LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 5

Hanging by a thread here... at least I'm not regressing... allegedly like the Colts were supposed to.

Here are the Week 5 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) over Buffalo Bills
The Browns are on fire. Well.... relative to way they were (0-2) and considering their spark plugs have been Brian Hoyer and Josh Gordon; yep, they are on fire. The Bills on the road? No thank you!

Pick 2: New England Patriots (+2) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Tom Brady vs Andy Dalton! Yeah... i know my sorry ass packers (at least for that week) lost to this Bengals group on the road. Not happening against Brady and his unheralded group of plucky unrestricted free agents.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I'm going to ride these Seahawks on the road 'less than a FG' lines. Let down game for the Colts comes a week later than everyone expected.

Pick 4: Denver Broncos (-7.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Broncos offense can't be run any more efficiently than how Peyton Manning is doing it at the moment. Easy cover freight train!

Pick 5: San Diego Chargers (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Can't believe this line is so low. Tyrell Pryor might start. But he's just a glorified fantasy star. Not someone that can beat even an average NFL team. Plus, these Chargers might be more than half decent. Well, at least on offense they are.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* FALCONS (-9.5) over Jets: Must win game for the Falcons at home against a rookie QB.

* PACKERS (-7) over Lions: Same logic as for the Falcons. And oh yeah, the Lions haven't won at Lambeau since 1991.

* Saints (PK) over BEARS: The Saints might in fact be the best team in teh NFC (sorry Seattle). We'll know in a few weeks.

* RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars: I have to pick against the Jaguars. Even if it means I'm betting on Sam Bradford! Yikes!!!!

* Panthers (-2) over CARDINALS: Sneaky good Panthers. Watch out for them along with the Titans (when Locker is back) to be the sneaky good surprises this year.

Contest Record last week: 3-1-1 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 11-8-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 10-10

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 4

Another mediocre 3-2 week for me. Hey, at least it's not getting worse... not yet anyways!

Here are the Week 4 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns did the opposite of what I thought they would do. They rallied together for a statement win. The statement being: "Management might want us to tank. But we are going to fight!". Well... that rally has run it's course. They usually don't last that long. Especially if you face a solid solid team like the Bengals.

Pick 2: Baltimore Ravens (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Ravens offense is going to have that high scoring aberration game against that sorry Bills defense.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
I know the Seahawks are on the road. And the Texans are not an easy out. But the Seahwaks defense should keep this game close. And there are very few QBs in this league that I trust more in close games than Russel Wilson.

Pick 4: DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles
Peyton Manning is going to carve up that Eagles D..... yep... the Eagles have a D... i know it is hard to notice... unless of course they play Alex Smith. Even he was able to find Donnie Avery for large chunks of yards. Good Lord! Pay your mortgage, folks!

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over New York Jets
Yes. I'm still on the Titans' D train. They are going to feast on the rookie QB, who just played one of the worst defenses in the league (Bills). Welcome to the NFL moment for the rook!

ON THE BUBBLE:

* RAMS (+3) over 49ers: I expect this division game to be close and decided by a FG or less. Taking the home team that is given 3 points. duh! Plus, this is the Thursday Night game. Pay your mortgage with the under!

* Colts (-7.5) over  JAGUARS: The Colts will have to play really really bad to blow this one. This Jaguars team might get some garbage points to keep this close. But I expect a double digits Colts win.

* CHIEFS (-4) over Giants: Yep, I'm thinking the Giants are going to start 0-4. I know that old narrative of these cornered Giants. But I don't see anything in this team that suggests they have any semblance of fight left.

* Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCS: The Bucs are benching Josh Freeman. This is probably going to help them couple weeks down the line. But throwing that Glennon kid to the wolves not going to be pretty this week. The Cardinals have their own woes, but they should be alright this week.

* Dolphins (+6.5) over SAINTS: The Dolphins are for real? Let's see them prove it in prime time on MNF!

Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 8-7

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 7-8

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 3

Making some progress here. I'm probably going to be out of contention if I don't get a few 5-0 weeks now.

Here are the Week 3 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns
The Browns just traded away their best player on offense. Benched their QB for Bryan Hoyer (And yeah, sugar coat it all you want, but he was benched!). The players are either going to pull together and play hard or, do just the opposite - crumble from the feeling that the management brass has given up on the year. I'm betting the later. The Vikings have their own QB controversy brewing, but may take a couple weeks before that's going to pop it's ugly head.

Pick 2: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS 
Yep. My homer pick. I think the Packers will win this game on the road. They are too good a team to start 1-2. Bengals are going to be a tough out though. Hoping the Packers O line can hold it's own against that dreaded Bengal's D-Line. Fingers crossed!

Pick 3: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots are giving only 7 points at home against teh 0-2 Bucs? Only 7 freaking points?!?! As Jason Whitlock would say ..... "Y'all ready to pay your mortgages?". And oh, the Gronk might be back too.

Pick 4: Indianapolis Colts (+10) over the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Nope. This ain't a hater pick. I just think with Trent Richardson now carrying the rock for the Colts, they should be able to cover this easy. Still expect the 49ers to win though.

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) over San Diego Chargers
I'm riding the Titans' D-Train. They seem to be legit. Like them a lot this game, especially at home.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Lions (+2) over REDSKINS: Not sure the Redskins can beat anyone with that Defense.

* Jaguars (+19) over SEAHAWKS: I know! I'm probably the only one that's picking the Jags to cover. I just think 19 points are too much to leave on the table.

* SAINTS (-7) over Cardinals: The Saints D seems under rated. They might be sneaky good. Like the year they won the Super Bowl. Well... good enough to beat Carson Palmer and his hobbled offense anyway.

* COWBOYS (-4) over Rams: Expect this to be a shoot out. Cowboys gonna get this at home.

* Bears (-2.5) over STEELERS: Just picking against the Steelers here. Can't see them beating an average team, let alone a good Bears team.

And yeah... it feels like a " lotta favorites cover" kinda week!


Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 5-5

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 3-7

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 2

Ok, so that was not a hot start for me. Not by a long shot. Went just 2-3 last week. The silver lining is that two of the lines I didn't cover were because of: (1) a dumb late hit penalty by Tampa Bay and (2) a dumb pick 6 by Eli.

So, I'm going to delude myself to thinking I'm onto something here. Here are the Week 2 SuperContest picks.

On to my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: New York Jets (+11.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are a little beat up at WR and RB (Amendola and Vereen are mostly out). Rookie WRs are going to have growing pains. Divisional games are bound to be close more often than not. The Jets D might be legit too. I don't believe the Jets will win this game, but 11.5 is too many points to leave on the table.

Pick 2: CHICAGO BEARS (-6) over Minnesota Vikings
Coach Trestman has this offense humming. The O line looked surprisingly good. Cutler was sharp (except for one throw). Peanut Tillman in the secondary is still that good ol' ball hawk we know him to be. The Vikings looked awful against the Lions. With the Lions loading up defenders in the box, Ponder still couldn't throw much. Recipe for disaster if he can't even throw enough to keep defenses honest and give Adrian Peterson a chance to do his thing.

Pick 3: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) over San Francisco 49ers 
The Seahawks at home. Enough said!
........... And one more thing......... Clearly the Game of the Week! Can't wait!

Pick 4: Carolina Panthers (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Panthers held their own on D against the Seahawks. EJ manual is not going to be any better than Russell Wilson. And the Bills Defense is not as scary as the Seahawks Defense.

Pick 5: Tennessee Titans (+9) over HOUSTON TEXANS
The Titans Defense looked stout. This game will tell me if that was more the ineptitude of the Steelers' offense, or if the Titans indeed are that good. I'm betting on the later.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Once again leaving out my homer pick: PACKERS (-7.5) over Redskins. Just about 4.5 points more than what I'm comfortable with, given the Redskins could pile up garbage points.

* Jaguars (+5.5) over RAIDERS: I'm taking the points in this bottom feeder match up. Pretty confident neither of these two can win a game by over 5 points. Against anybody!

* Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS: The Bucs had a stinker last week. Not putting this in my top 5, because I want to see if the Bucs have a strong rebound. Or they might just be THAT bad!?!

* Lions (-1.5) over CARDINALS: The Lions just might be good. Definitely better than the Cardinals on paper. But can they avoid those dumb plays and put it together?

* Broncos (-4.5) over NY GIANTS: I'm taking Peyton Manning in this match up. But this also has some Giants' "rebound from a stinker" potential.


Contest Record last week: 2-3 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 2-3

"ON THE BUBBE" Record Year-to-date: 1-4

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 1

I'm back! After a long (really really long) hiatus, I'm back!

Thinking of easing myself into writing here again; and not throw myself back to the wolves right away. Let's see how it goes.

Instead of doing the weekly game-by-game picks this season (which almost everyone with access to a computer and the internet does these days), I'm going to try simulate making my Vegas Hilton SuperContest picks here. It is my experiment to see how I'd fare in the real contest and maybe enter it someday (soon... next year.. maybe!).

Also going to drop a few lines with the picks, trying to explain the reasoning behind my picks.

I will be using the odds given by LVH (released every Wednesday around 5PM). You can find them here.

Here are my Week 1 Picks (Home team in CAPS):

Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

Season opener at home for the Saints; they usually win those in the Superdome. Add to it that it's going to double up as a Sean Payton's welcome back party. Pretty strong feeling the Saints got this. The clincher for me is that, the probable regression to the mean for the Falcons (from last year's improbable good luck) is going to catch up to them.

Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are going to be bad. And that could easily be an understatement. The Buccaneers are expected to have an elite defense (especially their secondary) this year. Only if Josh Freeman from the first half of last season shows up, I'm sure I got this too. The under on this game will be a good bet too.

Pick 3: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It's week 1. I'm going to try feast on some tentative lines on games involving certain teams the wise guys (I think) do not seem to have a feel about yet. The Chiefs are one of them. I expect them to be good this year with new head coach Andy Reid and new QB Alex Smith. Weapons like a healthy Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe don't hurt. And did I mention they play the Jaguars this week?

Pick 4: NY Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Giants, of late, have had the Cowboys' number at Jerry World. I'm thinking that trend continues. The Cowboys have a talented roster. No question. But how much confidence can a Bill Callahan co-ordinated offense and a Monte Kiffin co-ordinated defense instill in you?    

Pick 5: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) over Miami Dolphins

The Browns are one of those teams that's expected to be taking a big step forward this year. Weeden has been good this pre-season (for whatever that's worth). Solid Defense coupled with Norv "the offensive co-ordinator" Turner's offense is gonna keep them in most games they play. The Dolphins are another team that's supposedly on an uptick; but I ain't buying that.


On the bubble:

* Was hard for me to leave out my homer pick, the Packers (+4.5) over the Niners. I just can't pick them Packers until I see their defense show some signs of containing the Niners with my own eyes, let alone stop them.

* The Seahawks (-3.5) over the Panthers seems like an easy pick on the surface. But I'm nervous to pick the Seahawks on the road. Maybe a few wins under their belt on the road early this season, and I might start riding them in this contest. Already plan on riding them at home a lot.

* Vikings (+5.5) over the Lions. Thinking.... Adrian Peterson on turf vs that Lions run D? .... Maybe I should have put this as one of my 5 supercontest picks!

* Patriots (-9.5) over the Bills. I need to see how explosive the Patriots offense will be this year with their new WRs and without their alleged felon TE.

* I also overcame the temptation to pick against the Raiders, even though they are given 9.5 points here. The Colts are another team that's expected to regress to the mean (along with the Falcons). I want to wait a week or two before involving these two teams in my final picks.


Contest Record last week: 0-0
Contest Record Year-to-date: 0-0

NFL 2011: Week 16 Picks

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

The Colts are not win-less no more. But Colt fans are concerned they may end up with a better record than the Vikings or the Rams. Not to worry Colts fans! Your No.1 pick is safe. The Texans had a let down loss last week after winning their division. Not happening this week. 

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-6.5)


Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

The Raiders are in a free fall right now. Luckily for them, they get to play the Chiefs a week after the Chiefs beat the then undefeated Packers. Now this game has let down written all over it for the Chiefs. 

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+2.5)
  

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3)


The Broncos under Tebow have been solid on the road. I expect them to keep that streak going against the Bills who have suddenly turned putrid. A win by the Broncos here, will pretty much seal the AFC West. Sorry, Chargers and Raiders!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (-3)
  

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-7)


The Jaguars are bad. On the road, they are horrible. If the Titans can handle MJD, this game will not even be close.  

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7) 


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)

The Dolphins have been hot of late. But not as hot as the Patriots. Especially coming of their win over Tebow...on the road. But I do see back door cover potential here.


Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+10)  


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Colt McCoy may not play this week. Not that it matters. It is the 'alternate game' for the Ravens where they play well and once again rope everyone into believing what a playoff threat they are to the entire league. Seen this act before.  

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-13) 


New York Giants at New York Jets (-3)

IMO.. too much of hype given to this game. It is all just because these are both teams from New York (although they play in Jersey... go figure!). How is this not the game where Eli plays brilliantly to keep the Giants playoffs hopes alive.

Outright Win: Gaints 
v/s the Spread: Giatns (+3) 


Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

The Redskins should be able to take advantage of that Minnesota secondary to pull this one off, in spite of Rex Grossman. Unless he has one of his bad Rex days... not ruling that off.

Outright Win: Redskins
v/s the Spread: Redskins (-6.5) 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

The Bucs are horrible. enough said.

Outright Win: Panthers 
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-7.5) 


San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

This has the makings of a great game. Especially if the Broncos lose their early game. I am not going to pick against the chargers in December, though.

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (+2.5)  


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2)

Nice win for the 49ers on Monday Night. But this game, at Seattle, has tremendous 'let down' potential.

Outright Win: Seahwaks 
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+2) 


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

The Cowboys, in spite of their record, have played extremely well over the last few weeks. The Eagles have been hot the lost couple weeks. Something's gotta give here. I say it is the Eagles.

Outright Win: Cowboys 
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-1.5) 


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Great NFC South showdown. Saints will expose the poser Falcons at home.

Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7) 



Upset Special of the Week


Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

The Cardinals are good. But how good will they be on the road is the question. Both these teams have their playoff hopes alive at this point. And they will both play hard. I like the Cardinals here though, looking at the way they have played the last few weeks.


Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+4)  


Homer Pick of the Week


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Not perfect no more! No problem! We get to play the Forte-less Bears with Josh McCown as their QB? At Lambeau! I'll take that any day of the week!

But for the long haul, the Packers need to do something about their defense. And try get their O line healthy for the playoffs.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

SEAHAWKS (+2) over 49ers
Raiders (+2.5) over CHIEFS
Texans (-6.5) over COLTS
Broncos (-3) over BILLS
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Bucs


Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-8

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 153-71
v/s the Spread Record: 113-97-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 40-33-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 12/21/2011

NFL 2011: Week 15 Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11)

The Falcons don't need added advantage of a shorter week to beat the Jaguars. They get it anyways. Still, this will be a closer game than people think. The Jaguars have a sneaky good defense and MJD has been on a roll of late.


Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+11) 





Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) 




Must-win game for the Cowboys? You think? Lucky for them, they get a free-falling Buccaneers team. A Cowboys win here might mean the firing of Raheem Morris as the Head Coach of the Bucs. And I think the writing is on the wall. Unless of course the Cowboys find a way to lose again, as they do every December.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-7) 




Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-7)


 The Giants are one of those teams that I would hate to face in the playoffs (Steelers and Patriots are the others). But the Giants also have the penchant, like the Ravens, to play down (or up) to the level of their opponents. Not happening this week. I can't see Rex Grossman having three good weeks in a row. Sorry. Still it will be a close game.

Outright Win: Giants 
v/s the Spread: Redskins (+7) 




New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (+7)


The Saints are on the road again. But this time its the Vikings. If Adrian Peterson does not play, there is no way the Viking QBs play a flawless game. A couple turnovers by the Vikings will play into the strength of this Saints defense.

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7) 





Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-6.5) 

The Texans are rolling with TJ Yates. Well, not exactly rolling, but, doing just enough to win. This week, the Panthers bring home a bad run defense, playing right into the strength of the Texans. Count another win for the Texans, who might end up winning a first round bye.



Outright Win: Texans 
v/s the Spread: Texans (-6.5) 




Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Titans have lost their division, but have an outside chance of making the playoffs through the wild card route (far fetched as it may be). No way are they giving the Colts their first win. And I will be kicking myself if the Colts manage to get the back door cover in this game too.


Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7) 




Cincinnati Bengals at St Louis Rams (+6.5)

The Rams are a mess. Enuf said.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-6.5) 



Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2)

The Bills are also a mess. And the Dolphins will be playing hard for their new/interim coach.


Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 




Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (+1.5)

The Raiders have not been the same since that Rolando McLain arrest. Then again, this is their first game at home since that incident. But I do not think it will make a difference.


Outright Win: Lions 
v/s the Spread: Lions (-1.5) 




New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+6)

The Patriots against Tebow? What a ratings bonanza for the NFL? On paper, it seems ripe for an interesting match up. Tebow vs the bad Pats pass defense. The Patriots offense vs the solid Denver defense. But let's be real folks! No way Tom Brady is getting Tebow'ed. I don't even think Tebow covers here.


Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-6) 




New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Eagles still have an outside shot at the playoffs. I'm not kidding. But that hope will be lost this week. The Jets should be able to pull this win, just like they have been doing the past few weeks. Also, Shonne Green could be running amok against the Eagles Defense.


Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (+3) 




Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are GOOD at home. Take them (giving the points) against the Browns that are anemic on offense.

 
Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (-6.5) 




Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (+2.5)

The Ravens will want to take this. Playoff seeding at stake. But this is December and the Chargers peak around this time. Will be a good close game none the less. 


Outright Win: Ravens 
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-2.5) 






Pittsburgh Steelers at San Fransisco 49ers (-1) 

This will be a great game. The Steelers will want this to keep pace with the Ravens (assuming they win). The 49ers know that they can't afford to lose any game here on to protect their No.2 seed position. Looking at the match up, the Steelers can air it out (assuming Big Ben plays), and that is the Achilles's heel of the 49ers defense. And the Steelers D is no slouch against the run. Need I say more?

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (+1) 






Upset Special of the Week


Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Bears kinda suck without Cutler and Forte on offense. And just got Tebow'ed. The Seahawks are not as daunting on the road as they are on the road. Still, I think the Seahawks have enough offense to score more than the Bears can. Unless, of course Devin Hester has his way.


Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+3.5) 




Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+14)

The Packers are getting to play Kyle Orton (if he's healthy) for the second time this year, this time for the Chiefs. I have no doubt in my mind that the Packers should win this one. Only concern: hope they come out as healthy as they go into this game.

As much as I want the Packers to go for perfection, the thought that one hit could derail the whole season makes me cringe. All I can do is wait and see what happens.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-14) over CHIEFS
Patriots (-6) over BRONCOS
TEXANS (-6.5) over Panthers
Titans (-7) over COLTS
DOLPHINS (-2) over Bills

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 11-5

v/s the Spread Record: 7-9

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 144-64
v/s the Spread Record: 105-89-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 38-30-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 12/14/2011

NFL 2011: Week 14 Picks

12-0! Phew!!

NFC North Champs! Go Pack Go!

on to the picks....


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

The Browns are going to get clobbered here. At Pitt, on a short week, with the Steelers rolling right now. Odds are stacked against you Cleveland. The Steelers are getting into that playoff gear and they scare me as a Packer fan.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-14)

Rest of the picks... later this week.....

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-16.5)

The Ravens will have to win to stay ahead of the Steelers in their division race. If that was not motivation enough, they face the Colts!

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-16.5)


Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

TJ Yates has been impressive in his last two outings (for a rookie). But that streak of winning with backup QBs ends for the Texans here. The Bengals may not be a dominant team at home, but they might be just good enough to win this and hang around in the AFC North race.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-3)


Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-9)

The Jets have not been impressive at all in their last few games, but have managed to win a few in unenviable fashion to keep their playoff hopes high. I think that trend continues here. Hello Palko!

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-9)


Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Mike Vick might be back, and the Eagles maybe starting to get healthy. But I do not see how the Eagles stop the Dolphins running game. If the Dolphins can only contain Vick a little bit, they should be able to pull this off. And it helps that the Eagles are not that good after all.

Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-3)
 

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Patriots just suffered a backdoor cover against the Colts last week. They should have no problem covering this spread though. Even on the road at Washington.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-8)
 

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3)

The Panthers have been playing good of late on offense. Even if they turn this into a shoot out, I don't see them beating the Falcons. Expect Turner to have a monster game here. But then again, who knows what could happen in a divisional game.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-3)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2)

The Bucs are real bad.... and so are the Jaguars. But I trust the Jaguars defense, playing at home, and MJD will make that slight difference to take this snooze-fest.

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+2)


Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-10)

The Lions just have to have this game, if they have any hopes of making the playoffs. The Vikings will try stop their losing streak here. But I don't see the latter happening.

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-10)


St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10)

Seattle is at home. No Bradford. The rest of the Rams seem to have already given up on the season. Unless Stephen Jackson wills his team here, its hard to even see them cover.

Outright Win: Seahwaks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (-10)


San Francisco 49ers  at Arizona Cardinals (+4)

The 49ers just clinched their division last week. The Cardinals are also hot, all of a sudden, especially at home. This has upset/letdown game written all over it, doesn't it? This will be the toughest test for Harbaugh to see if he can keep the minds of his players in it.

Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (-4)


Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Tebow-mania continues! Not much threat to be expected from Caleb Hannie and Marion Barber. Only hope for Chicago here is for their defense to score or Devin Hester to return a kick or two all the way home!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (-3.5)


Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The Chargers have finally managed to pull together two good performances in a row. The Bills, coming into San Diego are in a funk of their own. I think the Chargers string another good game, but the Bills manage to keep it close and cover.

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Bills (+7)


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Classic NFC East showdown! Or so it would seem. I have a feeling this is going to be a blow out one way or the other. Law of averages would suggest, the Cowboys are due a win over the Giants at their new stadium. (Cowboys are 0-2). But my money is on the Giants to build off their momentum from last week's almost upset of the Packers.

Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (+3)



Upset Special of the Week

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

The Saints have been prolific on offense the last couple weeks. But now, they are on the road! Not the same comfort level for Brees and his receiving group away from the Super-dome. And Chris Johnson is heating up. I see the Titans pulling off an upset here. A close one, none-the-less.

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (+3.5) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11)

The Raiders are banged up. The Packers are 12-0! The Raiders haven't won in the state of Wisconsin... for ever. The Packers are 12-0! The Raiders will have to hope their defense can keep the Packers scoring under control. The Packers are 12-0!

Also a win here will extend the Packers winning streak to 19 games, in sole possession of the second longest winning streak in the history of the league.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-11)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

PACKERS (-11) over Raiders
Patriots (-8) over Redskins
JAGUARS (+2) over Bucs
Falcons (-3) over PANTHERS
DOLPHINS (-3) over Eagles

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 12-4
v/s the Spread Record: 9-7

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 133-59
v/s the Spread Record: 98-80-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 35-28-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 12/07/2011