Thursday, November 18, 2010

NFL 2010: Week 11 Picks

Chicago Bears (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins
These pesky Bears keep racking up wins in spite of their poor O line and flaky offense, mainly because their defense and special teams keeps bailing them out. In fact, against the Vikings, their O line looked good and they surprisingly converted a bunch of 3rd downs. On the surface, Miami may seem to have a QB crisis. But, they might be better off under Tyler Thigpen than the inconsistent Chad Henne. Or they might just end up using theirwild cat on all downs.
Outright Win: Miami
v/s the Spread: Miami (-2.5)

Oakland Raiders (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' O line is plagued with injuries. Losing your left tackle, for most teams, is a season threatening setback. But for these Steelers it might just be a bump in the road if their defense can get back to early season form. But for now, the Raiders might ride their hot streak and give more than what the Steelers can swallow; good enough to cover the spread here.
Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+7)

Houston Texans (+7) at New York Jets
The Texans defense made the Jaguars look like a potent offense. A perfect match up for the Jets offense to awaken from that deep slumber they are in. Or are hte Jets not really that good?
Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-7)

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Ravens might be on the road. But road games don't get any easier than when you are facing the Panthers. Easy cover for the Ravens here. If they don't, it will be fair to question their legitimacy as contenders this season.
Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-10.5)

Washington Redskins (+7) at Tenessee Titans
McNaab will want to have a good game here to try instill some confidence into the Redskins fans, after signing that new multi-year contract. The Titans would like to have a big game out of Moss, to give their fans some fodder to chew on after his signing. The chances of the latter happening is more likely, in my opinion.
Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7)

Detroit Lions (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys seemed to have got their mojo back last week. Don't let that mirage fool you. They are going to have their hands full aginst the Lions. But I don't see the Lions, on the road, come out of this with a win.
Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Lions (+6.5)

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Another mirage here, in the form of the Jaguars offense. This week, the Browns are especially stingy against the run and the Jaguars will have to put their faith in the hands of Gerrard. More times than not, it's not going to be a pretty sight.
Outright Win: Browns
v/s the Spread: Browns (+1.5)

Arizona Cardinals (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are good at home. The Cardinals are do I put this diplomatically?... just not good.
Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-8)

Seattle Seahawks (+11.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Seahawks are on the road against the surging Saints. Not looking good for the Seahawks. Moreover, the Saints are going to be a little healthier after the bye week. Still, it may take another week or two for them to get back into their 2009 Saints stride.
Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-11.5)

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at St Louis Rams
The Falcons are coming of that emotional thursday night win over the ravens. This has "let down game" written all over it. The same home/away dynamics holds good for both these teams.
Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (+3)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are favored in this? How? The scrappy Bucs will take advantage of any slip ups by the 49ers. Can the 49ers play an error free game for once?
Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

Indianapolis Colts (+3) at New England Patriots 
One of the two big rivalry games of the week. Both teams are not perfect. But, at least I know the names of the bunch of guys Brady will be throwing to.
Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-3)

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles will want to re-affirm that tehy are a legit force in the NFC. But, to what extent will a win over the phony Giants do in that regard? Not much in my books.
Outright Win: Eagles
v/s the Spread: Eagles (-3)

Denver Broncos (+10) at San Diego Chargers
The Broncos hammered the Chiefs at home last week. They would want a similar jump start against the Chargers. The Chargers, on the other hand, finally will have some of their WRs back on the field. About time Rivers got some help.
Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+10)

Upset Special of the Week

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at Cincinatti Bengals
I keep mentioning almost every week: the Bengals are not good. The bills are coming off their first win of the season. I like how their secondary matches up against the Bengals passing game.
Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (+5.5)

Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
This could be the very last time that the Packers get a shot at beating up on Favre. The very last shot Aaron rodgers might get to beat his predecessor. The Packers might have a better record, and maybe the better team. But this game is no gimme for the Packers. Playing in the loud Metrodome, and with Bulaga starting at RT for the Packers, they will look to avoiding those false starts. And need I mention how Favre is capable of surprising people with an epic performance when least expected? Especially given the fact that it is potentially his final grudge match against teh Packers.
Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-3)

Last Week:
Outright Win Record: 7-7
v/s the Spread Record: 6-7-1

Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 84-60
v/s the Spread Record: 69-66-7

Upset Picks Year to Date:
Outright Win Record: 4-6
v/s the Spread Record: 7-3

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