LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 15

Week 15 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6) over St. Louis Rams

Pick 2: Seattle Seahawks (-7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Pick 3:  INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5.5) over Houston Texans

Pick 4: Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Pick 5: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* 49ers (-5.5) over BUCCANEERS

* Packers (+7.5) over COWBOYS

* Jets (+11) over PANTHERS

* Bears (+1) over BROWNS

* Eagles (+5) over VIKINGS

Contest Record last week: 4-1
Contest Record Year-to-date: 38-30-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 35-34-1

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 14

Skipped posting Week 13 picks. I went 4-1 last week (1-4 in "On the Bubble" picks)

Week 14 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Miami Dolphins

Pick 2: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over New York Giants

Pick 3: ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams

Pick 4: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills

Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS



ON THE BUBBLE:

* BENGALS (-6) over Colts

* FALCONS (+3.5) over Packers

* Cowboys (+1) over BEARS

* SAINTS (-3.5) over Panthers

* Chiefs (-3.5) over REDSKINS

Contest Record last week: 4-1
Contest Record Year-to-date: 34-29-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 31-33-1

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 12

Skipped posting another week of picks. I went 3-2 last week (1-4 in "On the Bubble" picks)

Week 12 Super Contest odds.

Week 12 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+9) over Detroit Lions

Pick 2: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+10) over Houston Texans

Pick 3: ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Pick 4: NY GIANTS (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Pick 5: OAKLAND RAIDERS (+1) over Tennessee Titans





ON THE BUBBLE:

* Chargers (+4.5) over CHIEFS

* Panthers (-4) over DOLPHINS

* PACKERS (-5) over Vikings

* Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS

* RAMS (-1) over Bears

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 27-26-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 28-27

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 10

I took a bye last week from picks to recover from all the beating I'm taking here. Kidding. I just forgot to post my picks. Went 3-2 in my picks, 2-3 in "On the Bubble" picks.

Week 10 Super Contest odds.

Week 10 Picks: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: TENNESSEE TITANS (-11.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick 2: Seattle Seahawks (-6) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Pick 3: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Pick 4: Denver Broncos (-7) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Pick 5: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* Panthers (+6) over 49ERS

* CARDINALS (-2.5) over Texans

* PACKERS (-1.5) over Eagles

* Redskins (-2.5) over Vikings

* Lions (-2.5) over Bears

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 21-22-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 25-20

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 8

I'm not even gonna try give an excuse... maybe I'm just not cut out for this.... arghhhhh!

Week 8 Super Contest odds.

And just my picks today with no explanation: (Home team in CAPS)


Pick 1: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins

Pick 2: CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over NY Jets

Pick 3: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Pick 4: Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS


ON THE BUBBLE:

* 49ers (-16.5) over Jaguars (played in London)

* EAGLES (-5.5) over NY Giants

* PACKERS (-9.5) over Vikings

* BROWNS (+7.5) over Chiefs

* Cowboys (+3.5) over Lions

Contest Record last week: 3-2
Contest Record Year-to-date: 16-18-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 19-16

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 7

Time to pick up my slack... gonna dig in real deep here....

Week 7 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: Denver Broncos (-6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I'm riding this Broncos offense to cover "less than a TD" spreads as long as .... well... it gets cold out there!

Pick 2: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2) over Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are just not so good. Especially on the road. The Steelers might get on a roll here to be a player in the AFC North. Watch out!

Pick 3: Chicago Bears (+1) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS
High scoring game here. The Redskins will keep this close. The Bears have a deceivingly bad secondary that depends far too much on turnovers. Will be a fun game!

Pick 4: San Francisco 49ers (-4) over TENNESSEE TITANS
The 49ers against Ryan Fitzpatrick? And Chris Johnson is going against that run D? I really like the 49ers here... even on the road

Pick 5: San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This spread is so attractive to pass up on. The Chargers are entering that sneaky good team zone. And the Jaguars .... meh!

ON THE BUBBLE:

* CHIEFS (-6.5) over Texans: Chiefs D vs those Texans D! Over/under on number of pick-6s this game?

* EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys: Going to be another high scoring game here. Wow these NFC East teams just hat to play D, uh?

* Patriots (-4) over JETS: Gronk or no Gronk, The Pats own the Jets. Plucky Jets might score a bit against this decimated Pats D, but Brady is not going to lose to the Jets.

* Bengals (+2.5) over LIONS: The Bengals D had a bad game against the Bills. Guess, they were just not prepared to defend the read option. Not much read option this week with the Lions. Riding the Bengals D here.

* Seahawks (-6.5) over CARDINALS: The Seahawks should win this low scoring game. Still think they win by more than a touchdown with the help of a defensive score. Hello Carson Palmer!

Contest Record last week: 1-4 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 13-16-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 16-14

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 6

Yikes!! A weekend of picks to forget.... lotta catching up to do.....

Here are the Week 5 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: CHICAGO BEARS (-7.5) over NY Giants
The Bears seem to be motivated to get back on track after last week's loss to the Saints. Could there be a better opponent to get back on track than the Giants this year. Even if it's on a Thursday night.

Pick 2: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Homer pick here. But I think the Packers should beat a slightly above average Ravens team. The Packers D are very under rated at this point. Might end up being a fairly low scoring game here.

Pick 3: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) over Detroit Lions
Yeah yeah...i know.. Brandon Weeden is starting for the Browns. But I am also betting that Detroit is not going to have Calvin Johnson this game. The Browns D might shutdown a Calvin-less Lions offense. Possibly a shut out!

Pick 4: Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Bengals D should be able to torment Thad Lewis. Yep, I said Thad Lewis!

Pick 5: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Taking the Chargers at home vs a mid-west team travelling out west for a night game, with a let-down game possibility added to the equation

ON THE BUBBLE:

* JETS (-2) over Steelers: This is more of a pick against the Steelers than me liking the Jets

* Eagles (-1.5) over Bucs: Mike Glennon anybody?

* Saints (+2.5) over Patriots: The Saints are IMO the best team in the league. Give them the edge over the Broncos just because they play D.

* COWBOYS (-5.5) over Redskins: The Redskins suck!

* 49ERS (-11) over Cardinals: The Cardinals D is really good. But Carson Palmer might give the niners a few short fields to work with.

Contest Record last week: 1-4 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 12-12-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 13-12

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 5

Hanging by a thread here... at least I'm not regressing... allegedly like the Colts were supposed to.

Here are the Week 5 Super Contest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) over Buffalo Bills
The Browns are on fire. Well.... relative to way they were (0-2) and considering their spark plugs have been Brian Hoyer and Josh Gordon; yep, they are on fire. The Bills on the road? No thank you!

Pick 2: New England Patriots (+2) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Tom Brady vs Andy Dalton! Yeah... i know my sorry ass packers (at least for that week) lost to this Bengals group on the road. Not happening against Brady and his unheralded group of plucky unrestricted free agents.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I'm going to ride these Seahawks on the road 'less than a FG' lines. Let down game for the Colts comes a week later than everyone expected.

Pick 4: Denver Broncos (-7.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
The Broncos offense can't be run any more efficiently than how Peyton Manning is doing it at the moment. Easy cover freight train!

Pick 5: San Diego Chargers (-4.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Can't believe this line is so low. Tyrell Pryor might start. But he's just a glorified fantasy star. Not someone that can beat even an average NFL team. Plus, these Chargers might be more than half decent. Well, at least on offense they are.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* FALCONS (-9.5) over Jets: Must win game for the Falcons at home against a rookie QB.

* PACKERS (-7) over Lions: Same logic as for the Falcons. And oh yeah, the Lions haven't won at Lambeau since 1991.

* Saints (PK) over BEARS: The Saints might in fact be the best team in teh NFC (sorry Seattle). We'll know in a few weeks.

* RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars: I have to pick against the Jaguars. Even if it means I'm betting on Sam Bradford! Yikes!!!!

* Panthers (-2) over CARDINALS: Sneaky good Panthers. Watch out for them along with the Titans (when Locker is back) to be the sneaky good surprises this year.

Contest Record last week: 3-1-1 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 11-8-1

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 10-10

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 4

Another mediocre 3-2 week for me. Hey, at least it's not getting worse... not yet anyways!

Here are the Week 4 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns did the opposite of what I thought they would do. They rallied together for a statement win. The statement being: "Management might want us to tank. But we are going to fight!". Well... that rally has run it's course. They usually don't last that long. Especially if you face a solid solid team like the Bengals.

Pick 2: Baltimore Ravens (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Ravens offense is going to have that high scoring aberration game against that sorry Bills defense.

Pick 3: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
I know the Seahawks are on the road. And the Texans are not an easy out. But the Seahwaks defense should keep this game close. And there are very few QBs in this league that I trust more in close games than Russel Wilson.

Pick 4: DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles
Peyton Manning is going to carve up that Eagles D..... yep... the Eagles have a D... i know it is hard to notice... unless of course they play Alex Smith. Even he was able to find Donnie Avery for large chunks of yards. Good Lord! Pay your mortgage, folks!

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3.5) over New York Jets
Yes. I'm still on the Titans' D train. They are going to feast on the rookie QB, who just played one of the worst defenses in the league (Bills). Welcome to the NFL moment for the rook!

ON THE BUBBLE:

* RAMS (+3) over 49ers: I expect this division game to be close and decided by a FG or less. Taking the home team that is given 3 points. duh! Plus, this is the Thursday Night game. Pay your mortgage with the under!

* Colts (-7.5) over  JAGUARS: The Colts will have to play really really bad to blow this one. This Jaguars team might get some garbage points to keep this close. But I expect a double digits Colts win.

* CHIEFS (-4) over Giants: Yep, I'm thinking the Giants are going to start 0-4. I know that old narrative of these cornered Giants. But I don't see anything in this team that suggests they have any semblance of fight left.

* Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCS: The Bucs are benching Josh Freeman. This is probably going to help them couple weeks down the line. But throwing that Glennon kid to the wolves not going to be pretty this week. The Cardinals have their own woes, but they should be alright this week.

* Dolphins (+6.5) over SAINTS: The Dolphins are for real? Let's see them prove it in prime time on MNF!

Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 8-7

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 7-8

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 3

Making some progress here. I'm probably going to be out of contention if I don't get a few 5-0 weeks now.

Here are the Week 3 SuperContest odds.

And my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns
The Browns just traded away their best player on offense. Benched their QB for Bryan Hoyer (And yeah, sugar coat it all you want, but he was benched!). The players are either going to pull together and play hard or, do just the opposite - crumble from the feeling that the management brass has given up on the year. I'm betting the later. The Vikings have their own QB controversy brewing, but may take a couple weeks before that's going to pop it's ugly head.

Pick 2: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS 
Yep. My homer pick. I think the Packers will win this game on the road. They are too good a team to start 1-2. Bengals are going to be a tough out though. Hoping the Packers O line can hold it's own against that dreaded Bengal's D-Line. Fingers crossed!

Pick 3: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots are giving only 7 points at home against teh 0-2 Bucs? Only 7 freaking points?!?! As Jason Whitlock would say ..... "Y'all ready to pay your mortgages?". And oh, the Gronk might be back too.

Pick 4: Indianapolis Colts (+10) over the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Nope. This ain't a hater pick. I just think with Trent Richardson now carrying the rock for the Colts, they should be able to cover this easy. Still expect the 49ers to win though.

Pick 5: TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) over San Diego Chargers
I'm riding the Titans' D-Train. They seem to be legit. Like them a lot this game, especially at home.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Lions (+2) over REDSKINS: Not sure the Redskins can beat anyone with that Defense.

* Jaguars (+19) over SEAHAWKS: I know! I'm probably the only one that's picking the Jags to cover. I just think 19 points are too much to leave on the table.

* SAINTS (-7) over Cardinals: The Saints D seems under rated. They might be sneaky good. Like the year they won the Super Bowl. Well... good enough to beat Carson Palmer and his hobbled offense anyway.

* COWBOYS (-4) over Rams: Expect this to be a shoot out. Cowboys gonna get this at home.

* Bears (-2.5) over STEELERS: Just picking against the Steelers here. Can't see them beating an average team, let alone a good Bears team.

And yeah... it feels like a " lotta favorites cover" kinda week!


Contest Record last week: 3-2 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 5-5

"ON THE BUBBLE" Record Year-to-date: 3-7

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 2

Ok, so that was not a hot start for me. Not by a long shot. Went just 2-3 last week. The silver lining is that two of the lines I didn't cover were because of: (1) a dumb late hit penalty by Tampa Bay and (2) a dumb pick 6 by Eli.

So, I'm going to delude myself to thinking I'm onto something here. Here are the Week 2 SuperContest picks.

On to my picks: (Home team in CAPS)

Pick 1: New York Jets (+11.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are a little beat up at WR and RB (Amendola and Vereen are mostly out). Rookie WRs are going to have growing pains. Divisional games are bound to be close more often than not. The Jets D might be legit too. I don't believe the Jets will win this game, but 11.5 is too many points to leave on the table.

Pick 2: CHICAGO BEARS (-6) over Minnesota Vikings
Coach Trestman has this offense humming. The O line looked surprisingly good. Cutler was sharp (except for one throw). Peanut Tillman in the secondary is still that good ol' ball hawk we know him to be. The Vikings looked awful against the Lions. With the Lions loading up defenders in the box, Ponder still couldn't throw much. Recipe for disaster if he can't even throw enough to keep defenses honest and give Adrian Peterson a chance to do his thing.

Pick 3: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) over San Francisco 49ers 
The Seahawks at home. Enough said!
........... And one more thing......... Clearly the Game of the Week! Can't wait!

Pick 4: Carolina Panthers (-3) over BUFFALO BILLS
The Panthers held their own on D against the Seahawks. EJ manual is not going to be any better than Russell Wilson. And the Bills Defense is not as scary as the Seahawks Defense.

Pick 5: Tennessee Titans (+9) over HOUSTON TEXANS
The Titans Defense looked stout. This game will tell me if that was more the ineptitude of the Steelers' offense, or if the Titans indeed are that good. I'm betting on the later.

ON THE BUBBLE:

* Once again leaving out my homer pick: PACKERS (-7.5) over Redskins. Just about 4.5 points more than what I'm comfortable with, given the Redskins could pile up garbage points.

* Jaguars (+5.5) over RAIDERS: I'm taking the points in this bottom feeder match up. Pretty confident neither of these two can win a game by over 5 points. Against anybody!

* Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS: The Bucs had a stinker last week. Not putting this in my top 5, because I want to see if the Bucs have a strong rebound. Or they might just be THAT bad!?!

* Lions (-1.5) over CARDINALS: The Lions just might be good. Definitely better than the Cardinals on paper. But can they avoid those dumb plays and put it together?

* Broncos (-4.5) over NY GIANTS: I'm taking Peyton Manning in this match up. But this also has some Giants' "rebound from a stinker" potential.


Contest Record last week: 2-3 
Contest Record Year-to-date: 2-3

"ON THE BUBBE" Record Year-to-date: 1-4

LVH SuperContest 2013 Trial: Week 1

I'm back! After a long (really really long) hiatus, I'm back!

Thinking of easing myself into writing here again; and not throw myself back to the wolves right away. Let's see how it goes.

Instead of doing the weekly game-by-game picks this season (which almost everyone with access to a computer and the internet does these days), I'm going to try simulate making my Vegas Hilton SuperContest picks here. It is my experiment to see how I'd fare in the real contest and maybe enter it someday (soon... next year.. maybe!).

Also going to drop a few lines with the picks, trying to explain the reasoning behind my picks.

I will be using the odds given by LVH (released every Wednesday around 5PM). You can find them here.

Here are my Week 1 Picks (Home team in CAPS):

Pick 1: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

Season opener at home for the Saints; they usually win those in the Superdome. Add to it that it's going to double up as a Sean Payton's welcome back party. Pretty strong feeling the Saints got this. The clincher for me is that, the probable regression to the mean for the Falcons (from last year's improbable good luck) is going to catch up to them.

Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are going to be bad. And that could easily be an understatement. The Buccaneers are expected to have an elite defense (especially their secondary) this year. Only if Josh Freeman from the first half of last season shows up, I'm sure I got this too. The under on this game will be a good bet too.

Pick 3: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It's week 1. I'm going to try feast on some tentative lines on games involving certain teams the wise guys (I think) do not seem to have a feel about yet. The Chiefs are one of them. I expect them to be good this year with new head coach Andy Reid and new QB Alex Smith. Weapons like a healthy Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe don't hurt. And did I mention they play the Jaguars this week?

Pick 4: NY Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Giants, of late, have had the Cowboys' number at Jerry World. I'm thinking that trend continues. The Cowboys have a talented roster. No question. But how much confidence can a Bill Callahan co-ordinated offense and a Monte Kiffin co-ordinated defense instill in you?    

Pick 5: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) over Miami Dolphins

The Browns are one of those teams that's expected to be taking a big step forward this year. Weeden has been good this pre-season (for whatever that's worth). Solid Defense coupled with Norv "the offensive co-ordinator" Turner's offense is gonna keep them in most games they play. The Dolphins are another team that's supposedly on an uptick; but I ain't buying that.


On the bubble:

* Was hard for me to leave out my homer pick, the Packers (+4.5) over the Niners. I just can't pick them Packers until I see their defense show some signs of containing the Niners with my own eyes, let alone stop them.

* The Seahawks (-3.5) over the Panthers seems like an easy pick on the surface. But I'm nervous to pick the Seahawks on the road. Maybe a few wins under their belt on the road early this season, and I might start riding them in this contest. Already plan on riding them at home a lot.

* Vikings (+5.5) over the Lions. Thinking.... Adrian Peterson on turf vs that Lions run D? .... Maybe I should have put this as one of my 5 supercontest picks!

* Patriots (-9.5) over the Bills. I need to see how explosive the Patriots offense will be this year with their new WRs and without their alleged felon TE.

* I also overcame the temptation to pick against the Raiders, even though they are given 9.5 points here. The Colts are another team that's expected to regress to the mean (along with the Falcons). I want to wait a week or two before involving these two teams in my final picks.


Contest Record last week: 0-0
Contest Record Year-to-date: 0-0

NFL 2011: Week 16 Picks

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)

The Colts are not win-less no more. But Colt fans are concerned they may end up with a better record than the Vikings or the Rams. Not to worry Colts fans! Your No.1 pick is safe. The Texans had a let down loss last week after winning their division. Not happening this week. 

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-6.5)


Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

The Raiders are in a free fall right now. Luckily for them, they get to play the Chiefs a week after the Chiefs beat the then undefeated Packers. Now this game has let down written all over it for the Chiefs. 

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (+2.5)
  

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3)


The Broncos under Tebow have been solid on the road. I expect them to keep that streak going against the Bills who have suddenly turned putrid. A win by the Broncos here, will pretty much seal the AFC West. Sorry, Chargers and Raiders!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (-3)
  

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-7)


The Jaguars are bad. On the road, they are horrible. If the Titans can handle MJD, this game will not even be close.  

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7) 


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)

The Dolphins have been hot of late. But not as hot as the Patriots. Especially coming of their win over Tebow...on the road. But I do see back door cover potential here.


Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+10)  


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Colt McCoy may not play this week. Not that it matters. It is the 'alternate game' for the Ravens where they play well and once again rope everyone into believing what a playoff threat they are to the entire league. Seen this act before.  

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-13) 


New York Giants at New York Jets (-3)

IMO.. too much of hype given to this game. It is all just because these are both teams from New York (although they play in Jersey... go figure!). How is this not the game where Eli plays brilliantly to keep the Giants playoffs hopes alive.

Outright Win: Gaints 
v/s the Spread: Giatns (+3) 


Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-6.5)

The Redskins should be able to take advantage of that Minnesota secondary to pull this one off, in spite of Rex Grossman. Unless he has one of his bad Rex days... not ruling that off.

Outright Win: Redskins
v/s the Spread: Redskins (-6.5) 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

The Bucs are horrible. enough said.

Outright Win: Panthers 
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-7.5) 


San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

This has the makings of a great game. Especially if the Broncos lose their early game. I am not going to pick against the chargers in December, though.

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (+2.5)  


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+2)

Nice win for the 49ers on Monday Night. But this game, at Seattle, has tremendous 'let down' potential.

Outright Win: Seahwaks 
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+2) 


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

The Cowboys, in spite of their record, have played extremely well over the last few weeks. The Eagles have been hot the lost couple weeks. Something's gotta give here. I say it is the Eagles.

Outright Win: Cowboys 
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-1.5) 


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Great NFC South showdown. Saints will expose the poser Falcons at home.

Outright Win: Saints 
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7) 



Upset Special of the Week


Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)

The Cardinals are good. But how good will they be on the road is the question. Both these teams have their playoff hopes alive at this point. And they will both play hard. I like the Cardinals here though, looking at the way they have played the last few weeks.


Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+4)  


Homer Pick of the Week


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Not perfect no more! No problem! We get to play the Forte-less Bears with Josh McCown as their QB? At Lambeau! I'll take that any day of the week!

But for the long haul, the Packers need to do something about their defense. And try get their O line healthy for the playoffs.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

SEAHAWKS (+2) over 49ers
Raiders (+2.5) over CHIEFS
Texans (-6.5) over COLTS
Broncos (-3) over BILLS
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Bucs


Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-8

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 153-71
v/s the Spread Record: 113-97-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 40-33-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 12/21/2011

NFL 2011: Week 15 Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11)

The Falcons don't need added advantage of a shorter week to beat the Jaguars. They get it anyways. Still, this will be a closer game than people think. The Jaguars have a sneaky good defense and MJD has been on a roll of late.


Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+11) 





Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) 




Must-win game for the Cowboys? You think? Lucky for them, they get a free-falling Buccaneers team. A Cowboys win here might mean the firing of Raheem Morris as the Head Coach of the Bucs. And I think the writing is on the wall. Unless of course the Cowboys find a way to lose again, as they do every December.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-7) 




Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-7)


 The Giants are one of those teams that I would hate to face in the playoffs (Steelers and Patriots are the others). But the Giants also have the penchant, like the Ravens, to play down (or up) to the level of their opponents. Not happening this week. I can't see Rex Grossman having three good weeks in a row. Sorry. Still it will be a close game.

Outright Win: Giants 
v/s the Spread: Redskins (+7) 




New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (+7)


The Saints are on the road again. But this time its the Vikings. If Adrian Peterson does not play, there is no way the Viking QBs play a flawless game. A couple turnovers by the Vikings will play into the strength of this Saints defense.

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-7) 





Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-6.5) 

The Texans are rolling with TJ Yates. Well, not exactly rolling, but, doing just enough to win. This week, the Panthers bring home a bad run defense, playing right into the strength of the Texans. Count another win for the Texans, who might end up winning a first round bye.



Outright Win: Texans 
v/s the Spread: Texans (-6.5) 




Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Titans have lost their division, but have an outside chance of making the playoffs through the wild card route (far fetched as it may be). No way are they giving the Colts their first win. And I will be kicking myself if the Colts manage to get the back door cover in this game too.


Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (-7) 




Cincinnati Bengals at St Louis Rams (+6.5)

The Rams are a mess. Enuf said.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-6.5) 



Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2)

The Bills are also a mess. And the Dolphins will be playing hard for their new/interim coach.


Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 




Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (+1.5)

The Raiders have not been the same since that Rolando McLain arrest. Then again, this is their first game at home since that incident. But I do not think it will make a difference.


Outright Win: Lions 
v/s the Spread: Lions (-1.5) 




New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+6)

The Patriots against Tebow? What a ratings bonanza for the NFL? On paper, it seems ripe for an interesting match up. Tebow vs the bad Pats pass defense. The Patriots offense vs the solid Denver defense. But let's be real folks! No way Tom Brady is getting Tebow'ed. I don't even think Tebow covers here.


Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-6) 




New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Eagles still have an outside shot at the playoffs. I'm not kidding. But that hope will be lost this week. The Jets should be able to pull this win, just like they have been doing the past few weeks. Also, Shonne Green could be running amok against the Eagles Defense.


Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (+3) 




Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are GOOD at home. Take them (giving the points) against the Browns that are anemic on offense.

 
Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (-6.5) 




Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (+2.5)

The Ravens will want to take this. Playoff seeding at stake. But this is December and the Chargers peak around this time. Will be a good close game none the less. 


Outright Win: Ravens 
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-2.5) 






Pittsburgh Steelers at San Fransisco 49ers (-1) 

This will be a great game. The Steelers will want this to keep pace with the Ravens (assuming they win). The 49ers know that they can't afford to lose any game here on to protect their No.2 seed position. Looking at the match up, the Steelers can air it out (assuming Big Ben plays), and that is the Achilles's heel of the 49ers defense. And the Steelers D is no slouch against the run. Need I say more?

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (+1) 






Upset Special of the Week


Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Bears kinda suck without Cutler and Forte on offense. And just got Tebow'ed. The Seahawks are not as daunting on the road as they are on the road. Still, I think the Seahawks have enough offense to score more than the Bears can. Unless, of course Devin Hester has his way.


Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+3.5) 




Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+14)

The Packers are getting to play Kyle Orton (if he's healthy) for the second time this year, this time for the Chiefs. I have no doubt in my mind that the Packers should win this one. Only concern: hope they come out as healthy as they go into this game.

As much as I want the Packers to go for perfection, the thought that one hit could derail the whole season makes me cringe. All I can do is wait and see what happens.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-14) over CHIEFS
Patriots (-6) over BRONCOS
TEXANS (-6.5) over Panthers
Titans (-7) over COLTS
DOLPHINS (-2) over Bills

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 11-5

v/s the Spread Record: 7-9

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 144-64
v/s the Spread Record: 105-89-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 38-30-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 12/14/2011

NFL 2011: Week 14 Picks

12-0! Phew!!

NFC North Champs! Go Pack Go!

on to the picks....


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

The Browns are going to get clobbered here. At Pitt, on a short week, with the Steelers rolling right now. Odds are stacked against you Cleveland. The Steelers are getting into that playoff gear and they scare me as a Packer fan.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-14)

Rest of the picks... later this week.....

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-16.5)

The Ravens will have to win to stay ahead of the Steelers in their division race. If that was not motivation enough, they face the Colts!

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-16.5)


Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

TJ Yates has been impressive in his last two outings (for a rookie). But that streak of winning with backup QBs ends for the Texans here. The Bengals may not be a dominant team at home, but they might be just good enough to win this and hang around in the AFC North race.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-3)


Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-9)

The Jets have not been impressive at all in their last few games, but have managed to win a few in unenviable fashion to keep their playoff hopes high. I think that trend continues here. Hello Palko!

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-9)


Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Mike Vick might be back, and the Eagles maybe starting to get healthy. But I do not see how the Eagles stop the Dolphins running game. If the Dolphins can only contain Vick a little bit, they should be able to pull this off. And it helps that the Eagles are not that good after all.

Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-3)
 

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Patriots just suffered a backdoor cover against the Colts last week. They should have no problem covering this spread though. Even on the road at Washington.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-8)
 

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3)

The Panthers have been playing good of late on offense. Even if they turn this into a shoot out, I don't see them beating the Falcons. Expect Turner to have a monster game here. But then again, who knows what could happen in a divisional game.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-3)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2)

The Bucs are real bad.... and so are the Jaguars. But I trust the Jaguars defense, playing at home, and MJD will make that slight difference to take this snooze-fest.

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (+2)


Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-10)

The Lions just have to have this game, if they have any hopes of making the playoffs. The Vikings will try stop their losing streak here. But I don't see the latter happening.

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-10)


St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10)

Seattle is at home. No Bradford. The rest of the Rams seem to have already given up on the season. Unless Stephen Jackson wills his team here, its hard to even see them cover.

Outright Win: Seahwaks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (-10)


San Francisco 49ers  at Arizona Cardinals (+4)

The 49ers just clinched their division last week. The Cardinals are also hot, all of a sudden, especially at home. This has upset/letdown game written all over it, doesn't it? This will be the toughest test for Harbaugh to see if he can keep the minds of his players in it.

Outright Win: Cardinals
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (-4)


Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Tebow-mania continues! Not much threat to be expected from Caleb Hannie and Marion Barber. Only hope for Chicago here is for their defense to score or Devin Hester to return a kick or two all the way home!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (-3.5)


Buffalo Bills at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The Chargers have finally managed to pull together two good performances in a row. The Bills, coming into San Diego are in a funk of their own. I think the Chargers string another good game, but the Bills manage to keep it close and cover.

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Bills (+7)


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Classic NFC East showdown! Or so it would seem. I have a feeling this is going to be a blow out one way or the other. Law of averages would suggest, the Cowboys are due a win over the Giants at their new stadium. (Cowboys are 0-2). But my money is on the Giants to build off their momentum from last week's almost upset of the Packers.

Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (+3)



Upset Special of the Week

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

The Saints have been prolific on offense the last couple weeks. But now, they are on the road! Not the same comfort level for Brees and his receiving group away from the Super-dome. And Chris Johnson is heating up. I see the Titans pulling off an upset here. A close one, none-the-less.

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (+3.5) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-11)

The Raiders are banged up. The Packers are 12-0! The Raiders haven't won in the state of Wisconsin... for ever. The Packers are 12-0! The Raiders will have to hope their defense can keep the Packers scoring under control. The Packers are 12-0!

Also a win here will extend the Packers winning streak to 19 games, in sole possession of the second longest winning streak in the history of the league.

Outright Win: Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-11)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

PACKERS (-11) over Raiders
Patriots (-8) over Redskins
JAGUARS (+2) over Bucs
Falcons (-3) over PANTHERS
DOLPHINS (-3) over Eagles

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 12-4
v/s the Spread Record: 9-7

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 133-59
v/s the Spread Record: 98-80-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 35-28-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 12/07/2011

NFL 2011: Week 13 Picks

Eleven-and-Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Week 13 Picks:

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

The Bills almost pulled off a win against the Jets. I will not read too much into it though. The Titans might have a chance here to close things a little in the AFC South. At the least, it might make the Texans sweat a little.

Outright Win: Titans 
v/s the Spread: Titans (+1.5)


Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (-7)

Classic match up of marquee quarterbacks.... NOT! Not many in America will be excited to watch Tyler Palko (or Kyle Orton) take on the great Caleb Hannie. The Bears will win this easy as long as Hannie doesn't make too many plays for the Chiefs.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-7) 


Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3)

The Raiders might have the inside track for the AFC West. But a loss here to Miami might bring them back to the pack in their division. The Dolphins have been playing some gutsy football of late. And the Raiders travel across the coast for this one.

Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-3) 


Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

The Bengals need this game for sure if they want to keep their hopes high for a playoff spot. A loss here will put them in bad shape for any tie break rules that may apply among wild card teams. Then again, the Steelers play ugly, but somehow manage to pull out wins week after week.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+6.5) 


New York Jets at Washington Redskins (+3)

This game will be closer than people think it will be. The Jets are simply not good. Neither are the Redskins. Still, I'll take the Jets defense vs Grossman over the Redskins Defense vs Sanchez.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-3) 


Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (+3)

TJ Yates? And with the Falcons run defense curtailing the Texans run game. Dare I say, the writing is on the wall? But the Falcons on the road does scare me a little.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-3) 


Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Blount is going to have a huuuuuuuge day here, feasting on the Panthers run defense. The Panthers might able to keep it a little close for a while. But I see a easy Bucs win here.

Outright Win: Bucs
v/s the Spread: Bucs (-3) 


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-20.5)

The first time a line is more than 20 points in over 20 years! And I think that line is not high enough!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-20.5) 


Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+6.5)

As tempting as it is to pick the Ravens to have a let down game, I just can't get myself to pick Colt McCoy and the Browns here, even though they are at home.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-6.5) 


St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

As much as I don't like the 49ers offense to cover a spread as high as high as this, they are playing the Rams! 49ers will want to pound the rock, the Rams have one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Rams offense is centered upon Stephen Jackson and the run game. The 49ers will just shut down the run. It's like the perfect match up for the 49ers on offense and defense.

Outright Win: 49ers  
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-13.5) 


Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

The Cowboys are on a four game win streak. Although the streak is impressive, each win by itself is not. Adding to it that the Cardinals always give the Cowboys a tough game, this could be a tricky game for the Cowboys. Still I don't see Skelton derailing the Cowboys' quest for the NFC East title.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-4.5) 


Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Talking about derailing. A loss here could make the Lions tailspin official. Playing this game at New Orleans makes it all the more tougher. Especially against the red hot Saints team (at home).

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-9) 


San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

The Chargers, with all their talent on their roster, got to win a game sometime, right?

Outright Win: Chargers
v/s the Spread: Chargers (-3) 


Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-2)

I guess the line on this game is assuming Adrian Peterson will not play. I think even if he plays, the Broncos got this one. Teeebowwwwwww!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+2)


Upset Special of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

The Eagles have Vince Young at QB. They got to play at Seattle! The Eagles are essentially out of the playoff race. They got to play at Seattle! There is the Desean Jackson fiasco. They got to play at Seattle! They can't stop the run. They got to play at Seattle! The shouts for firing Andy Reid is getting louder by the minute. The Eagles got to travel cross country to Seattle. And oh, it's also a short week. They got to play at Seattle!

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+3) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (+7.5)

The Packers are 11-0. But they are statistically not as dominant as 11-0 teams of past years. But the most important thing here is that they are getting it done week after week.

But I can't help but think about the perfect storm that could be brewing for the game against the Giants. The Packers offense has been so good; flawless at times; the first 11 weeks this season. They are due for a stinker sometime. As a fan, I would like that to happen sooner than later. The Packers current win streak of 17 games started with their win against the Giants in Week 15 last season. Could the Giants be the ones that put an end to this impressive streak? Although, there is not "recipe" to beat the Packers this season yet, one way to put pressure on this offense is to pressure Rodgers with only four pass rushers. The Giants have the personnel to do this as well as anybody else in the league. They do have enough weapons on offense to keep pace in a shoot out if need be, too.

But if the Giants show up like they did on Monday night, this game could be over real fast.

Nope, I am not willing to pick against the Packers.... just yet.


Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-7.5)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6.5) over GIANTS
PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts
FALCONS (-3) over Texans
SEAHAWKS (+3) over Eagles
Broncos (+2) over VIKINGS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 14-2
v/s the Spread Record: 9-5

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 121-55
v/s the Spread Record: 89-73-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 33-25-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/30/2011

NFL 2011: Week 12 Picks

Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh! Ten-and-oh!

Go Pack Go!

On to the Picks.....

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

The Dolphins have been playing some inspired football the last few weeks. I still do not trust their pass defense so much. But their overall defense has kept them in games, and Matt Moore has capitalized on them. The Cowboys remain this hot and cold team; just as all their counterparts in the NFC East. Which Cowboys team will show up on turkey Day?

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (+7)
 

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

As much as I like the style of the 49ers and the way they will themselves to stay in games against good teams. I don't think they can overcome the combination of a short week and the Ravens that plays up (or down) to their competition.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Ravens (-3) 


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets(-9)

Two horrid teams fighting each other for a chance to be relevant in the AFC. The Bills have officially lost their mojo. The Jets never really seemed to have it.Too many injuries for the Bills to cover this spread.

Outright Win: Jets
v/s the Spread: Jets (-9)


Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

The Browns have four wins. No, I'm not kidding. FOUR wins. But if you watch them play, you will understand how underwhelming they look on the field. The Bengals, on the other hand, have played toe to toe with the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks. This should be a piece of cake for them.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (-7.5) 


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

The Texans may not have Matt Schaub. But their running game has been clicking in all cylinders, it should not matter so much. And add the return of Andre Johnson to the mix. If Matt Leinart just doesn't turn the ball over, the Texans might be better than the last few weeks. The Jaguars are who they are. A team with a weak offense and sneaky good defense. But they are not going to sneak up on a division rival.

Outright Win: Texans
v/s the Spread: Texans (-3.5) 


Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Panthers finally get a game they can win in spite of that horrible defense. The Colts might get a few yards, but win a game? I just don't see it.

Outright Win: Panthers
v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

The Titans have been inconsistent ever since Kenny Britt went down. But with the struggling Bucs in town, they might be able to hang with the Texans for at least one more week. The Bucs also give up a lot of yards on the ground. Hello Chris Johnson!

Outright Win: Titans
v/s the Spread: Titans (-3) 


Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)

No Adrian Peterson. No problem for the Falcons.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-9.5)  


Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (-4) 

Cutler is out for a few weeks. The Bears will definitely miss him. Yes, the Bears anyways ran their offense through Forte the last few weeks. And their defense and special teams played a big part in their success. But with no Cutler, opposing defenses will load up the box to stop Forte and try make Caleb Hannie beat them through the air.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-4)
  

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The Redskins managed to almost pull off a win against the Cowboys last week. Only reason I think of for the redskins playing them Cowboys tough: divisional opponent. This time on the road at Seattle, its not going to be that easy.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)  


Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5)

The Chiefs may start Tyler Palko or Kyle Orton (who they picked up on waivers today). Whoever they start, I like the Steelers to cover the spread here.

Outright Win: Steelers
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-10.5)
  

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Everybody is down on the Giants this week. Which means the good Giants team will show up. The problem is the Saints are at home and are incredibly tough to beat. Something's gotta give, right?

Outright Win: Saints
v/s the Spread: Giants (+7) 


Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams (NL)

No line on this game because of the uncertainty on who will start as QB for the Cardinals. Like that matters? Oh no wait, its against the Rams, so it might matter.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: N/A 


New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

Uncertainty about the availability of Mike Vick is the reason for no line here. This is an important game for the Eagles, if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their best chance to do it is if they had Mike Vick in to exploit the Patriots defense. Vince Young might be a "winner", but not when its a shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: N/A


Upset Special of the Week

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-6)

I'm a believer. Timmy Tebow will get it done on the road this time. And he has Norv Turner and Phillip Rivers to shoot themselves in their feet at crunch time to assist him. Tebow now also has added motivation given by his own boss, John Elway unintentionally!

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+6) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6.5)

I'm loving this. All the pundits are picking the Lions in an upset here. Which is exactly where the Packers want public opinion to be.

At the same time, I'd be lying if I didn't say I am nervous. The Lions are freaking dangerous.

The Lions match up well against the strengths of the Packers: on offense. They can totally hang with the Packers. To help both teams, both defenses are below average and tend to give up a lot of yards. This is where I am hoping for the Packers to make just more enough game changing plays, maybe turnovers, to make the difference. Fingers crossed!

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6.5)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6.5) over LIONS
Panthers (-3) over COLTS
TITANS (-3) over Buccaneers
SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins
Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 11-3
v/s the Spread Record: 6-6-2

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 107-53
v/s the Spread Record: 80-68-8

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 30-23-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/23/2011

NFL 2011: Week 11 Picks

Nine-and-oh, baby! Yeah!!!!!

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2)

The hot up start Bills have now cooled down. The Dolphins on the other hand have been playing some good football. Their  two game win streak may not be against great teams, but they are good enough to beat mediocre ones; the Bills are one such team at this point.
 
Outright Win: Dolphins
v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-2) 


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals might have lost to the Steelers last week. But they did show some resolve in coming back from being down 14 points and keeping this close till the end. Unfortunately, the Ravens just lost to the Seahawks and are going to be hungry for another win. I still like the Bengals to keep this close.

Outright Win: Ravens
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+7) 


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (0)

This game has snoozer written all over it. Both these teams have decent enough defenses. Good enough to stymie each other's offenses. I think I'm going to toss a coin to decide this. For real. (Heads - Jaguars and Tails - Browns. Tossing ..... Heads it is!)

Outright Win: Jaguars
v/s the Spread: Jaguars (0) 


Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Could Carson Palmer really be as good as he seemed last Thursday? Or was it just a mirage? The Vikings were killed at Lambeau, but they are sneaky good especially if Adrian Peterson can get his legs going early in the game. Still, I think the Raiders have enough in them to pull this off on the road.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Raiders (-1) 


Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7) 

The Lions had their worst outing of the season last week at Soldier Field in Chicago. This will be the game that will show us if that was just a blip, or if the Lions are really spiraling  out of contention this season. They should win this game, but by how much is the question. Nothing says they are back on track than a blow out win against the lowly Panthers

Outright Win: Lions
v/s the Spread: Lions (-7) 


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+8)

The Cowboys are catching the Redskins at the right time. Or maybe this is how the Redskins are going to be rest of the season. They have NO offense. What so ever. A win here will keep Dallas in the NFC East title hunt, right behind the Giants. 

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-8) 


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The Cardinals suddenly find themselves with a two game win streak. Thanks to... wait for it... John Skelton? Ok, now that's not going to last. Not when you have the up start 49ers coming to town. Talking about the niners. They are done with the tough part of their schedule. 5 of their next 6 games are against he NFC West. Phew! The Packers better look out, a small slip up could see the 49ers taking the No.1 seed.

Outright Win: 49ers
v/s the Spread: Cardinals (+9.5) 


Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams (-1)

Another NFC West match up. The Seahawks beat the Ravens last week. But this one is on the road. And the Rams are seem to be finding their footing. Bradford to Lloyd connection can only get better. In spite of the Seahawks being pretty good against the run, Stephen Jackson is a beast.

Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (-1) 


Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

The see saw ride for the Titans continues. Except for maybe the fact that Chris Johnson could be making a mid-season resurgence. The Falcons are not so hot either. Especially after that 4th down debacle in OT against the Saints. Still, they are at home again. I think they win a close one here

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Titans (+6) 


San Diego Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Chargers are just not good this year. Can we all accept that and stop acting surprised every time they goof up? Exact opposite for the Bears. Can we stop acting surprised when the Bears beat good teams? They are GOOD. Especially at home.

Outright Win: Bears
v/s the Spread: Bears (-3.5) 


Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-14.5)

The Chiefs were not that good to begin with. And now with Tyler Palko playing QB, the question really is how big of a blow out this game is going to be.And oh by the way, the Patriots defense might be making a second half comeback this season. Only this time 2003-04 style (no name defensive players making plays all over the field... hello Julian Edleman!). Watch out folks!

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Patriots (-14.5) 


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3.5)

Mike Vick most probably won't play this game. The Giants after their loss last week will want to rebound real bad. Vince Young and the porous Eagles run defense will help the giants rack up a win here. But just for high drama's (and high comedy) sake, I would love to see Vince Young carry the Eagles to win here on the road. Will that brew up a QB controversy in Philly?


Outright Win: Giants
v/s the Spread: Giants (-3.5)


Upset Special of the Week

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+7)

Call me crazy. But I think the Broncos have more than a shot at winning this game. The Jets D is great at defending the pass. I'll give them that. Problem here is Timmy Tebow ain't gonna throw that much. The Jets run defense is nothing to sneeze at, but it's been sub par on the road so far this season. The big match up I'll be looking for here is how the Jets offense can do against the Broncos defense. If Von Miller and gang can torment Sanchez all day, the Broncos have a legit shot at this. Add to it the Jets had like three days to prepare for this game.

Outright Win: Broncos
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+7) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14)

The 9-0 Packers are due a let down game anytime now. Especially this week, coming off what people think was their first "complete" game of the season (offense, defense and special teams). Only problem: Aaron Rodgers remembers the last two times he played the Bucs, he had bad games. And knowing Rodger's penchant for keeping mental notes and getting motivation out of it. He is going to have a big game here.

And yeah, the Bucs kinda suck too.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-14)


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers
Cowboys (-8) over REDSKINS
PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Chiefs
RAMS (-1) over Seahawks
PACKERS (-14) over Buccaneers

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-7
v/s the Spread Record: 8-7

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 96-50
v/s the Spread Record: 74-62-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 28-20-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/16/2011

NFL 2011: Week 10 Picks

Its Week 10. The Packers are 8-0. Life is good.

Now on to the picks:


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-7)

The AFC West seems to be a mess at the moment. Three teams are tied at 4-4 and the Broncos are right behind, trailing by just one game. This game is not only important for both teams to get ahead in the standings, but a tie breaker edge will go a long way especially in such a close division.

Outright Win: Chargers

v/s the Spread: Chargers (-7) 


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

The Bengals finally get a quality opponent to prove to the rest of the league that they are for real. The Steelers on the other hand, get a chance to keep up with the Ravens in the AFC North. Although same can be said about the Bengals. This game will show us a lot more about the Bengals than the Steelers.

Outright Win:  Steelers

v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3) 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Tim Tebow fever was revived last week after they beat the Raiders in the black hole. But doing the same at Arrow Head will be harder. Still, never say never with Tebow. Especially after the Chiefs struggled last week against the win-less Dolphins. This might be the typical rebound game for the Chiefs after a tough loss.

Outright Win:  Chiefs

v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-3) 


Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3)

The Jaguars had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. That's way too much time for an opponent that seems to be tanking on purpose. Add to the equation that the Jaguars defense is sneaky good; especially their pass defense.

Outright Win:  Jaguars

v/s the Spread: Jaguars (-3) 


Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bills had a tough loss against the Jets, who just shut their offense down. Period. The Cowboys might have a better front four than the Jets. But the Dallas secondary is weak. The Bills should score some, and the Cowboys should be able to score against the Bills too. That kid Demarco Murray seems to be for real. I think this will be a close game at the end.

Outright Win: Cowboys

v/s the Spread: Bills (+5.5) 



Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

The Texans after a couple of weeks of facing bad teams, face an average to above average teams. Can their offense keep up the good work? The Bcus have their own problems. Josh Freeman seems to have regressed this season. And the Legarette Blount isn't the burner he shows glimpses of being.

Outright Win: Texans

v/s the Spread: Texans (-3) 



Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3)

The Titans are really missing Kenny Britt to get their offense going. Chris Johnson had a decent game last week. If at all he is going to have a break out game, it would be this week against the Panthers. Cam Newton will have another good game to pad up his candidacy for the rookie of the year. This time, it might come with a Win.

Outright Win: Panthers

v/s the Spread: Panthers (-3) 


Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (-4)

The Redskins are bad. Really bad. They find it so hard to score any points these days. Miami is coming off their first win of the season. You might think that will lead to a let down game this week. But not against this Redskins team. And the Dolphins have a pretty good defense.

Outright Win: Dolphins

v/s the Spread: Dolphins (-4) 


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (PK)

This is a huge game for the NFC South race. The Falcons seem to getting back on track. I will be convinced of that only if they can show up and play this game tight. The Saints seem to struggle on the road this season. The dome in Atlanta will be loud and ready for them.

Outright Win: Falcons

v/s the Spread: Falcons (0) 


St Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

The Rams have a chance if Stephen Jackson carries this team on his back. They might need a little more from Sam Bradford and the WRs more as a decoy to clear lanes for Jackson. The Rams defense does not face a big challenge when facing the Browns. Still, the Brown might have just enough in them, if they can only keep it close in the first quarter.

Outright Win: Browns

v/s the Spread: Browns (-2.5) 



Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)

This is going to be a closely fought NFC North game. The Lions beat the Bears at home earlier in the year. This time, the Lions will not have their crowd noise that helped get so many Bears penalties at Soldier Field. Also, it is going to be cold in the mid-west this week. Advantage Bears.

Outright Win: Bears

v/s the Spread: Bears (-3) 


New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

The Giants managed to pull off another upset of the Patriots, this time at Foxboro. It felt so eerily like that Super Bowl game in 2008 (2007-08 season). Now the Giants are on the road against the up start 49ers. This could be a let down game for the Giants, except that the complacency might be mitigated by the fact that they are playing a team that has just one loss on the season. The 49ers on the other hand, have not played may teams this season which are as good as the Giants all round.

Outright Win: Giants 

v/s the Spread: Giants (+3.5) 


New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1)

Patriot fans have their hands on the panic button. But they don't have to. Yup, their defense is in shambles, and Tom Brady has not been so hot last couple weeks. Still, they have Tom Brady! They will be alright. The Jets seem to be finding their identity again, especially on defense. This what makes this an interesting meeting this week.

Outright Win:  Patriots

v/s the Spread: Patriots (+1) 


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (NL)

The Cardinals secondary is the exact medicine this beaten up Eagles offense needs. I don't think this will be a 20+ point blowout. But the Eagles should have a comfortable victory under their belt here. Also, Skelton filling in for Kevin Kolb makes it a little easier for the Eagles on defense too.

Outright Win: Eagles

v/s the Spread: N/A


Upset Special of the Week


Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (+7)

The Ravens are coming of an emotional win against the Steelers. Recipe for a let down game? There is definitely a chance especially at Seattle. Joe Flacco won one last week. Don't think he can do it again. And Seattle has a sneaky good run defense to hold off Ray Rice.

Outright Win: Seahawks
v/s the Spread: Seahawks (+7) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

The Packers are 8-0..... (Pinching myself...) ... Yup, 8-and-freaking-0!

Still, there are a lot of concerns for this Packer team. The offense is alright. Rodgers is playing at an MVP level, and that could be an understatement, if it is even possible. The problem is the Packers seem to be relying solely on the offense to carry them week in and week out. The defense seems to be making some big plays sporadically. But, they still rank near the very end on pass defense. And give up a ton of yards overall. Zeroing on specifics, they are not generating enough pass rush with their defensive front. Bringing in extra men, isn't helping much either. The new problem they had this week is communication breakdown in the secondary leading to big plays to the opponents. I would like to think these are all correctable issues. Fingers crossed.

This week will be a good time to correct some of those against the Vikings.

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-13.5) 


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

BEARS (-3) over Lions
DOLPHINS (-4) over Redskins
Steelers (-3) over BENGALS
SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens
Jaguars (-3) over COLTS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 8-6
v/s the Spread Record: 8-6

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 87-43
v/s the Spread Record: 66-55-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 23-20-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/09/2011

NFL 2011: Week 9 Picks

My lack of preparation time for last week showed up in my abysmal Week 8 picks against the spread. Hoping to do better this time around:

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Falcons have an easy date with the Colts coming off tehir bye week. They should be able to take care of business here; almost a second bye week in a row. On the other side, the hush hush "suck for luck" campaign by the Colts continues.

Outright Win: Falcons
v/s the Spread: Falcons (-7) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

The Saints' roller coaster ride will continue. They will dominate the Bucs at home this week. Josh Freeman suddenly seems to have lost that cool composure vibe he used to give out.

Outright Win:  Saints
v/s the Spread: Saints (-8.5) 

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-11)

The Browns seem to be losing their games in the first quarter, when they are heavily outscored. They can keep this close if they can just curtail the Texans offense in the begining. Easier said than done. The Texans have the inside track for the AFC South division. They would just like to sail through the rest of the games without the usual Kubiak floundering in the second half of the season.

Outright Win:  Texans
v/s the Spread: Browns (+11) 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

I am still not confident of the Jets. I think the Bills will end up being the 2nd best team in their division behind the Patriots (if they are not already). Expect this to be a low scoring game, with a lot of running from both teams.

Outright Win: Bills
v/s the Spread: Bills (-1.5) 

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

The Chiefs are tied for first place in their division after that horrid start? Really got to give it up to the splendid coaching job there by the Chiefs' staff. With the Chargers barely able to stand by themselves and the Raiders going with the Palmer experiment, the Chiefs might have a good shot at winnign their division again. And what better way to rack up a win, than by playing the Dolphins at home.

Outright Win: Chiefs
v/s the Spread: Chiefs (-4) 

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

The 49ers are probably not favored more in this game, just because they got to travel cross country and play in the Eastern time zone. The Redskins have nothing on offense with John Beck at QB and that slew of injuries. The 49ers are on pace to clich their division by Thanksgiving.

Outright Win: 49ers 
v/s the Spread: 49ers (-3.5) 

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-12)

The Cowboys are coming of a bad loss on the road. They should be able to get back on track with the futile Seattle offense coming to town. To me, this line should be higher, given that the Caowboys will play with more urgency after the Eagles loss.

Outright Win: Cowboys
v/s the Spread: Cowboys (-12) 

St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Its one of those NFC west showdowns that seems to be inconsequential given that the 49ers are almost a lock to win this division.


Outright Win: Rams
v/s the Spread: Rams (+3)

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-8)

Tim Tebow vs Carson Palmer. This is the dream match up for people that love to watch efficient QB play.... NOT. There will be INTs. There will be tons of incompletions. There might even be a few pick 6s. But the Raiders running game might see them through this, especially at home. But I like the Broncos to keep it close and cover with some garbage time points.

Outright Win: Raiders
v/s the Spread: Broncos (+8) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Ttians (-3)

Andy Dalton! Dare I say, the under the radar front runner for the offensive Rookie of the year? Then Bengals are 5-2. And tied for 2nd place in the AFC North. They are also catching the Titans at the right time, when they are struggling on offense.

Outright Win: Bengals
v/s the Spread: Bengals (+3) 

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-8.5)

Bill Bellichick and Tom Brady are playing after a losing week. Enough Said! I expect this to be a closely fought shoot out.

Outright Win: Patriots
v/s the Spread: Giants (+8.5) 

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers will want to avenge their  Week 1 humiliation at the hands of the Ravens. And this time, they know how the Ravens offense is not so hot under the always flustered Joe Flacco. I expect the Steelers to win big here.

Outright Win: Steelers 
v/s the Spread: Steelers (-3.5) 


Upset Special of the Week

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)

Yeah, the Eagles beat hte Cowboys in a blowout. But if we know anything about this Eagles offense, its that they are very inconsistent under Vick. I would be eating my words if they let McCoy carry the team with the running game. But I don't see Andy Reid doing that. Moreover, the Bears are well known for surprising people when everyone thinks they are down.

Outright Win: Bears 
v/s the Spread: Bears (+8) 


Homer Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers (+6)

The Chargers just find a way to shoot themselves in their foot. They just do. And its no secret anymore. The Chargers have never been 6 point (or more) underdogs at home since 2003.

The Packers are coming of a bye, and are facing a banged up Chargers who may not have their best 3 running backs healthy for the game Sunday. But, this could be that obvious trap game for the Packers. Yes, they had 2 weeks to prepare for the Bolts, but the underwhelming Chargers performance on Monday could easily put complacency in the Packers. And that listless performance by the Chargers will only make them play harder this week. So, this game will be a challenge for the Packers. A possibility at an undefeated half season is on the line here. Will the Packers show up in the form they were before the bye week?

Outright Win:  Packers
v/s the Spread: Packers (-6) 


My 5 STAR Picks   (* Home team in CAPS)

Packers (-6) over CHARGERS
CHIEFS (-4) over Dolphins
STEELERS (-3.5) over Ravens
49ers (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Falcons (-7) over COLTS

Last Week:

Outright Win Record: 9-4
v/s the Spread Record: 5-8

Year to Date:

Outright Win Record: 79-37
v/s the Spread Record: 58-49-6

5 STAR Picks:

Overall Record: 20-19-1

* Odds as per "sportsbook.com" on 11/02/2011