more. The Titans are going to have that extra drive since they find themselves in a 0-2 hole, but there is not a whole lot they can do about it, can they?
My pick: Jets

Chiefs (NL) at Eagles:
McNaab or no McNaab, the Eagles should take this easy. Watch out for Mike Vick on the field though. He is suiting up for the game for sure.
My Pick: Eagles

Giants (-6.5) at Bucs:
Eli and the Giants are comming of an impressive win at Cowboys Stadium. I don't see the Bucs stopping them this week.
My Pick: Giants

Browns (+13) at Ravens:
The Ravens seem scary good after the first 2 weeks. They may want to shore up their defense a little more to prepare for the long haul. But should have no problems against the Browns.
My Pick: Ravens

Jaguars (+3.5) at Texans:
The Jaguars are struggling at all fronts. While the Texans are as fickle as ever. Its anyone's guess which Texan team will show up this week. I think either way they should be able to handle the Jaguars at home.
My Pick: Texans

Saints (-6) at Bills:
For the first time the Saints defense will be tested this season, although Kevin Kolb torched them for some yards, they hung in there last week. I still think Drew Brees is on a roll and should carry the Saints over the Bills.
My Pick: Saints

Bears (-1) at Seahawks:
I wonder why the Bears are favored by only 1 against the Seahawks? It should be easy pickings especially with no Matt Hasselbeck. What is it that I don't know that the guys in Vegas know? Another trap spread??
My Pick: Bears

Steelers (-4) at Bengals:
This one is again not easy to pick as it looks. The Bengals are pretty good and should br 2-0 but for the fluke catch at the end of their game against the Broncos. The Steelers seem to be struggling with their running game and their secondary. But the Steelers have a 8 game winning streak against the Bengals. I am going to pick the snapping of that streak and a Bengals win.
My Pick: Bengals

Broncos (-1) at Raiders:
The Broncos are definitely not as good as their 2-0 record may paint them to be. But they did win 2 games. The Raiders on the other hand beat the Chiefs at Arrow Field (as bad as the Chiefs are, it is a tough thing to do) and almost handed the Chargers a loss in Week 1 but for a game winning drive from Philip Rivers. I think the Raiders running game and defense will be too much for the Broncos to handle.
My Pick: Raiders

Dolphins (+6) at Chargers:
The Dolphins are going to try run and control the clock against the Chargers, but without a potent passing game, you cannot beat a team which can throw the deep strike at anytime, as they learned against the Colts.
My Pick: Chargers

Colts (+1) at Cardinals:
This will be a great match up to watch. Manning and his passing game against Kurt Warner and his. The Cardinals are harder to beat at home and with Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston going against the likes of Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and....... who??
My Pick: Cardinals

Carolina (+9) at Cowboys:
Both Romo and Delhomme have to prove that they can play without making mistakes that will cost them the game. I think Romo can bounce back sooner than Delhomme, who has hit rock bottom.
My Pick: Cowboys

Last Week: 10-6
Year to date: 23-9

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