Thursday, December 31, 2009

NFL 2009: Week 17 Picks

How fitting that my last post of the decade is the one with my picks for the final week of this 2009 NFL season? Also introducing picks with spreads here:

Note: Picks subject to change this week based on changing lines and information about resting starters info from teams as we get closer to game-time.

Colts (+9) at Bills
The Colts are going to start their regulars just to keep their starting streak records in tact and reign them in as soon as they can. Also, they would rather lose this game than be in a situation where they go 1-15 and have a Championship run and have that infamous Jets game as their only loss tarnishing their otherwise perfect season.
Without Spread: Bills
With Spread: Bills (-9)

Jaguars (+1.5) at Browns
The Jaguars will want this game bad to have a strong finish to save their coach's job. The Browns will also want to win this to potentially save Mangini's job.
Without Spread: Jaguars
With Spread: Jaguars (1.5)

Eagles (+3) at Cowboys
This shapes up to be one of those hard fought NFC East rivalry games, only, the stakes are way higher. They may be playing not only for the NFC East Division title, but possibly for the No.2 seed and a first round bye.
Without Spread: Cowboys
With Spread: Eagles (+3)

Bears (-3) at Lions
The Bears will come with a lot of energy into this game following their OT win over Vikings on Monday. If Cutler can avoid throwing to the opponent Jerseys, the Bears can take advantage of the weak Lions' secondary and break this open. With Culpeper the starter for the Lions, the Bears should not have too much of a problem in stopping the Lions offense.
Without Spread: Bears
With Spread: Bears (-3)

Patriots (+8) at Texans
This is an obvious trap game. The Patriots have the No.3 seed at stake here. If they lose and the Bengals win, they will be stuck with the No.4 seed. the Texans may have a potent passing offense, good enough to exploit the Patriots secondary,. But Belichik will play through and hard with his starters, trying to enter the playoffs with a winning streak.
Without Spread: Patriots
With Spread: Patriots (+8)

Steelers (-3) at Dolphins
The Steelers and the Dolphins need to win this game to have any chance of making the playoffs. Plus they will need some extra help, with the Steelers needing lesser help than the fins. Palamalu might start this game for the Steelers, right away making their secondary a strength than the liability it has been the last few weeks.
Without Spread: Steelers
With Spread: Steelers (-3)

Giants (+9) at Vikings
The Giants have been eliminated from playoff contention. But they will want to get some redemption after last weeks no-show. They will play hard, while the Vikes will try passing the heck out of the ball to figure out their offensive identity.
Without Spread: Vikings
With Spread: Giants (+9)

Bengals (+10) at Jets
The NFL scheduled this game to be televised nationally (Sunday Night Football), expecting this to be a hardly fought game for the Jets to fight for their playoff chances (They win, they are in). But, if the Patriots win their game earlier in the game, the Bengals will have nothing to play for, and this game will be nothing more than a sequel to the Jets - Colts game from week 16 - a total charade.
Without Spread: Jets
With Spread: Bengals (+10)

49ers (-7) at Rams
The 49ers will be playing hard to build some momentum they can carry over to next season. the Rams will be in a mood to throw away this game to clinch the No.1 pick in the 2010 NFL draft.
Without Spread: 49ers
With Spread: 49ers (-7)

Falcons (-2.5) at Bucs
The Falcons have never had consecutive winning seasons ever in the history of their existence. They will face a tough TB team that has won 2 in a row and a coach, Raheem Morris, coaching for his job.
Without Spread: Falcons
With Spread: Bucs (+2.5)

Packers (+3) at Cardinals
This might be a game where both teams may end up not playing their starters beyond the 2nd quarter. First, both teams are not going to gain much with a win here (unless the Cardinals are up for the 2nd seed with Vikes loss and Eagles loss). And if these 2 are going to have a rematch in the playoffs the very next week, they both will not want to show their hands and keep the game plan very vanilla.
Without Spread: Packers (toss up)
With Spread: Packers (+3)

Chiefs (+13) at Broncos
The Broncos are also one of those teams that apart from winning, need some other help too, to make the playoffs. They sure will win, but the Chiefs will play hard and keep it closer than the spread indicates.
Without Spread: Broncos
With Spread: Chiefs (+13)

Ravens (-11) at Raiders
The Ravens, win, they make the cut. And they should be able to make it, given that they play the Raiders. But the guys in Silver and Black have wins over the Steelers and Bengals (other AFC opponents). So expect this to be close.
Without Spread: Ravens
With Spread: Raiders (+11)

Redskins (+4) at Chargers
The Redskins had two bad losses the past two weeks against the Cowboys and Eagles. Don't expect them to inflict much damage even if its going to be against the Chargers second tier team.
Without Spread: Chargers
With Spread: Chargers (+4)

Titans (-4) at Seahawks
People might think both these teams do not have much to play for. While, that might be true for the Seahawks, the Titans will try to let Chris Johnson run amok to try break all possible single season yardage records.
Without Spread: Titans
With Spread: Titans (-4)

Panthers (NL) at Saints
The Saints will play hard in the first couple quarters and try to open up a lead. Even if they don't, they will rest enough starters in the second half.
Without Spread: Saints

Record (without spread)
Last Week: 9-7
Year to date: 166-73

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